Itaú BBA - Macro Latam
  • COLOMBIA – Activity gradually advanced in November  

    Despite the downside activity surprise, we still expect GDP to drop 7% in 2020.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Closed borders  

    For 2021, we maintain our growth forecast of 3.0%, with downside risks

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: New fiscal responsibility bill  

    For 2021, we expect a broad-based growth of 4.0%.

  • PERU – Solid sequential GDP growth in November  

    Non-natural resources sector supported November’s activity expansion

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Contained inflation creates scope for additional monetary easing?  

    A slow rollout of the vaccination program amplifies downside risks to activity.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation spiked in December, as expected  

    Noticeable acceleration in annualized quarterly inflation, which hit 54% in 4Q20.

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Ghosts still linger  

    Higher soy prices unlikely to help an unbalanced economy

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: A help from higher copper prices   

    More populist initiatives from Congress

  • A delicate start to 2021  

    A swift vaccination rollout could compensate a weaker start to 2021.

  • MEXICO – Further recovery of internal demand in October  

    Internal demand indicators remain far below pre-outbreak levels

  • MEXICO – Industrial production posted a solid sequential growth in November  

    Industrial production growth was driven by construction output

  • CHILE – Inflation ends 2020 at 3.0% target  

    The strong CLP performance and the re-introduction of mobility restriction measures would contain pressures ahead

  • MEXICO – Inflation fell in December despite core inflation increase  

    Non-core food prices exerted downward pressure, which was partly offset by a rebound in core inflation as the “Buen Fin” effect faded away.

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: the easing cycle will likely resume soon, but there are risks  

    Deputy Governor Heath and Esquivel were the dissenting votes.

  • CHILE – A large trade surplus in 2020, helped by terms of trade  

    Dynamic consumption and recovering oil prices would lead to a narrower trade surpluses ahead

  • COLOMBIA – Upside inflation surprise to end 2020, but core inflationary pressures limited  

    Renewed mobility restrictions and significant COP appreciation will keep inflationary pressures contained at the start of 2021.

  • CHILE – Labor market improvement continued in November  

    The recovery at the margin is reflecting the economic reopening and economic stimuli.

  • CHILE – Activity returns to growth in November  

    While commerce will remain dynamic, tighter mobility restrictions mean that the recovery path is set to be uneven.

  • COLOMBIA – Self-employment driving labor market gains in November  

    Incipient signs of improvement in employment could be countered by social distancing measures and the minimum wage increase.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity surprised to the upside in October  

    All sectors posted sequential gains in the quarter ended in October.

  • MEXICO – Activity recovery continued in October  

    Monthly GDP continued recovering on a sequential basis.

  • MEXICO – Inflation picked up in 1H December, reflecting the end of “El Buen Fin”  

    The numbers confirm that the effect of Black Friday on November inflation was transitory

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Uncertainty favors retention of significant impulse  

    We see rates stable at 0.5% throughout 2021 and part of 2022

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Board majority eyes inflation expectations  

    The minority is concerned with the possibility of a wider-than-estimated negative output gap.

  • ARGENTINA – Primary fiscal deficit narrowed in November  

    We see downside risk to our primary deficit forecast of 6.9% of GDP this year

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus collapsed in November  

    We see downside risk to our trade surplus forecast of USD 15.0 billion for this year.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A split stay-on-hold decision  

    A split board and the change in guard mean a deeper easing cycle cannot be ruled out

  • COLOMBIA – Wide trade deficit in October  

    The economic reopening and signs of a recovering labor market are supporting improved import dynamics.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand recovered in 3Q20  

    Domestic demand recovered at a slower pace than the external demand

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: further rate cuts likely in the near term  

    We expect Banxico to resume cutting the policy rate as soon as 1Q21.

  • ARGENTINA – GDP rebounds in 3Q20 following the easing of lockdowns  

    We recently raised our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -11% from -12%

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Activity and inflation on the rise  

    The economy continued to recover in the beginning of 4Q20.

