Séries históricas The transition to a low-carbon economy could add up to R$ 465 billion to Brazil’s GDP and generate 1.9 million jobs, according to a study by Itaú and FGV.
The survey shows that decarbonization and increased resilience bring significant economic and productive benefits to the country and to companies, reinforcing the role of the financial system as a catalyst for this transition.
São Paulo, November, 2025 – Itaú Unibanco, in partnership with Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV, a Brazilian education institution and think tank), prepared the study “Benefits of the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy”, which demonstrates how Brazil can transform the challenges of decarbonization into concrete opportunities for economic growth, innovation, and job creation.
The research, developed by FGV’s technical team, shows that the expansion of renewable energy sources could mobilize R$ 295 billion in investments and have a positive impact of between R$ 337 and R$ 465 billion on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2035. In addition, the creation of 1.2 to 1.9 million jobs during this period — equivalent to 4% of one year’s GDP and 4.1% of the formal employment stock in 2024 — is also estimated.
Each R$1 invested in renewable energy can generate up to R$1.57 in returns to the economy, with emphasis on the creation of qualified jobs and the strengthening of domestic suppliers.
The study points out that the energy and agribusiness sectors offer potential gains. In the case of renewables, every US$1 million invested can generate up to 25 direct and indirect jobs, with positive effects for domestic suppliers and regional economies. In agriculture, technological adaptation solutions—such as more resilient seeds and the expansion of precision agriculture techniques—could prevent up to R$61 billion in annual economic losses in the country’s main crops.
“The study reinforces that the transition to a low-carbon economy can turn environmental challenges into concrete opportunities for innovation, economic growth, and job creation for the country. The financial system, in particular, is committed to supporting clients and partners with innovative financial solutions and specialized consulting, so they can advance safely and profitably on this journey. At Itaú, we are committed to being the bank of economic transition, helping Brazil lead the development of a greener, more inclusive, and more resilient economy,” says Luciana Nicola, Head of Institutional Relations and Sustainability at Itaú Unibanco.
Brazil in a Strategic Position
According to the study, Brazil is one of the best-positioned economies in the world to lead the transition to low carbon, with 88% of its electricity matrix coming from renewable sources (hydroelectric, wind, solar, and biomass) and a strong agri-environmental base. These structural conditions allow the country to expand energy independence, reduce climate risks, and strengthen sectors with highly competitive potential, such as energy, transportation, agribusiness, steel, and construction.
According to FGV, decarbonization can increase national energy security, reduce operating costs, expand access to sustainable capital, and generate qualified jobs. The study also emphasizes that energy transition and sustainable land use are complementary drivers of economic transition, capable of strengthening the bioeconomy and regional development, especially in the North and Center-West regions.
“By bringing together detailed data, empirical analyses, and economic simulations, the study shows that the climate agenda—mitigation and adaptation—should be seen as a strategic path to boost Brazil’s prosperity, generating tangible benefits for society and the country’s sustainable development,” highlights Daniel da Mata, study coordinator and FGV professor.
The expansion of solar and wind plants in Brazil, especially in regions like the Northeast, for example, generates clean electricity at competitive costs. This reduces operating expenses, increases energy security, and creates skilled local jobs. In agriculture, the adoption of integrated systems, such as Crop-Livestock-Forest Integration (ILPF) — which combines crops, livestock, and tree species in rotation or consortium — boosts productivity, sequesters carbon in the soil and biomass, reduces emissions, and improves the resilience of the production system. Another example comes from Brazil’s cement sector, which already uses clinker substitutes to reduce CO₂ emissions in production, adding value to industrial residues and reducing regulatory costs.
“Our role is to financially enable the transition, connecting the productive sector to the new low-carbon economy. We want to catalyze the development of solutions that unite economic growth, innovation, and sustainability,” concludes Luciana Nicola.
Study Methodology
The study was conducted by FGV, coordinated by economists Daniel da Mata and Joelson Sampaio, and is based on a combination of sectoral analysis, econometric modeling, and impact projections derived from the Input-Output methodology, widely used to measure the multiplier effects of investment on GDP and employment.
To measure the effects of mitigation, FGV analyzed the renewable energy sector, using data from the Decennial Energy Expansion Plan (PDE 2034 and 2035) and investment estimates in solar, wind, biomass, and biofuels. The model indicated that every real invested in these sectors generates between R$1.14 and R$1.57 in return to the economy, with high job generation intensity and strong participation from domestic suppliers.
The effects of adaptation were evaluated in the agricultural sector, based on econometric modeling of panel data that relate crop productivity (such as corn, soybeans, rice, and coffee) to temperature projections.
This methodological approach made it possible to uniquely quantify the economic and social gains of climate action, proving that the transition to a low-carbon economy generates growth, reduces vulnerabilities, and increases the country’s competitiveness.