Itaú BBA - Macro Latam
  • MEXICO – Banxico minutes: cautious tone, but further easing is likely  

    Despite the cautious tone, we expect Banxico to reduce monetary policy further in the upcoming months.

  • MEXICO – Higher fiscal deficits ahead  

    The fiscal update reflects worse fiscal revenues and some support to the economy through extra spending

  • CHILE – Upbeat activity in February  

    Despite the activity improvement at the beginning of 2019, we expect a 1.6% contraction this year.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Maximum monetary impulse necessary during unusual times  

    Widening output gap to dominate inflation trajectory

  • PERU – Inflation decelerated in March  

    Headline inflation was dragged by a sharp fall in core inflation

  • CHILE – Favorable activity dynamics ahead of global shock  

    We expect the GDP proxy for February to grow 3.3%.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: A 50-bp rate cut and “low for long” forward guidance  

    Any additional monetary stimulus would likely come through quantitative easing measures

  • CHILE – Labor market loosening in February  

    As economic conditions deteriorate, significant labor market loosening is expected ahead.

  • COLOMBIA – Disjointed labor market ahead of dual shock  

    The shock expected to hit activity this year would lead to some labor market loosening

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Additional easing is likely  

    We expect a 50bp rate cut to 0.5% at tomorrow’s monetary policy meeting.

  • ARGENTINA – Activity falling before coronavirus outbreak  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 4.4% for 2020.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: A 50-bp rate cut and strengthening liquidity measures  

    Our call is for stable rates ahead, but risks are tilted to more easing.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved even further in February  

    Manufacturing exports deteriorated on a monthly basis

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the downside in January  

    Economic activity to deteriorate sharply in 1H2020

  • ARGENTINA – Still-wide trade surplus in February  

    Lower commodity prices are likely to affect trade surplus this year

  • ARGENTINA – Current account turned into surplus in 4Q19  

    At the margin, we estimate that the s.a. current account surplus reached 2.3% of GDP in 4Q19.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales in January recovered  

    Coronavirus outbreak to hit private consumption in 1H2020

  • ARGENTINA – GDP fell 2.2% in 2019, marking two years of recession  

    Our GDP growth forecast for 2020 was recently revised down to -4.4% from -2.0%

  • MEXICO – Inflation decelerated in 1H March  

    Lower energy prices pressured down inflation

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy meeting anticipated: A 50-bp hawkish cut, but more easing is likely  

    We expect a policy rate of 5.50% by the end of 2020.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand remained weak in 4Q19  

    Public gross fixed investment deteriorated further.

  • COLOMBIA – Trade deficit narrowing in January to be short-lived  

    Amid the recent terms-of-trade collapse and the global scenario deterioration, Colombia’s external imbalances will likely endure ahead.

  • CHILE – Current account deficit widened in 2019  

    We expect a weaker domestic demand and lower energy prices to lead to a narrowing of external imbalance this year.

  • CHILE – A consumption implosion in 4Q19  

    The global expansion of COVID-19 and the resulting measures undertaken only enhance headwinds ahead.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: A 75-bp intermeeting rate cut and measures to support the financial  

    The global liquidity wave paved the way for rate cuts in Chile.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production recovered softly in January  

    Coronavirus outbreak pose downside risks to industrial production outlook

  • COLOMBIA – Retail sales continued to drive growth in January  

    Strong external headwinds will likely lead to a growth slowdown ahead

  • ARGENTINA – Disinflation continued in February  

    Tariff freeze decelerated headline inflation.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: No changes in monetary policy  

    Price stability would give the BCP room to maintain the current monetary policy rate.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: New government in office  

    The government is focused on public accounts.

  • MEXICO – Headline inflation rises beyond expectations, with core inflation slowing down  

    Annual inflation rebound will fade away in March as the unfavorable base effect disappears

  • CHILE – Another large trade surplus in February  

    The quick correction of Chile’s external imbalances is a favorable development that could alleviate part of the pressure on the CLP.

