2025/09/23 | Julia Passabom & Mariana Ramirez
According to a survey of commercial companies, real retail sales grew by 2.4% YoY in July, above Bloomberg’s consensus of 1.6%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, real retail sales increased sequentially by 0.1% MoM SA, also above the consensus call for a flat month. Six out of nine subsectors rose sequentially in the month of July, with household goods and computers up by 1.1%, internet sales by 1.9%, and hardware by 0.7%. However, textiles and apparel, leisure, and motor vehicles experienced contractions of -0.5%, -1.8% and -0.05% MoM, respectively. We continued to identify positive determinants for consumption, with the real wage bill rising by 1.5% YoY, and real consumption credit from commercial banks and remittances in MXN at 11.0% and 4.1%, respectively.
Our take: This data comes from a survey that identifies revenues from companies, which explains the difference from IGAE’s figures that consider value added. Today’s results have a positive bias, with the QoQ/SAAR at 3.0% (up from +1.2% in the previous quarter) and a statistical carry-over of +1.9% for the year. Due to resilient consumption determinants, such as the growing real wage bill and historically high consumer confidence, we anticipate the sector will remain slightly positive in 2025. Additionally, we expect private consumption and net exports to be the main drivers of GDP growth this year. We forecast GDP growth of 0.6% in 2025.
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