2026/06/22 | Vittorio Peretti, Carolina Monzón, Juan Robayo & Angela Gonzalez
The trade balance deficit came in at USD 1.8 billion in April, USD 0.4 billion higher than a year ago, in line with the Bloomberg market consensus of USD 1.7 billion, but above our USD 1.2 billion call. Total imports (FOB) increased by 16.2% YoY (+11.6% YoY in the previous month), driven by consumption goods (29.9% YoY), agricultural (19.9% YoY) and manufacturing (+16.8% YoY). Meanwhile, exports rose by 11.7% YoY (+20.7% in the previous month). The outcome was driven mainly by oil and non-traditional exports. As a result, the 12-month rolling trade deficit stands at USD 16.5 billion (USD 16.4 billion in 2025; USD 10.8 billion in 2024).
Durable consumption goods continue to drive imports. The 16.2% YoY increase was boosted by durable consumption goods (+45.1% YoY), intermediate goods for agriculture (+25.8% YoY) and transport equipment (+22.9% YoY). In the rolling quarter ending April, imports increased 12.2% YoY (+10.2% in 1Q26). Imports excluding fuels and transport equipment rose by 14% from April last year. At the margin, we estimate imports increased 28.9% QoQ/saar (+10.7% in 1Q26). As of April, imports from the US accounted for 21.7% of total (23% in 2025).
Exports recovery continues. Exports in April grew 11.7% YoY (+20.7% YoY in March). The outcome was driven mainly by oil exports, which surged 72% YoY, while other traditional exports such as coffee and coal declined by 50.6% YoY and 30.3% YoY, respectively. Oil exports benefited from both price and volume gains, with 14.2 million barrels exported (18.1% YoY). Meanwhile, non-traditional exports grew 8.0% YoY, despite shipments to Ecuador falling 18.5% YoY (‑58.9% in March and ‑32.9% YTD). At the margin, total exports increased 42.9% QoQ SAAR (63.8% in 1Q26 and ‑3.9% in 4Q25). As of April, exports to the US accounted for 30.2% of total (29.6% in 2025).
Our Take: Higher oil prices and strong non-traditional exports are supporting an export recovery, helping to contain the trade deficit. However, solid domestic demand, particularly for consumption goods, is fueling import growth, keeping the trade deficit wide.