2026/03/16 | Andrés Pérez M., Vittorio Peretti, Andrea Tellechea & Ignacio Martínez
The monthly GDP proxy increased by 3.5% YoY in January, slightly below the Bloomberg median forecast of 3.7%. On a sequential basis, using INEI’s seasonally adjusted GDP series as a reference, economic activity expanded by 0.6% MoM SA in January, adding to the 0.6% MoM SA gain recorded in the previous month.
The monthly result was supported by mining (3.3% MoM SA), construction (6.2% MoM SA), and parts of the services sector, including restaurants and hotels (0.5% MoM SA) and commerce (0.3% MoM SA). In contrast, manufacturing remained weak (-2.9% MoM SA), and agricultural activity contracted (-0.7% MoM SA).
Following the January release, growth carryover for 1Q26 is tracking at a solid 0.9% QoQ SA (up from 0.5% in 4Q25 based on the monthly activity data), while carryover growth for full-year 2026 stands at 2.1%.
The unemployment rate in Metropolitan Lima (3‑month moving average) rose to 6.4% in the rolling quarter to February, slightly above the 6.3% recorded a year earlier. Employment increased by 4.7% in February, adding 257,000 jobs over the past twelve months.
Our take: Leading indicators point to continued solid growth momentum. However, we expect a growth moderation in 1Q26 following sizable transitory disruptions to local gas supply in February–March, which are likely to weigh on energy production, manufacturing, and potentially services. Our 2026 GDP growth forecast of 3.1% faces downside risks stemming from heightened global geopolitical uncertainty, tighter external financial conditions, and rising oil prices. The February economic activity report is scheduled for release on April 15.
