2025/08/13 | Andrés Pérez M., Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
According to Argentina’s statistical office (INDEC), consumer prices rose by 1.9% MoM in July, up from 1.6% MoM in June. The print was slightly above the central bank's survey median of 1.8% MoM and in line with the Bloomberg median (1.9%). On an annual basis, inflation fell to 36.6%, from 39.4% in June, also supported by an annual base effect. Annualized quarterly inflation in July fell to 22.3%, down from 26.6% in the previous month.
The monthly core measure rose by 1.5% MoM in July, down from 1.7% in the previous month. Moreover, the annual core reading fell to 38.9%, down from 42.0% in June. Prices for regulated products increased by 2.3% MoM and 42.2% YoY led by higher public transport prices. Finally, seasonal product prices increased 4.1% in July due to higher entertainment and accommodation service prices during the winter school holidays, as well as higher fruit and vegetable prices. The annual reading fell to 14.6% in July, down from 15.7% the previous month.
Our take: Our inflation forecast stands at 28.5% for YE25. Inflation has accelerated at the margin for the second consecutive month, as pass-through from the ARS depreciation from recent months will be key to monitor in the next few months. The INDEC will release CPI for the month of August on September 10.