2026/01/27 | Julia Passabom, Mariana Ramirez & Ignacio Martínez
According to Banxico, Mexico’s trade balance for December posted a USD 2.4 billion surplus, essentially in line with the Bloomberg median (USD2.5 bn). As a result, the trade balance for the full year ended at USD 0.8 billion—the first annual surplus since 2020—equivalent to 0.05% of Mexico’s GDP for the year. Behind this outcome, total exports reached USD 664.8 billion in 2025, marking an annual increase of 7.6% (compared with +4.2% in 2024). Non‑oil exports led the expansion, growing 9.3% year‑over‑year (+5.2% in 2024), while oil exports contracted by 26% (‑13% in 2024). On the other hand, total imports amounted to USD 664.1 billion in 2025, representing annual growth of 4.4% (+5.1% in 2024).
Our take: The goods trade surplus achieved in 2025 reflects the combination of strong external demand for Mexico’s exports – particularly non-oil-, along with ongoing weak import demand. Imports of capital goods fell by 8.7% YoY in 2025, and remain weak at the margin, suggesting an investment recovery is not in the cards in 2026.
