2025/12/16 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
GDP rose by 3.3% yoy in 3Q25, decelerating from 6.4% in 2Q25. At the margin, using INDEC's seasonally adjusted series, GDP rose by 0.3% qoq/sa in 3Q25, below the 0.5% implied from the monthly GDP proxy EMAE. Furthermore, the INDEC adjusted past data. In 1Q25, the GDP grew by 1.1% qoq/sa, instead of 0.9% qoq/sa published in the previous report, while 2Q25 remained unchanged (-0.1% qoq/sa). Thus, the statistical carryover for 2025 stands at 4.3%.
Final domestic demand – led by investment and private consumption – fell by 0.9% qoq/sa in 3Q25, from -0.6% in the previous quarter. Private consumption rose by 0.2% in the quarter, while fixed investment contracted 6.0%. On the other hand, public consumption rose by 0.5% qoq/sa in 3Q25. On external demand, exports increased by 6.4% qoq/sa, while imports fell by 2.7% in 3Q25. On an annual basis, domestic demand (excluding inventories) rose by 5.8% yoy, reflecting a 5.3% yoy increase in private consumption and a 10.3% gain in gross fixed investment. Moreover, public consumption rose by 1.7%. Regarding external demand, exports increased by 10.2% yoy, while imports rose by 23.7% yoy.
Our take: Due to a higher carryover, lower interest rates, and a more favorable investment outlook, we will revise our GDP growth projections for 2025 and 2026 (currently 3.8% and 2.5%, respectively).