2026/07/14 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
According to Argentina’s statistical office (INDEC), consumer prices increased by 1.9% MoM in June, marking the third consecutive deceleration and lowest reading since August last year. The print came in below the central bank’s survey median and our forecast (both at 2.0% MoM). As a result, annualized quarterly inflation fell to 29.8%, from 37.6% in May. On a year-on-year basis, inflation accelerated to 33.5% in June, up from 33.2% in May 2026. Cumulative inflation reached 16.8% in the first six months of the year.
Core inflation also eased in June. The core CPI rose by 1.6% MoM, down from 1.9% previously, mainly driven by bread, cereal and medicine goods. On an annual basis, core inflation fell to 31.8%, from 32.0% in May. Prices of regulated goods increased by 2.3% MoM and 44.6% YoY, almost unchanged from 44.5% YoY in May given higher domestic energy and transport prices. Meanwhile, seasonal prices expanded by 3.4% MoM (3.5% MoM in May), led by higher vegetables and tourism prices. Year-over-year seasonal inflation accelerated to 23.5% YoY from 19.3% the previous month.
The market expects lower inflation ahead. According to the latest central bank survey (REM), analysts reduced year-end 2026 inflation expectations to 30.0%, from 30.5% in the previous survey. Looking ahead, the consensus continues to point to further monthly disinflation, a trend that is even more evident among the top-tier forecasters.
Our take: We maintain our YE26 inflation forecast at 30.0%, slightly below the 31.5% registered in 2025. While the disinflation trend remains firmly in place, we expect a temporary uptick in monthly CPI inflation in July, largely reflecting seasonal factors associated with the winter holiday period, particularly in recreation, transportation, and hotel services. Looking ahead at this seasonal volatility, we continue to expect inflation to resume its downward trajectory in the following months. INDEC is scheduled to release July CPI data on August 13.