2025/10/15 | Andrés Pérez M., Vittorio Peretti, Andrea Tellechea & Ignacio Martínez
The National Energy Commission (CNE) identified a methodological error in the calculation of regulated electricity tariffs between July 2022 and September 2024. Inflation was mistakenly applied twice—once through the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and again via the interest rate for non-indexed operations—resulting in an overestimation of the adjustment to electricity prices. This issue was highlighted in a preliminary report released on Monday this week, which revealed that the error led to a double adjustment for past inflation.
As part of its proposal for the first half of 2026, the CNE suggests correcting this mistake by reducing the energy component. Specifically, the CNE proposed reducing the average node price by -1.281 CLP/kWh. If this correction is adopted by the Ministry of Energy in the final tariff decree, regulated customers could see lower electricity bills starting in January 2026. However, the final impact will depend on other tariff components and regulatory mechanisms (including transmission fees).
Our take: Barring significant changes to other components of the electricity bill, this update would lead to a price drop in the electricity component on the CPI. Based on the new information and expert estimates, our electricity inflation forecast for January 2026 would fall from +2% (contribution 0.07%) to -2% (contribution -0.07%). If the market adjusts accordingly, the curve will reprice January from 0.5% to 0.4%. A caveat comes in the way the adjustment is implemented as settlement delays may be applied in different formats, like direct discounts (relevant for CPI) or installment credits (not considered in CPI). Minister Pardow emphasized the need to "wait for the institutional process to unfold," noting that electricity companies still need to provide input before any final decision is made. In this sense, there are still doubts about the moment and magnitude of the upcoming adjustment. Regarding past adjustments, second round effects of those increases have been limited. The National Statistics Institute (INE) uses prices directly reported by electricity companies to calculate the electricity component of the CPI basket, which carries a weight of 2.2%.