  • CHILE – Tradable inflation pushes inflation up once again  

    Inflation pass-through pressures will keep inflation elevated for the coming months until weakened internal demand

  • CHILE – Tradable inflation pushes inflation up once again  

    Inflation pass-through pressures will keep inflation elevated for the coming months until weakened internal demand

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation in line with expectations in February  

    Robust growth, along with the weakening of the Colombian peso, pose a risk to our disinflation expectation

  • MEXICO – Weak domestic demand in 4Q19  

    The figures show internal demand in Mexico was weak in 2019

  • COLOMBIA – Another wide current account deficit in 2019  

    The favorable FDI inflows to Colombia would continue to allay possible central bank concerns

  • PERU – Low inflation in February  

    Annual headline inflation stood below the central bank target for the sixth month in a row

  • CHILE – Activity off to a faster-than-expected start to 2020  

    Despite the positive dynamics at the beginning of the year, a continued momentum recovery is unlikely

  • CHILE – Actividad tiene un comienzo más rápido de lo esperado en 2020  

    A pesar de la dinámica positive al comienzo del año, parece poco probable que se sostenga el impulso

  • CHILE – Labor survey revamp results in higher historical unemployment  

    A further labor market loosening is expected amid low growth.

  • COLOMBIA – Favorable urban labor market developments in January  

    Labor market developments in urban zones is in line with a prolonged period of activity recovery and elevated business confidence levels

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in January  

    Manufacturing exports improved on a monthly basis, but momentum is still weak

  • CHILE – Activity recovery advances in January  

    Sectorial indicators point at a January GDP proxy (IMACEC) expansion of 1.0%.

  • ARGENTINA – Weak activity affects fiscal balance in January  

    Total revenues decreased by 8.2% yoy in real terms in January, dragged down by a weak tax collection

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy minutes: not committing with further rate cuts  

    Most members are data dependent for future monetary policy decisions

  • MEXICO – 4Q19 Inflation Report: Lower GDP growth forecasts and slightly higher inflation  

    The balance of risks for inflation was kept as uncertain

  • PERU – Soft 2019 GDP, amid narrow fiscal and external accounts  

    Final domestic demand was dragged mainly by weak gross fixed public investment

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus remained solid at the beginning of the year  

    Weak imports sustained a wide trade surplus in January.

  • ARGENTINA – GDP contraction in 2019  

    Economic activity marked two years of recession.

  • COLOMBIA – Trade deficit in 2019 widened to a three-year high  

    We expect the CAD was close to 4.5% of GDP last year (3.9% in 2018).

  • COLOMBIA – Growth in 2019 was the highest in 5 years  

    Growth in 4Q19 was broadly in line with 3Q19 as slowing consumption and investment were offset by a smaller net export drag.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Uncertainty keeps the board in wait-and-watch mode  

    Subtle signal that further loosening could once again become part of the discussion

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Decision: Board unanimously vote for another 25-bp rate cut  

    Deputy Governor Esquivel is no longer backing a 50-bp move.

  • COLOMBIA – Another strong year for retail, but can it endure?  

    Despite protests losing momentum by December, activity at the margin continued to weaken, hampering the carry-over for 2020

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Inflation under control  

    Below the inflation target

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Fiscal accounts deteriorated  

    The incoming government proposes a fiscal rule to ensure the sustainability of public finances.

  • CHILE – Inflation surprise as pass-through pressures materialize  

    Reflecting restrained domestic demand pressures is the near historical low non-tradable inflation

  • CHILE – Large trade balance result to start 2020  

    Still double-digit falls in consumer and capital goods imports underscore the weak domestic demand

  • COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected inflation to start the year  

    Moderating service inflation points to well-behaved core price dynamics

  • COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected inflation to start the year  

    Moderating service inflation points to well-behaved core price dynamics

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Report – Narrower output gap could justify a modest policy tightening  

    Despite a more gradual disinflation path now expected, inflation is viewed to be under control

  • CHILE – Activity bounce-back exceeds expectations in December  

    Expansionary monetary policy and fiscal stimulus would aid an activity recovery from 4Q19

  • CHILE – Bitter sweet labor market data in 4Q19  

    We expect the full impact of the recent events on the labor market to be reflected in coming months

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Reinforcing stable rates  

    Inflation balance of risks remains symmetrical.

