2025/11/19 | Vittorio Peretti, Carolina Monzón, Juan Robayo & Angela Gonzalez
The trade deficit rose to USD 1.2 billion in September, up by USD 0.5 billion over one year, in line with the Bloomberg market consensus, while above our USD 1.0 billion call. During 3Q25, the trade deficit reached USD 4.5 billion (USD 3.9 billion in 2Q25). As a result, the rolling 12-month trade deficit reached USD 15 billion, above the USD 10.8 billion deficit recorded in 2024 (USD 9.7 billion in 2023). In September, total imports (FOB) increased by 20.1% YoY (+7.0% in August), boosted by consumption goods (29.5% YoY), fuels (16.7% YoY), while exports rose by 11% in September (+0.7% in August), lifted by coffee and non-traditional exports, but countered by coal and oil exports. At the margin, our seasonal adjustment shows the trade deficit in the quarter reached USD 17.5 billion (annualized; USD 18.6 billion in 2Q25).
Imports remain upbeat. During 3Q25, imports increased by 14.6% YoY (7.6% YoY in 2Q25). Consumption goods rose by close to 30% YoY, with durable consumption goods growing 42.4% YoY. Capital goods for agriculture (54.8% YoY) and transport equipment (15.8% YoY) were also key drivers. Imports excluding fuel and transport equipment rose 15.4% YoY (9.7% in the 2Q25). At the margin, we estimate imports increased 11.3% QoQ/ saar (+28.0% in 2Q25). During 3Q25, imports from the US accounted for 23.4% of the total (24.6% in 2024).
Despite the commodity drag, exports increased at the margin in 3Q25. During 3Q25, exports increased by 2.1% YoY (-2.2% YoY in 2Q25). In the quarter, coffee exports increased 75.1% YoY, driving the increase in agricultural exports, while non-traditional exports grew by 15.7% YoY. Nevertheless, export gains were limited by a large decline in oil (-18.2% YoY) and coal exports (-30.4% YoY). At the margin, exports increased by 27% QoQ/saar during the third quarter of the year (-18.9% in 2Q25). As of September, the US accounted for 29.9% of total exports (29% in 2024).
Our Take: Recovering domestic demand, particularly for durable goods in private consumption, is driving an upswing in imports. Meanwhile, persistent weakness in commodity exports continues to widen the trade deficit. We anticipate the current account deficit will expand to 2.8% of GDP in 2025, up from 1.8% in 2024, despite solid remittance inflows.