Itaú BBA - Macro Scenario - Argentina: Social distancing with creditors?

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Macro Scenario - Argentina: Social distancing with creditors?

Maio 11, 2020

We now forecast a GDP contraction of 8.3% for 2020, from -6.4% in our previous scenario.


For the full version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file

 

• President Fernández’s image improved thanks to successful control of the spread of the coronavirus, achieved through a comprehensive and early lockdown.

• Still, COVID-19 and the associated social distancing measures will have a significant negative impact on an already weak economy. We now forecast a GDP contraction of 8.3% this year.

• A deal with foreign creditors is even more difficult, given that fiscal accounts are set to weaken. In turn, failing to reach an agreement would further darken the medium-term prospects for the economy.

 

Juan Carlos Barboza
Diego Ciongo


 

For the full version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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