2025/11/17 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
As expected, Argentina’s treasury ran another primary surplus in October of ARS 824 billion, above the surplus of ARS 747 billion posted one year earlier. The nominal fiscal balance posted a surplus of ARS 518.7 billion, below the ARS 523.4 billion surplus in October 2024. Consequently, the cumulative primary balance reached an estimated surplus of 1.4% of GDP during the first ten months of the year, while the cumulative nominal balance stood at +0.5% of GDP.
Real tax revenues decreased in the quarter ended in October. Total real revenues fell by 2.7% YoY in the quarter ended in October after decreasing 0.8% in 3Q25. Tax collection fell by 6.0% YoY in real terms in the period after falling by 3.2% in 3Q25.
Primary expenditures declined in the quarter ended in October. Primary expenditures fell by 2.5% YoY in real terms in the period, after falling 2.4% YoY in 3Q25. Energy subsidies fell by 17.0% YoY, compared with a drop of 25.2% in 3Q25, while payrolls decreased by 8.2% YoY (-9.1% in 3Q25). Capital expenditure decreased by 8.8% YoY, after decreasing 12.9% in 3Q25. Furthermore, transfers to provinces fell by 39.4% YoY, after decreasing -20.4% in 3Q25. On the other hand, pension payments were up 8.7% YoY in real terms (+11.4% in 3Q25) amid the drop in inflation.
Our Take: Our primary budget surplus forecast for this year is 1.5% of GDP, which is in line with the official target presented in the 2026 Budget bill. The disciplined management of the fiscal accounts supports this forecast. Although no date has been set for a vote on the 2026 budget bill in Congress, the government may try to move forward with its discussion after December 10, when the new Congress takes office.