2025/09/19 | Julia Passabom & Mariana Ramirez
In 2Q25, aggregate supply and demand increased by 0.3% YoY NSA, compared to a decrease of 0.1% in 1Q25. Exports continued to be the main positive contributor to demand, increasing by 10.6% YoY, supported by frontloading effects. Private consumption contracted by 0.4% YoY during the quarter, slightly improving from a contraction of 0.5% YoY in the previous quarter. Investment declined by 7.9% YoY, compared to decreases of 5.3% in 1Q25 and 2.4% in 4Q24. Previous quarter figures were slightly revised, with downward adjustments for investment and upward revisions for net exports and consumption. Aggregate demand shifted from a 0.2% contraction to a 0.1% YoY decrease in 2Q25. Contrary to our expectations, figures for 2024 and 2023 remained unchanged, not incorporating the recently revised trade balance data. In seasonally adjusted terms, aggregate demand rose by 1.4% QoQ, following a contraction of 0.8% in the previous quarter. Private consumption was the most dynamic component, rising by 1.2% from the previous quarter, while public investment contracted for six consecutive quarters. Exports increased by 0.6%, a slower pace compared to the previous quarter’s 1.6% QoQ growth. On the other hand, imports increased by 3.9% due to growth in intermediate goods.
Our take: Unlike the previous quarter, today’s results showed improved performance in domestic components, while net exports deteriorated due to higher imports and a slower pace of exports. Looking ahead, we anticipate some support for Mexico’s growth from international sources, primarily in manufacturing exports, which still benefit from some frontloading effects, and growth in the tourism sector. The outlook for domestically related sectors is mixed, with moderation in local services and a contraction in investment. The government is focused on strengthening the domestic market amid changes in the global outlook, which will modestly drive growth going forward. Our forecast for this year is a modest 0.6% GDP growth.
See detailed data below
