2025/10/07 | Andrés Pérez M., Vittorio Peretti, Andrea Tellechea & Ignacio Martínez
A trade surplus of USD 933 million was recorded in September, a tick above Bloomberg's market consensus of USD 850 million (also our call). The 3Q trade surplus came in at USD 1.8 billion (USD 4.1 billion in 3Q24). As a result, the rolling-12m trade balance reached USD 17.8 billion, compared to USD 19.8 billion in the same period last year. The annualized quarterly trade balance sits at a lower USD 15.9 billion (USD 25 billion cycle peak during late 2024). Exports grew 8.1% year-on-year, boosted by the 10% manufacturing gain, while mining exports grew 4.6% YoY, despite a 2% decline in copper exports. Nevertheless, export growth moderated to 1.9% YoY during 3Q (7.1% in 2Q). On the import side, total imports increased by 24.2% YoY, with capital goods posting a notable gain of 31.2% YoY. YTD growth of capital goods imports sits at 26% YoY, in line with the mining-led investment recovery underway. Consumer goods imports were up 13.3%, while energy goods imports returned to growth. Sequentially, exports contracted 2% QoQ/SAAR, while imports increased 3% QoQ/SAAR.
Our Take: The recovery of domestic demand amid elevated but stable exports will lead to a gradual narrowing of the trade surplus. We expect a CAD of 3% of GDP this year (1.5% in 2024). The BCCh will publish October’s trade data on November 7.