  • COLOMBIA – Some labor market positives in 4Q19  

    If the labor market shows some improvement ahead, the central bank would not need to increase the monetary stimulus.

  • CHILE – Positive activity surprise to end a dismal year  

    Despite positive signs that activity is improving, downbeat private sentiment would lead to below potential growth this year

  • MEXICO – Weak 4Q19 GDP flash estimate  

    The economy likely contracted 0.1% in 2019

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Rates on hold amid uncertain inflation path  

    Our expectation of rates cuts depends on the impact of the Chilean peso on inflationary pressures

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in 2019  

    Weak non-oil imports supported the improvement in the trade balance

  • MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside in November  

    The real wage bill continues to expand at a solid pace

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP surprised to the downside in November  

    Economic activity momentum remained weak

  • ARGENTINA – Record trade surplus in 2019  

    We expect the trade surplus to remain wide in 2020

  • ARGENTINA – Further deceleration of activity at the end of 2019  

    Activity contracted by 2.3% yoy during the first 11 months of the year

  • ARGENTINA – Sharp adjustment of fiscal deficit in 2019  

    We forecast a primary deficit of 1% of GDP this year

  • MEXICO – Transitory inflation rebound  

    Inflation was pressured by an unfavorable base effect and an update in excise tax

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: GDP growth resumes after the drought  

    GDP growth resumed in 3Q19, led by consumption

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Challenges for the new administration  

    The fiscal deficit increased in 2019, becoming the foremost challenge for the new government

  • COLOMBIA – Large trade deficit in November  

    We expect the current account deficit to remain wide at around 4.5% of GDP for both 2019 and 2020.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity moderates in November  

    A gradual core retail sales slowdown expected ahead, in line with depressed sentiment and a weakening labor market

  • PERU – Weak economic activity in November  

    Economic activity was dragged mainly by a sharp contraction in construction output

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation ends 2019 at a high level  

    Our forecast for 2020 stands at 43%

  • MEXICO – Weak domestic demand in October  

    Uncertainties over the direction of domestic policy are weighing on investment

  • MEXICO – Industrial production remained weak in November  

    Industrial production surprised on the downside

  • MEXICO – Inflation falls further, but still gradual deceleration of core  

    Persistence in core inflation stand in the way of a more frontloaded easing cycle

  • CHILE – Lower-than-expected inflation in December  

    Despite the lower-than-expected inflation, our diffusion index points to above-target prints in coming months

  • CHILE – Large trade surplus to end 2019  

    An export normalization amid constrained imports would lead to a sharp narrowing of the current account deficit this year

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation in line with expectations at the close of 2019  

    Food price normalization after the recent supply shocks would aid the expected disinflation process this year

  • CHILE – Another sharp activity drop in November  

    As activity operations normalized during the final month of 2019, we expect a milder year-over-year activity contraction in December

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy minutes: further gradual rate cuts are likely  

    Divisions over the balance of risks for inflation remain

  • CHILE – Some positives in November labor market figures  

    Despite the November surprise, we expect a weakening labor market.

  • CHILE – Manufacturing activity recovered in November  

    We now expect a 3% contraction for the monthly GDP proxy in November.

  • MEXICO – Manufacturing exports suggest activity weakness persists in 4Q19  

    Manufacturing exports weakened in November

  • COLOMBIA – Mixed labor market signs in November  

    We expect only a gradual improvement of the labor market in 2020, so the central bank will likely remain on hold.

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP deteriorated in October  

    Services and industrial output were the main drags to economic activity

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Reinforcing stability  

    The board saw no reason to change the status quo

  • MEXICO – Soft domestic demand in 3Q19  

    Private gross fixed investment deteriorated further

  • MEXICO – Headline and core inflation fell by more than market expectations  

    Headline inflation decelerated, helped by a slowdown in both core and non-core inflation

  • ARGENTINA – Activity decelerated again at the beginning of 4Q19  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 2.9% for this year.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable rates retain appeal  

    We believe that the central bank will remain on hold for some time.