  • ARGENTINA – A small respite for inflation in November  

    Lower-than-expected headline inflation does not brighten the cloudy horizon

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: COVID-19 cases accelerated  

    Downside risks to our GDP growth forecasts.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity recovery advances in October  

    With the economic reopening enduring at the backend of 2020, the continuance of the activity recovery is expected ahead.

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Three presidents in less than a week  

    Solid macro fundamentals offset political turbulence.

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Deal with IMF punted to 2021  

    Macro outlook remains challenging.

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: With a little help from the IMF  

    The government accessed the FCL amid a challenging fiscal situation, while a tax-reform is expected in 2021.

  • MEXICO – Inflation in November slowed down due to the “Buen Fin”  

    A fall in non-core fruits and vegetable prices also exerted downward pressure.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Still-uncertain scenario calls for prolonged monetary impulse  

    Investment dynamics would play a key role in the CB’s reaction function.

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation falls further in November  

    Inflation for 2020 will likely come in closer to 1.5%, rather than our current 2% call.

  • CHILE – Mining exports remain robust in November  

    Imports remain weak as uncertainty restricts investments and the energy drag persists.

  • CHILE – November inflation fall underscores transitory nature of recent upside surprises  

    Inflation came below expectations, hinting that pressure form pension withdrawal faded.

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit correction continued in 3Q20, but to still-wide levels   

    Despite soft domestic demand, weak terms-of-trade mean Colombia’s trade deficit correction is slow.

  • PERU – Inflation surprised to the upside in November  

    We now expect end of year 2020 inflation at 2.0% (compared to our previous forecast of 1.6%).

  • CHILE – Services drag activity down in October  

    Despite signs of a recovery, GDP remains well below pre-pandemic levels.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market recovery continues in October  

    Self-employment leads job recoveries, but private salaried posts are also posting gains

  • CHILE - Retail-led activity rise in October  

    With industrial production improving and retail sales surging, we expect the monthly GDP proxy to rise for the first time since February.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Reinforcing stable rates  

    The unanimous decision is consistent a prolonged period of rate stability.

  • CHILE – Job recovery continued in October  

    Lower unemployment was led by job gains at the margin

  • MEXICO – Further improvement in October’s trade balance  

    Manufacturing exports surpassed pre-outbreak levels

  • MEXICO – GDP recovery confirmed in 3Q20  

    The recovery was driven mainly by the manufacturing output

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: not the end of the easing cycle  

    Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath was the dissenting vote.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales recovered in 3Q20  

    Still retail sales remain below pre-outbreak levels.

  • MEXICO – 3Q20 Inflation Report: slightly higher inflation for 2021, but additional rate cuts are sti  

    Doubts over how persistent is the recent fall in inflation.

  • MEXICO – Sharp improvement of external accounts in 3Q20  

    The improvement in the current account balance was supported by the trade balance of goods.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity rebounded in 3Q20  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 12% for this year, but the risks are tilted to the upside

  • MEXICO – Downside surprise in 1H Nov inflation, linked to “El Buen Fin”  

    Core goods non-food inflation slowed down amid Mexico’s black Friday

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus fell again in October  

    We recently revised our trade surplus forecast down to USD 15.0 billion

  • ARGENTINA – Lower-than-expected primary deficit in October  

    We forecast a primary deficit of 6.9% of GDP this year, up from 0.4% in 2019.

  • PERU – GDP rebounded in 3Q20, amid narrowing current account deficit and deteriorating fiscal balanc  

    Final domestic demand recovery is supported by public and private demand

  • CHILE – Consumption leads activity recovery in 3Q20  

    Monetary and fiscal stimuli and individual liquidity injections would consolidate the recovery ahead.

  • CHILE – Near-balanced current account in 3Q20  

    Going forward, the consolidation of an activity recovery would lead to gradually wider current account deficits

  • COLOMBIA – Gradual activity recovery initiated in 3Q20  

    Despite the loosening of mobility restrictions over the course of the quarter, subnormal activity endured

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Strong sequential rebound in activity in 3Q20  

    Tax collection improved in 3Q20 in line with economic activity.

