2025/12/11 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
According to Argentina’s statistical office (INDEC), consumer prices rose by 2.5% MoM in November, accelerating for the third consecutive month. The print was above the central bank's survey median of 2.3% MoM but in line with our forecast. On an annual basis, inflation rose to 31.4%, from 31.3% in October. Annualized quarterly inflation in November rose to 31.5%, up from 28.1% in the previous month.
The monthly core reading also accelerated in November. The core measure rose by 2.6% MoM in November, up from 2.2% in the previous month amid weaker ARS. Moreover, the annual core reading fell to 33.3%, down from 33.4% in October. Prices for regulated products increased by 2.9% MoM and 34.3% YoY led by higher electricity and fuel prices. Finally, seasonal product prices rose 0.4% MoM in November and 14.6% YoY, up from 12.8% YoY the previous month.
Our take: Our YE25 inflation forecast stands at 30.5%. INDEC will release the CPI for December on January 13. Preliminary estimates from the central bank survey suggest a median monthly reading of 2.1%. We still pencil in a gradual disinflation process during 2026 (20.0% in YE26) given our forecast for a stable ARS in real terms.