2025/10/21 | Vittorio Peretti, Carolina Monzón, Juan Robayo & Angela Gonzalez
The trade deficit rose to USD 1.7 billion in August, up by USD 0.4 billion compared to August 2024, above the Bloomberg market consensus of USD 1.5 billion, but below our USD 2.1 billion call. Total imports (FOB) increased by 7.0% YoY (lower than previous months+16.9% in July), driven by manufacturing goods, but dragged by fuels imports. Meanwhile, exports contracted by 0.1% YoY (-4.1% in July), weighed down by coal and oil exports. As a result, the 12-month rolling trade deficit stands at USD 14.6 billion (USD 10.8 billion in July 2024; USD 9.7 billion in 2023).
Imports increased at the margin. The 7.0% YoY increase was boosted by transport equipment (+65.9% YoY), capital goods for agriculture (+29.6% YoY) and consumption goods (+23.5% YoY). In contrast, fuels fell by 45.2% YoY. In the rolling quarter ending August, imports increased 12.8% YoY (+7.6% in 2Q25). Imports excluding fuels and transportation equipment rose by 13.9% from August last year. At the margin, we estimate imports grew by 14% qoq/saar (+28.3% in 2Q25). As of August, imports from the US accounted for 23.6% of the total.
The weak export trend persisted in August. Exports fell by 0.1% YoY (-4.1% in July). Coffee exports remained positive, growing by 71.3% YoY (70.3% in July) boosted by a favorable price effect. Meanwhile, energy exports continued to plummet, with coal exports contracting 36.3% (down from -45.8% the previous month and -35% on the YTD) and oil exports declining by 25.8% YoY (down from -17.1% in July and -16.8% on the YTD) due to both lower prices and volumes. In contrast, non-traditional exports posted a solid 14.2% year-on-year expansion (12.5% in July). In the quarter ending in August, exports fell 0.8% YoY (-2.2% in 2Q25). At the margin, exports contracted 11.8% QoQ/saar (-12.7% in July). As of August, exports to the US accounted for 30.3% of the total.
Our Take: Although import growth slowed this month, robust domestic demand continues to drive an overall rebound in imports, while sustained weakness in commodity-related sectors weighs on exports. Heightened bilateral tensions between the US and Colombia are an important watchpoint going forward. We project the current account deficit to widen to 2.8% of GDP in 2025, up from 1.8% in 2024.