2026/02/10 | Diego Ciongo & Soledad Castagna
According to Argentina’s statistical office (INDEC), consumer prices rose by 2.9% MoM in January, accelerating for the fifth consecutive month. The print was above the central bank's survey median and our forecast, both at 2.4% MoM. Annualized quarterly inflation in January rose to 38.4%, up from 35.2% in the previous month. On an annual basis, inflation rose for the third consecutive month to 32.4% in January, up from 31.5% in December 2025; the cyclical inflation low throughout the cycle was reached in October 2025 with the annual print at 31.3%.
However, the monthly core reading decelerated in January. The core measure rose by 2.6% MoM in January, down from 3.0% in the previous month, led by higher meat and vegetables and legumes prices. However, the annual core reading rose to 33.4%, up from 33.1% in December. Prices for regulated products increased by 2.4% MoM and 34.0% YoY, down from 34.2% YoY in December. Finally, seasonal product prices rose 5.7% MoM in January and 23.2% YoY, up from 17.0% YoY the previous month.
Our take: We still pencil in a gradual disinflation process during 2026 (20.0% by December) given our forecast for a stable ARS in real terms. INDEC will release the CPI for February on March 12. Preliminary estimates from the central bank survey suggest a median monthly reading of 2.1%.