2025/11/24 | Julia Passabom & Mariana Ramirez
The current account posted a surplus of USD 2.3 billion in 3Q25, exceeding Bloomberg's market consensus of USD 0.9 billion. Compared to 3Q24, the current account balance reflected a surplus in the trade balance due to non-oil goods and lower outflows in dividends and interest. As a result, the current account was 0.5% of GDP, compared to -0.5% in 3Q24.
On the other hand, the financial account registered a net loan flow of USD 3.2 billion in 3Q25. By account, the net balance of the direct investment account was USD -6.1 billion, portfolio investment had a net outflow of USD 6.2 billion, and reserve assets accounted for USD 6.8 billion. Financial derivatives posted a net outflow of USD 0.8 billion. Finally, the errors and omissions account closed the balance of payments with a net balance of USD 0.9 billion. Consequently, the financial account amounted to 0.8% of GDP. The balance of payments releases incorporated revisions of figures for some items in the statistics, derived from the ongoing process of incorporating additional information. On this occasion, the main revisions were made in the categories of services, profits and dividends, and direct investment.
Our view: Amid shifts in U.S. trade policy and the USMCA review approaching, we expect uncertainty and volatility to persist through the end of the year, impacting the balance of payments in the fourth quarter of 2025. We continue to anticipate that investment decisions will likely adopt a wait-and-see approach for the remainder of 2025 and the first half of 2026, affecting FDI during this period, mainly greenfield investment. Our forecast for the 2025 current account surplus is 0.1% of GDP, with a trade deficit of USD 0.5 billion. Given today’s figures, our 2025 current account forecast has a negative bias.
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