2025/08/22 | Julia Passabom & Mariana Ramirez
The final 2Q25 GDP was flat at 0.0% YoY, aligning with market expectations but slightly below the flash estimate of 0.1%. Primary activities increased by 2.0% YoY (preliminary: +4.1%), industry decreased by 1.7% YoY (preliminary: -1.5%), and services grew by 0.9% YoY (preliminary: +0.7%). Using seasonally adjusted data, GDP increased by 0.6% QoQ, in line with both the consensus forecast and our call, with industry and services as the main drivers at 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively, while the primary sector decreased by 2.4%. In the first half of the year, the economy grew by 0.92% YoY, mainly due to the primary and tertiary sectors, despite a contraction in industry.
According to the monthly GDP (IGAE), the economy rose by 0.2% MoM in June, slightly below both the consensus (0.3%) and our forecast (0.4%). On a monthly basis, only the tertiary sector grew (+0.3%), while both agriculture and industry activities declined by 0.1%. The QoQ/SAAR was +3.0% in 2Q25, down from +3.3% in the previous quarter. Data for 2025 was revised, showing a better performance for May, from -0.2% YoY to 0.04% YoY.
Our take: Today’s release confirmed that Mexico's economy continues to decelerate, despite positive surprises from external demand, with a statistic carry-over of 0.8%. Looking ahead, we anticipate some support for Mexico’s growth from international sources, primarily in manufacturing exports, which still benefit from frontloading effects, and growth in the tourism sector. The outlook for domestically related sectors is mixed, with a moderation in local services and a contraction in investment. The government is focused on strengthening the domestic market amid changes in the global outlook, which might modestly drive growth going forward. We recently revised our GDP forecast upward to 0.6% YoY in 2025, up from a modest 0.2% YoY.
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