2026/03/12 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
According to Argentina’s statistical office (INDEC), consumer prices rose by 2.9% MoM in February, maintaining the monthly pace observed in January. The print was above the central bank's survey median (2.7%), but slightly below our forecast (3.0%). Annualized quarterly inflation in February rose to 40.4%, up from 38.4% in the previous month. On an annual basis, inflation rose for the fourth consecutive month to 33.1% in February, up from 32.4% in January 2026.
The monthly core reading accelerated in February. The core measure rose by 3.1% MoM in February, up from 2.6% in the previous month, led by higher meat prices. Moreover, the annual core reading rose to 33.6%, up from 33.4% in January. Prices for regulated products increased by 4.3% MoM and 36.5% YoY, up from 34.0% YoY in January. Finally, seasonal product prices fell 1.3% MoM in February and 22.6% YoY, down from 23.2% YoY the previous month.
Our take: We still pencil in a gradual disinflation process in 2026, with prices expected to reach 23.5% by December, down from 31.5% in 2025. However, higher-than-expected figures at the beginning of the year, even with a stronger ARS, introduce upside risks to our forecast. INDEC will release the CPI for March on April 14. Preliminary estimates from the central bank survey suggest a median monthly reading of 2.5%.