2025/11/19 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
The trade balance reached a surplus of USD 0.8 billion in October, slightly below the USD 0.9 billion surplus registered in the same month of 2024. The surplus was in line with market expectations according to the central bank's survey, with analysts estimating a surplus of USD 0.8 billion. The 12-month rolling trade balance fell to a surplus of USD 9.8 billion in October, down slightly from USD 9.9 billion in the previous month. The cumulative trade surplus reached USD 6.8 billion by October, well below the USD 16.0 billion recorded in the same period in 2024. At the margin, the seasonally-adjusted annualized trade balance fell to a surplus of USD 11.1 billion in October, from a surplus of USD 12.5 billion in the previous month.
Exports increased in the quarter ended in October. Total exports rose by 15.6% yoy in the period, following a 13.9% gain in 3Q25. Agricultural exports, including manufactured agricultural products, rose by 21.4% yoy in the period (from 20.2% yoy in 3Q25) boosted by the temporary reduction of exports duties. Other industrial products increased 1.4% yoy in the quarter ended in October, up from a slight 0.1% yoy decrease in 3Q25. On a sequential basis, exports rose by 33.2% qoq/saar in October.
Imports also increased in the quarter ended in October. Total imports rose by 22.6% yoy in the period (from a gain of 23.7% yoy in 3Q25). Imports of capital goods increased by 20.8% yoy in the quarter ended in October, while imports of consumer goods (including cars) rose by 63.1% yoy. Moreover, imports of intermediate goods rose by 7.1% yoy in the period. On a sequential basis, imports expanded by 36.7% qoq/saar in October despite weaker activity at the margin.
The energy trade surplus widened in October. The rolling 12-month balance reached USD 7.5 billion in October, above USD 7.4 billion in the previous month. Energy exports rose by 24.9% yoy in the quarter ended in October, while oil imports fell by 22.0% yoy in the same period.
Our take: We forecast a trade surplus of USD 8.0 billion for this year. Imports of capital goods are a positive sign for an investment-led recovery. The trade balance figures for November will be published on December 18.