2025/08/20 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
The trade balance reached a surplus of USD 1.0 billion in July, somewhat below the USD 1.5 billion surplus registered in the same month of 2024. The surplus was above market expectations according to the central bank's survey, with analysts estimating a surplus of USD 0.7 billion. The 12-month rolling trade balance fell to a surplus of USD 10.5 billion in July, down slightly from USD 11.0 billion in the previous month. At the margin, the seasonally-adjusted annualized trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 10.6 billion in July, from a surplus of USD 6.5 billion in the previous month.
Exports increased in the quarter ended in July. Total exports rose by 3.2% yoy in the period, following a 1.4% gain in 2Q25. Exports of other industrial products rose by 6.0% yoy in the same period, led by ground transportation (down from an increase of 6.6% yoy in 2Q25). On the other hand, agricultural exports, including manufactured agricultural products, rose by by 1.7% yoy in the period (from -1.1% yoy in 2Q25). On a sequential basis, exports rose by 9.0% qoq/saar in July.
Imports increased in the quarter ended in July. Total imports rose by 27.2% yoy in the period (from a gain of 34.3% yoy in 2Q25). Imports of capital goods increased by 46.9% yoy in the quarter ended in July, while imports of consumer goods (including cars) rose by 95.3% yoy. Moreover, imports of intermediate goods rose by 4.0% yoy in the period. On a sequential basis, imports rose by 0.1% qoq/saar in July.
The energy trade surplus widened in July. The rolling 12-month balance reached USD 6.8 billion in July, above USD 6.7 billion in the previous month. Energy exports rose by 5.0% yoy in the quarter ended in July, while oil imports fell by 38.1% yoy in the same period.
Our take: We forecast a trade surplus of USD 8.0 billion for this year. The trade balance figures for August will be published on September 18.
Diego Ciongo
Soledad Castagna