2025/12/22 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
According to the EMAE (official monthly GDP proxy), activity fell by 0.4% MoM/SA in October, after rising by 0.6% in September (revised up from 0.5%). Consequently, activity increased by 0.8% in the quarter ended in October after growing 0.3% QoQ/SA in 3Q25 (in line with national accounts data recently published). On an annual basis, activity rose by 3.2% in October and by 3.4% in the quarter ended that month (+3.3% yoy in 3Q25). Thus, the statistical carryover for 2025 stood at 4.4%.
All sectors expanded on an annual basis in the quarter ended in October, except Manufacturing. Primary activities rose by 5.5% YoY during this period (compared to +18.4% YoY in 3Q25), while Services (including the commerce sector) expanded by 2.8% YoY (vs. 2.2% in 3Q25). Moreover, Construction rose by 2.5% YoY (from -0.4% YoY in 3Q25). On the other hand, Manufacturing fell by 2.9% YoY (vs. a drop of 4.6% YoY in 3Q25).
Our take: Despite the weaker start to activity in 4Q25, we still forecast a 4.5% GDP growth this year. A positive carryover, lower interest rates, and a more favorable investment outlook support our GDP growth forecast of 3.5% for 2026. The GDP proxy for November will be published on January 21.