2026/05/14 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
According to Argentina’s statistical office (INDEC), consumer prices increased by 2.6% MoM in April, after ten consecutive sequential increases. The print came in line with the central bank’s survey median and slightly above our forecast (2.5% MoM). As a result, annualized quarterly inflation fell to 42.0%, from 43.7% in March. On a year-on-year basis, inflation eased marginally to 32.4% in April, down from 32.6% in March 2026. Cumulative inflation reached 12.3% in the first four months of the year.
Core inflation also decelerated in April. The core CPI rose by 2.3% MoM, down from 3.2% previously, mainly driven by higher housing and meals at restaurants. On an annual basis, core inflation fell to 32.4%, from 33.6% in March. Prices of regulated goods increased by 4.7% MoM and 43.0% YoY, accelerating from 39.0% YoY in March. This reflected higher electricity tariffs and transportation costs (+4.4% MoM, driven by fuel price hikes associated with the Middle East conflict). Meanwhile, seasonal prices remained flat (0.0% MoM in April), while annual inflation decelerated to 12.1% YoY from 14.3% the previous month. Price increases linked to seasonal changes in clothing were offset by declines in fruit and tourism.
Our take: Our inflation forecast for YE26 stands at 30.0%, slightly below 31.5% recorded in 2025.
We expect further disinflation in the coming months, supported by a strong ARS and almost frozen domestic fuel prices. INDEC is scheduled to release May CPI data on June 11.