2025/11/12 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
According to Argentina’s statistical office (INDEC), consumer prices rose by 2.3% MoM in October, accelerating for the second consecutive month. The print was above the central bank's survey median of 2.1% MoM but below our forecast of 2.4% MoM. The reading shows a limited exchange rate pass-through with the ARS experiencing a nominal depreciation of 5.6% against the USD in October amid political turmoil given the mid-term election. On an annual basis, inflation fell to 31.3%, from 31.8% in September, also supported by an annual base effect. Annualized quarterly inflation in October rose to 28.1%, up from 26.1% in the previous month.
The monthly core reading also accelerated in October. The core measure rose by 2.2% MoM in October, up from 1.9% in the previous month amid weaker ARS. Moreover, the annual core reading fell to 33.4%, down from 34.2% in September. Prices for regulated products increased by 2.6% MoM and 35.2% YoY. Finally, seasonal product prices increased 2.8% MoM in October and 12.8% YoY in October, up from 11.2% YoY the previous month.
Our take: Our YE25 inflation forecast stands at 29.5%. The appreciation of the ARS following the mid-term election should ease pressure on tradable prices in the coming months. INDEC will release the CPI for November on December 11. Preliminary estimates from the central bank survey suggest a median monthly reading of around 1.9% (0.1 p.p. below the previous estimation).