2026/04/22 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
Economic activity contracted sharply on a sequential basis in February. The EMAE (monthly GDP proxy) fell 2.6% MoM/SA, the steepest decline since December 2023, underscoring a loss of momentum early in 2026. As a result, activity growth eased to 0.9% QoQ/SA as of February from 1.0% QoQ/SA in January, still flattered by a strong statistical carryover from December (+1.8% MoM). On an annual basis, output declined 2.1% YoY in February, while activity for the rolling quarter expanded 1.0% YoY, down from 2.0% YoY in 4Q25.
Sectoral dynamics remain uneven. Primary activities surged 17.3% YoY, reflecting a record agricultural harvest. Services, including commerce, posted only 0.5% YoY growth, pointing to subdued domestic demand. Construction fell a mild 0.1% YoY, suggesting early signs of stabilization. In contrast, manufacturing contracted 5.1% YoY, consistent with still‑weak imports of capital goods and intermediate inputs.
Our take: We maintain our 2026 GDP growth forecast at 3.5%, supported by a constructive investment outlook, lower interest rates, and a record harvest. However, the recent re‑acceleration of inflation poses risks to the real wage recovery, reinforcing a cautious view on the pace and timing of a consumption rebound. The March EMAE is scheduled to be released on 21 May.