  • PERU – GDP proxy posted a solid recovery in 3Q20  

    Non-natural and natural resource sectors recovered further in September

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: The central bank will maintain its expansionary bias in monetary policy  

    The closure of borders during tourist season will hamper the recovery

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Somewhat more pragmatic   

    The government has made a slight shift toward orthodox economic policies

  • COLOMBIA – Retail sales drive economic recovery in 3Q20   

    The reopening of the economy, improving private sentiment and significant monetary stimulus would sustain the recovery process

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: The end of the easing cycle  

    We cannot rule out further cuts ahead if the activity recovery underwhelms and inflation expectations retreat

  • COLOMBIA – Mild trade deficit correction in September, as commodity drag persists  

    Milder import declines suggest a gradual domestic demand recovery is underway

  • ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected inflation in October  

    Inflation was markedly above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 3.1%.

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: a pause, not the end of the easing cycle  

    We expect Banxico to resume the easing cycle next year.

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: An earlier-than-expected new president  

    Heightened political turmoil amid market-unfriendly measures

  • MEXICO – Sharp industrial production recovery in 3Q20  

    Industrial production recovery is driven by the manufacturing output

  • MEXICO – Inflation advanced further in October  

    We now expect inflation at 3.9% for yearend 2020

  • CHILE – Copper exports led to another wide trade surplus in October  

    The economic reopening and significant stimuli in place should moderate the trade surpluses ahead

  • COLOMBIA – Downside inflation surprise in October  

    Muted inflationary pressures and a gradual activity recovery support a prolonged period of rates on-hold

  • MEXICO – Internal demand continued recovering in August  

    Still, internal demand indicators remain far below pre-outbreak levels

  • CHILE – Large upside inflation surprise in October  

    Inflation will likely end the year close to the central bank’s 3% target

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Improved outlook, but rates likely to stay low  

    The average policy rate would be marginally higher than the October median analyst expectations

  • CHILE – Activity improvement continued in September  

    GDP sits around 7% below the level prior to the pandemic, recovering from the cycle low of -16.2% in May

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: No reason to adjust expansionary stance  

    Flexibility on the unconventional measures will depend on possible financial market volatility ahead

  • COLOMBIA – Employment recovering in 3Q20  

    While the labor market is recovering, numerous uncertainties point to a gradual improvement ahead

  • CHILE – Participation and job gains at the margin signal labor market recovery underway in 3Q20  

    Lingering economic uncertainty would contain the pace of the recovery ahead

  • MEXICO – Flash GDP rebounded in 3Q20  

    Activity recovery is driven mainly by the industrial sector

  • MEXICO – Broadly stable fiscal balances as of the 3Q20  

    The MoF deteriorated slightly their fiscal balance estimates for 2020

  • CHILE – Strong activity to close 3Q20  

    With the economic reopening consolidating, as health indicators remain controlled, the activity recovery is expected to persist ahead

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Decision: The easing cycle has likely ended  

    Developments on the global front highlight that significant uncertainty persists

  • MEXICO – Another large trade surplus in September  

    The improvement in the trade balance is mainly supported by manufacturing exports

  • MEXICO – Activity recovery continued in August, but at a slower pace  

    Industrial output is recovering at a faster pace than services sector

  • MEXICO – Retail sales recovered further in August  

    The easing of distancing measures supported the recovery

  • ARGENTINA – Economic activity index improved in August  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 12% this year.

  • MEXICO – Inflation was above expectations in 1H October  

    Persistence in inflation increases the odds of Banxico pausing its easing cycle

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus declined in September  

    Our forecast for a surplus of USD 17.5 billion for this year has downside risks.

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit widened in 3Q20  

    Our forecast for the primary fiscal deficit this year stands at 6.9% of GDP (from 0.4% in 2019).

  • COLOMBIA – Despite weak imports, trade correction remained sluggish in August  

    Low terms-of-trade and still weak global activity mean Colombia’s external imbalances would persist.

  • PERU –Gradual recovery continued in August  

    Non-natural resource sectors supported the recovery in monthly GDP

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Steady on  

    The central bank would retain a significant monetary stimulus ahead, while adjustments to unconventional measures will be data dependent

  • COLOMBIA – Activity disappoints in August  

    Disappointing activity at the start of 2H20 likely mean the GDP contraction this year would exceed our 6% call.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation in-line with expectations in September  

    Core inflation slowed in September.

