2026/01/13 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
According to Argentina’s statistical office (INDEC), consumer prices rose by 2.8% MoM in December, accelerating for the fourth consecutive month. The print was above the central bank's survey median of 2.3% MoM and our forecast of 2.5% MoM. Annualized quarterly inflation in December rose to 35.2%, up from 31.5% in the previous month. On an annual basis, inflation ended at 31.5% in 2025, the lowest reading since 2017.
The monthly core reading also accelerated in December. The core measure rose by 3.0% MoM in December, up from 2.6% in the previous month led by higher meat prices. However, the annual core reading fell to 33.1%, down from 33.2% in November. Prices for regulated products increased by 3.3% MoM and 34.2% YoY led by higher electricity and transport prices. Finally, seasonal product prices rose 0.6% MoM in December and 17.0% YoY, up from 14.7% YoY the previous month.
Our take: We still pencil in a gradual disinflation process during 2026 (20.0% by December) given our forecast for a stable ARS in real terms. INDEC will release the CPI for January on February 10. Preliminary estimates from the central bank survey suggest a median monthly reading of 2.0%.