2025/09/18 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
The trade balance reached a surplus of USD 1.4 billion in August, below the USD 1.9 billion surplus registered in the same month of 2024. The surplus was above market expectations according to the central bank's survey, with analysts estimating a surplus of USD 0.8 billion. The 12-month rolling trade balance fell to a surplus of USD 9.9 billion in August, down slightly from USD 10.4 billion in the previous month. At the margin, the seasonally-adjusted annualized trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 12.9 billion in August, from a surplus of USD 10.3 billion in the previous month.
Exports increased in the quarter ended in August. Total exports rose by 11.7% yoy in the period, following a 1.4% gain in 2Q25. Exports of other industrial products rose by 2.2% yoy in the same period (down from an increase of 6.6% yoy in 2Q25). Moreover, agricultural exports, including manufactured agricultural products, rose by by 12.5% yoy in the period (from -1.1% yoy in 2Q25) boosted by the end of lower export duties. On a sequential basis, exports rose by 37.2% qoq/saar in August.
Imports increased in the quarter ended in August. Total imports rose by 28.9% yoy in the period (from a gain of 34.3% yoy in 2Q25). Imports of capital goods increased by 43.4% yoy in the quarter ended in August, while imports of consumer goods (including cars) rose by 92.4% yoy. Moreover, imports of intermediate goods rose by 8.7% yoy in the period. On a sequential basis, imports fell by 5.6% qoq/saar in August likely due to weaker activity at the margin.
The energy trade surplus widened in August. The rolling 12-month balance reached USD 7.2 billion in August, above USD 6.7 billion in the previous month. Energy exports rose by 30.9% yoy in the quarter ended in August, while oil imports fell by 34.0% yoy in the same period.
Our take: We forecast a trade surplus of USD 8.0 billion for this year. The trade balance figures for September will be published on October 20.