  • CHILE – Widespread upside inflation surprise in September  

    The annual inflation uptick is likely transitory amid a low base of comparison.

  • MEXICO – Above target inflation in September  

    Core goods inflation remained persistent

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: disagreement on further easing  

    Available room for maneuver will be data dependent

  • CHILE – Significant trade surplus in 3Q20  

    Improving consumer import dynamics is containing the surplus widening.

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation surprised to the upside in September  

    Despite the widespread acceleration at the margin, inflation remained low in September.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: The decline in GDP this year likely to be lower than anticipated  

    Agricultural sector moderates fall in GDP

  • MEXICO – Internal demand recovered further in July  

    However, momentum remains weak

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Inflation expectations decrease  

    We maintain our inflation forecast for this year of 9.5%.

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Impeachment averted, but risks remain  

    Political environment remains shaky

  • Pause in easing cycle as fiscal austerity continues  

    Narrower fiscal deficits for 2020 and 2021

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Relying on controls  

    The central bank has tigthtened exchange controls further

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Knocking on the IMF’s door  

    The FCL eligibility shows Colombia’s structural strengths, but the need to access it reflects a more challenging fiscal scenario.

  • PERU – Inflation accelerated in September  

    However, inflation continues to be below BCRP inflation target

  • CHILE – Activity recovery underwhelms in August  

    Services, construction, and manufacturing remained key drags, while commerce gains partly contained the decline.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market dynamics improve in August  

    The gradual reopening of the economy aided self-employment.

  • CHILE – Still weak labor market in August, despite some signs of improvement at the margin  

    Improvement of hours worked signals that the worst has likely passed

  • CHILE – Retail surge in August  

    Further easing of mobility restrictions, along with added pension payouts would consolidate a retail-led recovery

  • ARGENTINA – Current account balance showed strong surplus in 2Q20  

    we see upside risks to our forecast of a current account surplus of 0.6% of GDP for this year.

  • ARGENTINA – Economic activity rebounded in July  

    We expect the positive trend to consolidate with the easing of lockdowns in August and September

  • MEXICO – Strong improvement in August trade balance  

    The manufacturing sector is driving the economic recovery

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP recovered further in July   

    The recovery was driven mainly by the manufacturing sector

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Easing cycle extended, but likely concluded; FCL withdrawal anno  

    A split decision and capital flight concerns amid negative real interest rates suggest that the easing cycle likely ended.

  • ARGENTINA – Stronger-than-expected trade surplus in August  

    Imports continued to contract as internal demand remained weak

  • MEXICO – Another higher-than-expected inflation number in 1H September  

    Core goods inflation continues to be at a high level

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: an expected 25-bp rate cut before an easing cycle pause  

    Further monetary easing unlikely at least until the end of this year.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales recovered further in July  

    Still, retail sales are 12% below pre-outbreak levels

  • ARGENTINA – GDP collapsed in 2Q20 on negative effects of lockdowns  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 12.7% this year

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit worsened in August but at a slower pace  

    Our forecast for the primary fiscal deficit this year stands at 6.9% of GDP (from 0.4% in 2019),

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand collapsed in 2Q20  

    Weak domestic demand in 2Q20 reflect the negative shock from COVID-19

  • COLOMBIA – Weak commodity exports contain trade deficit correction in July  

    Recovering, but still low terms-of-trade and dampened global activity mean Colombia’s external account imbalances would persist ahead

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Shock magnitude calls for prolonged monetary impulse  

    Despite the less pessimistic outlook, ample stimulus is set to remain in place

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation rose in August  

    Headline inflation increased in August, in line with expectations and led by core items.

  • PERU – Economic recovery continued in July  

    Natural and non-natural resources sectors are supporting the recovery.