  • COLOMBIA – Tax reform re-approved  

    Despite tax reform approval, we note that Colombia's fiscal accounts remain fragile going forward.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the downside in October  

    At the margin, retail sales contracted sharply on a monthly basis

  • ARGENTINA – Current account deficit narrowed significantly in 3Q19  

    We forecast a current account deficit of 0.6% of GDP for this year

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy decision: reinforcing gradualism  

    Only one dissident board member voted for a 50-bp cut

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Economic activity recovers  

    Activity showed a strong rebound in the second half of the year.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Stable rates in the short-term, rate cuts possible afterwar  

    We expect rates on hold in coming months. However, a weak activity and higher unemployment rate ahead mean rate cuts remain possible

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: New government  

    Reducing the fiscal deficit is the main challenge of the new administration.

  • COLOMBIA – Weaker imports, but still a wide trade deficit  

    With domestic demand still upbeat, and global growth low, we expect the current account deficit to remain wide ahead

  • ARGENTINA – Short-lived GDP recovery in 3Q19  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 2.9% for this year.

  • PERU – Economic activity deteriorated further in October  

    Monthly GDP was dragged by construction output and non-primary manufacturing activity

  • COLOMBIA – Positive activity start to 4Q19  

    Social protests may curb activity dynamism ahead

  • MEXICO – October’s industrial production deteriorated further  

    The weakness in U.S. economic activity is reflected more clearly in Mexico’s manufacturing sector

  • ARGENTINA – Higher-than-expected inflation in November  

    Inflation to hit a record high in 2019.

  • CHILE – Trade balance still affected by social unrest in November  

    The expected internal demand collapse will lead to a swift narrowing of the current account balance next year.

  • MEXICO – CPI decelerated further, with annual core inflation falling slowly  

    Slow core inflation deceleration reinforce a gradual monetary easing cycle for now

  • COLOMBIA – Controlled inflation in November as shocks start to unwind  

    So far, only a mild pass-through from the depreciation of the Colombian peso has materialized

  • CHILE – Still well-behaved inflation in November  

    Tradable prices are starting to push inflation up

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand remained weak in 3Q19  

    Uncertainties facing the economy are weighing on investment

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: High inflation forecast bodes caution  

    Rate moves will depend on the evolution of activity, the labor market, exchange rate and inflation expectations

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable for some time  

    An uncertain inflation path amid opposing pressures inspired caution

  • CHILE – Stark retail sales contraction, while outlook is bleak  

    With consumer confidence at historic lows and the labor market set to loosen, consumption will slow significantly ahead

  • PERU – Inflation surprises to the upside in November, but remained low  

    Headline and core annual inflation remained practically unchanged

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit widens in 3Q19  

    A wide CAD would leave the Colombian peso vulnerable to the domestic uncertainties.

  • CHILE – Worst activity performance since global financial crisis  

    Despite falling activity, FX volatility will get in the way of rate cuts this month.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor market weakness persists in October  

    Rising unemployment rate and a possible labor market reform are key discussion points in the current social protests

  • CHILE – Labor market weakening begins  

    The greater Santiago data better reflects the impact of recent events.

  • CHILE – Large manufacturing drop in first major protest-affected data print  

    Record-low business confidence and weak activity point at no recovery of growth next year.

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy minutes: a gradual easing cycle  

    Strong divisions within the board remain.

  • MEXICO – Stable trade balance in October  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy is weighing on manufacturing exports

  • MEXICO – 3Q19 Inflation Report: Lower GDP growth forecasts and higher short-term core inflation  

    Core inflation projection shows a delay in its deceleration trend, compared to the past inflation report

  • ARGENTINA – Back to recession in 3Q19  

    We revised our GDP forecast down to a contraction of 2.9% for this year (from -2.5% in our previous scenario).

  • MEXICO – Above market expectations retail sales in September  

    At the margin, retail sales improved on a monthly basis, but momentum was soft in 3Q19

  • MEXICO – Annual GDP contracted in 3Q19  

    Past GDP revisions show the economy was in a mild technical recession in 1H19

  • MEXICO – Current account deficit (CAD) remained narrow in 3Q19  

    Net direct investment was enough to cover the CAD

  • MEXICO – Inflation accelerated slightly, with core slowing down gradually  

    Inflation came in broadly in line with market expectations.

