2026/06/11 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
According to Argentina’s statistical office (INDEC), consumer prices increased by 2.1% MoM in May, marking the lowest reading since September last year. The print came in below the central bank’s survey median and our forecast (2.3% MoM and 2.4%, respectively). As a result, annualized quarterly inflation fell to 37.6%, from 42.0% in April. On a year-on-year basis, inflation accelerated to 33.2% in May, up from 32.4% in April 2026. Cumulative inflation reached 14.7% in the first five months of the year.
Core inflation also eased in May. The core CPI rose by 1.9% MoM, down from 2.3% previously, mainly driven by restaurants and pharmaceutical goods. On an annual basis, core inflation fell to 32.0%, from 32.4% in April. Prices of regulated goods increased by 2.4% MoM and 44.5% YoY, accelerating from 43.0% YoY in April given higher domestic fuel and energy prices. Meanwhile, seasonal prices expanded by 3.5% MoM (0.0% MoM in April), led by higher vegetables prices. Year-over-year seasonal inflation accelerated to 19.3% YoY from 12.1% the previous month.
The market starts to believe. According to the latest central bank survey (REM), analysts kept year-end 2026 inflation expectations unchanged at 30.5%—the first time this year expectations have not been revised to the upside. Looking ahead, the consensus continues to point to further monthly disinflation, a trend that is even more evident among the top-tier forecasters.
Our take: Our inflation forecast for YE26 remains at 30.0%, slightly below 31.5% recorded in 2025. We expect further disinflation in the coming months, supported by a strong ARS and almost frozen domestic fuel prices. INDEC is scheduled to release June CPI data on July 14.