Itaú BBA - Macro Scenario - Colombia: Still at a standstill

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Macro Scenario - Colombia: Still at a standstill

Junho 5, 2020

More stimulus likely required to aid recovery, but rating risk hovers


For the full version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 

 After two months of a strict lockdown, the Colombian authorities extended the quarantine for another month but allowed several activities to restart and relaxed mobility restrictions. 

 The first signs of the impact from the coronavirus shock on the economy are becoming evident in data, with a significant loosening of the labor market and historic activity declines that, given the enormity of the fallout, would likely require additional response from both fiscal and monetary authorities. In particular, we expect the policy rate to reach 2.0% before the end of this year (from 2.75% currently). 


João Pedro Bumachar
Vittorio Peretti
Miguel Ricaurte

 

For the full version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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