According to the survey of commercial companies, real retail sales grew by 2.7% YoY in May, above Bloomberg’s consensus of 1.1%. Adjusting for calendar effects, real retail sales rose sequentially by 1.8% MoM SA, above the consensus call of +0.4%. Six out of nine subsectors grew in May, with leisure articles up by 3.8%, textiles and apparel by 3.2%, and food and beverage by 1.2%. However, household goods, hardware and internet sales, experienced contractions of 3.3%, 2.3% and 3.8% MoM, respectively. We still identify positive private consumption determinants, with the real wage bill rising by 1.3% YoY, and real consumption credit from commercial banks and remittances in MXN at 11.8% and 10.9%, respectively.
Our take: This data comes from a survey that identifies revenues from companies, which explains the difference from IGAE’s figures that consider value added. Today’s results have a positive bias, with the QoQ/SAAR at 1.7% (down from +2.0% in the previous quarter) and a statistical carry-over of 2.0% for the year. Due to resilient consumption determinants, such as the growing real wage bill and still historically high consumer confidence, we anticipate the sector will remain slightly positive in 2025. Additionally, we expect private consumption to be the main driver of GDP growth this year.
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