2026/05/09 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
Manufacturing activity moderated in April, giving back part of the strong gains recorded in March. The manufacturing component of the IPI declined by 2.1% MoM/SA, partly reverting the 3.7% expansion in the previous month. Despite this correction, industrial output posted a modest 0.4% QoQ/SA increase in the three months through April. In annual terms, manufacturing remains in contraction, down 2.8% YoY in April and 2.1% YoY in the rolling quarter ended in that month.
Construction activity showed a similar pattern, retreating in April after a solid March. The construction index fell by 4.0% MoM/SA, following a 5.1% increase in the prior month. Nonetheless, the sector maintained a positive quarterly, expanding by 1.5% QoQ/SA in the three months to April. On a yearly basis, construction declined by 2.8% YoY in April, although it still grew by 2.7% YoY in the rolling quarter.
Our take: We maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.5%. The outlook is underpinned by strengthening investment dynamics, more favorable financial conditions, and a strong agricultural campaign, alongside a positive statistical carryover that should support activity in the near term.