Itaú BBA - Macro Scenario - Peru: A bold fiscal and monetary response

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Macro Scenario - Peru: A bold fiscal and monetary response

Maio 11, 2020

Strict measures to contain the outbreak


For the full version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

 

• Peru’s government has implemented strict social distancing measures since March, but the coronavirus outbreak is still far from contained. The government and the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) responded with a bold fiscal and monetary stimulus, respectively, to mitigate the economic hit.

• We now expect economic activity to contract 3.7% (compared with a 1.3% fall in our previous scenario). The widening of the output gap will put downward pressure on inflation, which will allow the BCRP to keep its policy rate at 0.25% (an all-time low) throughout 2020.

 

João Pedro Bumachar
Julio Ruiz



For the full version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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