2025/10/20 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
The trade balance reached a surplus of USD 0.9 billion in September, slightly below the USD 1.0 billion surplus registered in the same month of 2024. The surplus was broadly in line with market expectations according to the central bank's survey, with analysts estimating a surplus of USD 0.9 billion. The 12-month rolling trade balance fell to a surplus of USD 9.9 billion in September, down slightly from USD 10.0 billion in the previous month. The cumulative trade surplus reached USD 6.0 billion by September, well below the USD 15.1 billion recorded in the same period in 2024. At the margin, the seasonally-adjusted annualized trade balance fell to a surplus of USD 11.0 billion in September, from a surplus of USD 12.2 billion in the previous month.
Exports increased in 3Q25. Total exports rose by 13.9% yoy in the period, following a 1.4% gain in 2Q25. Agricultural exports, including manufactured agricultural products, rose by 19.7% yoy in the period (from -1.1% yoy in 2Q25) boosted by the temporary reduction of exports duties. Other industrial products were flat in 3Q25 (0.0% yoy in the same period), down from an increase of 6.6% yoy in 2Q25. On a sequential basis, exports rose by 49.8% qoq/saar in September.
Imports also increased in 3Q25. Total imports rose by 23.8% yoy in the period (from a gain of 34.3% yoy in 2Q25). Imports of capital goods increased by 29.8% yoy in the quarter ended in September, while imports of consumer goods (including cars) rose by 68.5% yoy. Moreover, imports of intermediate goods rose by 3.1% yoy in the period. On a sequential basis, imports expanded by 19.2% qoq/saar in September despite weaker activity at the margin.
The energy trade surplus widened in September. The rolling 12-month balance reached USD 7.4 billion in September, above USD 7.2 billion in the previous month. Energy exports rose by 17.5% yoy in 3Q25, while oil imports fell by 17.8% yoy in the same period.
Our take: We forecast a trade surplus of USD 8.0 billion for this year. The trade balance figures for October will be published on November 19.