Itaú BBA - Macro Scenario - Argentina: Debt and health

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Macro Scenario - Argentina: Debt and health

Junho 8, 2020

Argentina defaulted again.


For the full version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file
 

• Some easing of lockdowns has started but at a much slower pace in the densely populated Greater Buenos Aires.

• Economic activity will likely be hit harder in 1H20 from social distancing measures than we expected. We now forecast a GDP contraction of 9.1% this year.

• Argentina defaulted on its debt under foreign law, but negotiations continue under tighter capital controls. President Fernandez, popular due to his management of the COVID-19 pandemic, seeks to put relations with creditors back on track. The risks of protracted negotiations and incomplete debt restructuring are high and may further cloud the outlook for the economy.
 

Juan Carlos Barboza
Diego Ciongo

 

For the full version with all charts and tables, please open the attached pdf file



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