ARGENTINA – Activity expanded sequentially at the start of the year

Economic activity continued to expand at the start of the year. According to the EMAE (monthly GDP proxy), activity rose 0.4% MoM/SA in January, following a stronger 1.8% MoM/SA increase in December. As a result, activity advanced 1.1% QoQ/SA as of January, accelerating from 0.6% QoQ/SA in December. On an annual basis, output grew 1.9% YoY in January, while activity expanded 1.6% YoY over the quarter ending in January (vs. 2.0% YoY in 4Q25).

Growth signals were mixed across sectors at the start of the year. Primary activities surged 19.0% YoY, reflecting a strong base effect, while services (including commerce) increased a modest 0.4% YoY. Construction posted a mild 0.5% YoY gain, suggesting tentative stabilization. In contrast, manufacturing contracted 2.6% YoY, consistent with weaker imports of capital goods and intermediate inputs.

Our take: We forecast GDP growth of 3.5% in 2026, underpinned by a firmer outlook for investment, alongside a favorable statistical carryover. That said, persistent acceleration in inflation poses headwinds to the real wage recovery, warranting a more cautious stance on the pace of the consumption rebound. Separately, leading indicators for investment such as imports of capital goods have yet to signal a recovery in the near term. The February2026 EMAE figures will be published on 22 April.