2026/04/14 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
According to Argentina’s statistical office (INDEC), consumer prices increased by 3.4% MoM in March, accelerating again at the margin. The print came above both the central bank’s survey median and our forecast (3.0% MoM). As a result, annualized quarterly inflation rose to 43.7%, from 40.4% in February. On a year-on-year basis, inflation eased marginally to 32.6% in March, down from 33.1% in February 2026. Cumulative inflation reached 9.1% in 1Q26.
Core inflation edged slightly higher in March. The core CPI rose by 3.2% MoM, up from 3.1% previously, mainly driven by higher meat prices. On an annual basis, core inflation remained stable at 33.6%. Prices of regulated goods increased by 5.1% MoM and 39.0% YoY, accelerating from 36.5% YoY in February. This reflected higher public service tariffs, transportation costs (+4.1% MoM, driven by fuel price hikes associated with the Middle East conflict), and education (+12.1% MoM, in line with the start of the school year). Meanwhile, seasonal prices rose 1.0% MoM in March, while annual inflation decelerated to 14.3% YoY from 22.6% the previous month. Price increases linked to tourism and seasonal changes in clothing were partially offset by declines in fruit and vegetable prices.
Our take: Our inflation forecast for YE26 stands at 27.5%, below 31.5% recorded in 2025. However, higher-than-expected inflation prints at the start of the year, despite a stronger ARS, together with elevated oil prices, pose upside risks to our forecast. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to moderate to around 2.5% MoM in April, supported by the freeze in fuel prices throughout the month. INDEC is scheduled to release April CPI data on May 14. The greater than expected inflation print in Argentina is directionally consistent with other upside inflation surprises we’ve seen throughout the region in March.