  • COLOMBIA – Slower-than-expected activity recovery in July  

    We revised our forecast for the July monthly coincident indicator (ISE) to a decline of 9.2%, only a modest improvement from the 11.1% drop in June.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production recovered further in July  

    The manufacturing sector is the main driver of the recovery

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: The government aims to reduce the fiscal deficit and inflation  

    The budget bill foresees a reduction of the consolidated fiscal deficit to 3.8% of GDP in 2021.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: The government plans to reduce the fiscal deficit gradually  

    The budget bill aims to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4% of GDP in 2021, from an estimated 7% for this year.

  • MEXICO – Higher inflation in August  

    Core goods inflation accelerated further

  • MEXICO – 2021 Budget: betting on responsible public finances, but risks remain  

    Optimistic oil production targets and GDP growth estimates risks missing fiscal targets

  • COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected inflation in August  

    A wide output gap and relatively stable currency ought to limit price increases going forward

  • CHILE – Unsurprising August inflation  

    The economic reopening and oil price recovery will counter dampened domestic demand, preventing inflation falling significantly further

  • CHILE – Another large trade surplus in August  

    Signs that import dynamics are improving would contain further surplus widening

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: Open for business  

    The central bank enters a wait-and-see mode, assessing the evolution of the economy while leaving the door open for further easing.

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: A chance to turn the page  

    Argentina will seek an agreement with the IMF following a successful debt restructuring with private creditors.

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Policy uncertainty originating in Congress  

    Fiscal accounts deteriorate amid COVID-19 shock

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Slow output gap narrowing, despite more optimistic growth forecasts  

    The macroeconomic scenario evolvement continues to be determined by the development of Covid-19 and containment measures

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit narrowing continues in 2Q20  

    Weak internal demand, recovering terms-of-trade, and a swifter global rebound will aid some further CAD narrowing

  • PERU – Below target inflation in August  

    Headline inflation stood below the central bank target for twelfth consecutive month

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Reaffirming low-for-long (but not forever) rates and no government  

    Government bond purchases could be used to address liquidity issues, but not boost aggregate demand.

  • CHILE – July activity confirms recovery is underway  

    Improvements on the health front, along significant monetary and fiscal impulses, are contributing to the recovery.

  • COLOMBIA – Still unfavorable labor market dynamics in July  

    As the mandatory quarantine was extended until the end of August, the labor market recovery is set to be gradual

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A cut before a pause  

    The board is likely to evaluate how the economy progresses, while keeping the door ajar for further easing

  • CHILE – Milder-than-expected activity drop in July  

    With the economy reopening, cash transfers and pension withdrawals materializing, the activity recovery advancing.

  • CHILE – Weak labor market endures in July  

    Historic job losses, record low participation and reduced work hours are consistent with only a gradual activity recovery scenario

  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: further (limited) easing contingent on data  

    While two members advocated for further easing, other two seem more cautious

  • MEXICO – Strong trade balance in July  

    Manufacturing exports recovered at a faster pace than non-oil imports

  • MEXICO – 2Q20 Inflation Report: weaker activity outlook, with temporarily higher inflation  

    Inflation forecasts increased for 2020

  • MEXICO – 2Q20 GDP collapsed, but recovery started in June  

    Still monthly GDP is far below pre-outbreak levels

  • ARGENTINA – Strong trade surplus in July  

    Trade surplus widened in July, on weak imports.

  • MEXICO – Zero current account deficit in 2Q20  

    Net portfolio flows and FDI deteriorated amid uncertainty surrounding the outbreak

  • MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the upside again in 1H August  

    Core goods CPI still growing above Banxico’s inflation target of 3%

  • MEXICO – Retail sales recovered in June, but momentum is still weak  

    Retail sales are still far below pre-covid levels in February

  • PERU – Deteriorating fiscal accounts and narrow CAD in 2Q20, amid a GDP collapse  

    Higher public debt expected for 2020 amid weak GDP and large fiscal stimulus

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit continued to widen in July  

    .

  • ARGENTINA – Sharp decline in economic activity in 2Q20  

    The lockdown hurt all sectors in 2Q20.

