2026/06/18 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
Argentina recorded a USD 3.5 billion trade surplus in May, a sharp improvement from the USD 0.6 billion surplus a year earlier and well above market expectations (USD 2.2 billion, central bank survey). On a rolling basis, the 12‑month trade surplus widened to USD 21.2 billion, up from USD 18.3 billion in April. The seasonally adjusted annualized trade balance rose to USD 29.7 billion, from USD 22.8 billion in the previous month.
Record high exports. Total exports rose 33.0% yoy in the quarter ended in May, accelerating from 17.2% in 1Q26. Agricultural exports (including processed products) increased by 24.4% yoy, above the 17.8% pace recorded in 1Q26. Exports of other industrial products surged 29.3% yoy, an acceleration from 23.7% in 1Q26. Sequential dynamics were supportive, with exports rising 70.8% qoq (saar) in May.
Imports contracted in May. Imports declined by 3.2% yoy in the quarter ended in May, after falling 7.3% yoy in 1Q26. Capital goods and parts imports plunged 12.4% yoy, while consumer goods imports (including vehicles) rose 0.5% yoy. Intermediate goods imports rose by 7.6% yoy. However, on a sequential basis, imports expanded by 11.4% qoq (saar) in May, reversing the 22.8% drop in 1Q26, representing a positive signal for the domestic demand at the margin.
The energy trade balance continued to improve. The rolling 12‑month energy surplus reached USD 10.2 billion in May, up from USD 9.0 billion in the previous month and USD 7.8 billion in December 2025. Energy exports grew 83.8% yoy in the quarter ended in May, also supported by higher oil prices. On the other hand, oil imports declined sharply (39.6% yoy) in the same period. Notably, almost 50% of the trade surplus accumulated in the last twelve months came from the energy sector.
Our take: We see upside risks to our 2026 trade surplus forecast of USD 18 billion. Export performance should remain robust, underpinned by a favorable outlook for soybean and corn harvests and firmer oil prices. A stronger‑than‑expected trade balance would provide room for the central bank to step up FX purchases, which have already reached USD 10.8bn year to date. June trade figures are scheduled for release on July 20.