2025/12/23 | Vittorio Peretti, Carolina Monzón, Juan Robayo & Angela Gonzalez
The trade deficit rose to USD 1.9 billion in October, up by USD 0.9 billion compared to October 2024, above the Bloomberg market consensus of USD 1.7 billion and our USD 1.6 billion call. Total imports (FOB) increased by 15.8% YoY (lower than previous month of +20.1% YoY), driven by manufacturing and agricultural goods. Meanwhile, exports contracted 0.2% YoY, after the 11.8% YoY expansion in September. As a result, the 12-month rolling trade deficit stands at USD 15.9 billion (USD 10.8 billion in 2024).
Import growth remains solid. The 15.8% YoY increase was boosted by durable goods (+35.2% YoY), construction materials (+23.3% YoY), transport equipment (+20.5% YoY) and capital goods for industry (19.7% YoY). In contrast, fuel imports fell by 7.9% YoY. In the rolling quarter ending in October, imports increased 14.2% (+14.6% in 3Q25). Imports excluding fuels and transportation equipment rose by 15.4% from October last year. At the margin, we estimate imports grew by 6.1% qoq/saar (+12.9% in 3Q25). As of October, imports from the US accounted for 23.2% of the total (25.7% in 2024).
Exports increased at the margin. Exports fell by 0.2% YoY, after the 11.8% expansion in September. Traditional exports led the outcome with a 4.4% contraction amid an oil drop of 22.2%YoY and a coal decline of 6.7% YoY. Non-traditional and coffee exports rose 3.5%YoY and 65.4% YoY, respectively. In the quarter ending in October, exports increased 3.7% YoY (+2.1% in 3Q25). At the margin, exports expanded 28.8% QoQ/saar (+16.6% in September). As of October, exports to the US accounted for 29.8% of the total (28.9% in 2024).
Our View: Strengthening domestic demand, especially for durable goods within private consumption is fueling a rise in imports. At the same time, ongoing softness in commodity exports is further widening the trade gap. We expect the current account deficit to increase to 2.5% of GDP in 2025, up from 1.8% in 2024, despite resilient remittance inflows.