  • CHILE – Historic domestic demand slump in 2Q20  

    Activity is likely to gradually recovery ahead as the economy reopens and the fiscal stimulus reaches firms and consumers

  • CHILE – Large current account surplus in 2Q20  

    Lower oil prices, weaker domestic demand and a mining export increase favored the trade balance in 2Q20

  • PERU – Monthly GDP showed recovered in June by less than expected  

    However, the economy is still far below pre-outbreak levels in February

  • COLOMBIA – Record GDP drop in 2Q20  

    Dynamics within the quarter are in line with a gradual recovery

  • COLOMBIA – Small trade deficit in June  

    With oil prices recovering, further narrowing of the trade deficit is likely ahead.

  • COLOMBIA – Sequential activity recovery in June  

    Downbeat private sentiment, still-low terms-of-trade, significant job losses and elevated uncertainty point to a gradual recovery process ahead

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation was below market expectations in July  

    .

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: preparing for reducing the easing pace  

    We still expect the policy rate to reach 4.00% before the end of 2020

  • MEXICO – Industrial Production’s recovery started in June  

    The recovery was driven mainly by the manufacturing sector

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Central bank to change monetary policy instrument  

    The monetary policy committee has started a process to change the monetary policy instrument.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Harsher-than-expected impact from the lockdown  

    We adjusted our GDP growth forecast down to -3.5%, from -2.6% in our previous scenario

  • CHILE – Another large trade surplus in July  

    Imports remain weak as domestic demand weakens and uncertainty restrict investments

  • CHILE – Limited inflationary pressures in July  

    Falling service prices reflective of weak domestic demand

  • MEXICO – Inflation accelerated in July  

    Core goods CPI continues to grow above Banxico’s target of 3%

  • Macro Scenario – Colombia: A harsh reopening  

    The door to further easing is not closed, but upcoming rate decisions are set to be more data-dependent

  • Macro Scenario – Peru: Political confrontation resumes  

    Contagion reaccelerated in Peru as the economy reopens

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Debt restructuring is no guarantee of a brighter outlook  

    The next stop is a renegotiation with the IMF

  • Policy uncertainty amid the pandemic  

    The economic recovery will likely be curbed by policy uncertainty

  • MEXICO – Internal demand remained weak in May  

    May’s figures show a slower deterioration compared to last month

  • COLOMBIA – Milder-than-expected disinflation in July  

    The unwinding of government measures and reopening of the economy would contain downside pressures.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report: Low-for-long rates  

    An expansionary monetary policy stance is justified by the possibility of a 10% GDP contraction

  • CHILE – Activity ends 2Q20 on a (marginally) better note  

    As the country partially opens and the evolution of the coronavirus consolidates a favorable trend, an activity recovery is expected ahead

  • CHILE – Still weak June activity points to 14.6% yoy GDP contraction in 2Q20  

    With some easing of lockdown measures unfolding, some gradual economic recovery is anticipated

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Uncertainty over recovery  

    We expect the policy rate to remain at 0.5% and a boost to the QE measures in response to any significant deterioration of conditions.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Low policy rate level inspires caution over future moves  

    As we approach the end of the cycle, future moves would be dependent on how the recovery and inflation unfold

  • CHILE – Sharp labor market deterioration in 2Q20  

    As economic weakness endures and lockdown measures gradually lift, the labor market is likely to remain weak

  • MEXICO – Fiscal accounts deteriorated in 1H20, despite austerity  

    The MoF reduced its 2020 GDP forecast to -7.4%

  • MEXICO – Flash GDP collapsed in 2Q20  

    Industrial sector was affected the most by COVID-19

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market unravels in 2Q20  

    The extension of the lockdown to the end of August hints at only a slow labor market recovery ahead

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus widened in 2Q20  

    Hefty contraction of imports in 2Q20.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in June  

    A slower recovery in imports relative to exports supported the improvement in the trade balance

  • MEXICO – No activity recovery as of May  

    Monthly GDP in May surprised to the downside

  • MEXICO – Higher inflation in the first half of July  

    Core goods and gasoline prices exerted upward pressure to headline inflation

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal deficit continues to worsen in June  

    Expenditure increased in June, driven by social and energy subsidies.


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