2026/01/20 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
The trade balance reached a surplus of USD 1.9 billion in December, above the USD 1.7 billion surplus registered in the same month of 2024. The surplus was slightly greater than market expectations according to the central bank's survey, with analysts estimating a surplus of USD 1.5 billion. The trade balance reached a surplus of USD 11.3 billion in 2025, below the USD 18.9 billion recorded in 2024. At the margin, the seasonally-adjusted annualized trade balance rose to a surplus of USD 14.7 billion in December, from a surplus of USD 12.9 billion in the previous month.
Exports increased in 4Q25 led by higher sales of primary products. Total exports rose by 14.3% yoy in the period, following a 18.1% gain in the quarter ended in November. Agricultural exports, including manufactured agricultural products, rose by 18.1% yoy in the period (from 21.1% yoy) boosted by the temporary reduction of exports duties. Other industrial products increased by 5.8% yoy in the quarter ended in December, down from 9.1% yoy gain previously. On a sequential basis, exports rose by 19.2% qoq/saar in December.
Imports increased in 4Q25, but at softer pace than in the previous quarters. Total imports rose by 9.4% yoy in 4Q25 (from a gain of 15.0% yoy in the quarter ended in November). Imports of capital goods and their parts increased by 1.7% yoy in the quarter ended in December, while imports of consumer goods (including cars) rose by 36.7% yoy. Moreover, imports of intermediate goods rose were virtually flat in the period. On a sequential basis, imports contracted by 4.6% qoq/saar in December.
The energy trade surplus widened in 2025. The rolling 12-month balance reached USD 7.8 billion in December, above USD 5.7 billion in 2024. Energy exports rose by 17.8% yoy in 4Q25, while oil imports rose by 2.5% yoy in the same period. Thus, the energy trade balance reached a new historical surplus amid higher production.
Our take: Our 2026 trade surplus forecast stands at USD 10.0 billion driven by increased oil sales given higher expected production, offset by higher overall imports amid a projected domestic demand recovery. The trade balance figures for January will be published on February 19.