  • PERU – GDP improved in 3Q19, while fiscal and external deficits remained narrow  

    Final domestic demand improved in 3Q19, supported by a recovery in private demand and public consumption

  • ARGENTINA – Solid trade surplus in October  

    Larger-than-expected trade surpluses over the last few months led to an upward revision of our forecast for 2019.

  • CHILE – Large current account deficit in 3Q19  

    Domestic demand wekaness, the exchange rate adjustment and some global recovery will favor the external account adjustment in Chile

  • CHILE – Growth peaked in 3Q19 prior to protests  

    Drivers of growth in the quarter will likely fade in coming quarters.

  • COLOMBIA – Favorable activity dynamics in 3Q19  

    Robust investment and consumption will drive growth of 3.3% this year (2.6% in 2018).

  • COLOMBIA – Weakening exports amid solidifying imports widen trade deficit in 3Q19  

    Robust domestic demand amid weak global activity suggests the current account deficit will remain wide ahead

  • ARGENTINA – Lower than expected headline inflation in October  

    Exchange rate controls have helped to moderate inflation in the basket of goods.

  • MEXICO – Banxico cut 25-bp the policy rate in another split decision  

    Marginal changes to the statement, with a dovish tone

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Second round  

    The Frente Amplio won in October, but the opposition joins with an eye on the second round.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Central Bank has completed easing cycle  

    Central Bank kept policy rate unchanged in October

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: In the midst of uncertainty  

    We believe the output gap would widen further, justifying lower rates

  • MEXICO – 3Q19 Industrial production improved, but momentum was weak  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy is weighting on Mexico’s manufacturing sector

  • CHILE – Higher-than-expected October inflation  

    A widening output gap would likely keep demand-side inflationary pressures contained ahead

  • MEXICO – CPI remained stable, while core inflation slowly declines  

    Core inflation slowdown increases the odds of Banxico frontloading the easing cycle

  • CHILE – October trade deficit as protests halt activity  

    Domestic uncertainty would lead to negative effect on import dynamics, while exports could benefit from improving global sentiment

  • MEXICO – Gross fixed investment recovered, but momentum is still weak  

    Construction investment supported the recovery

  • COLOMBIA – Higher inflation in October, but stable core  

    Unwinding of supply-side shocks, a negative output gap and controlled inflation expectations would aid the convergence towards 3% next year.

  • CHILE – Disappointing retail sales in September  

    With consumer confidence falling, credit growth slowing and supply-side shocks affecting operations, consumption is set to slump further.

  • CHILE – Weaker-than-expected activity ahead of protest effect  

    With activity set to slump in 4Q19, growth this year is likely to come in closer to 2% (2.2% previously expected)

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: No game changer  

    Stable rates remain the status quo

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Staying on hold and wrapping up the reserve accumulation program  

    The board continues to see that risks are balanced for inflation.

  • COLOMBIA – Weak labor market data in 3Q19  

    Weakness signs in the labor market mean robust consumption is not guaranteed

  • MEXICO – 3Q19 Public Finances supported by one-off revenues  

    The MoF increased the expected use of the stabilization fund to offset lower revenues in 2019

  • CHILE – Milder manufacturing bounce-back in September  

    We expect Imacec growth of 3.6% in September

  • CHILE – Labor market looked rosy in 3Q19  

    Risks to the unemployment rate are tilted to the upside given the recent events

  • MEXICO – Weak 3Q19 GDP flash estimate  

    Services, the largest sector of the economy, slowed down in 3Q19

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improvement moderated in 3Q19  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy is starting to weigh on Mexico’s manufacturing exports

  • MEXICO – Retail sales improved in August, but momentum is soft  

    The real wage bill is still helping to smooth the slowdown in private consumption

  • MEXICO – Inflation stood practically unchanged, with core slowing down gradually  

    Headline inflation stood close to Banxico’s central target

  • ARGENTINA – Activity declined in August  

    We expect activity to weaken further as the October presidential elections approach.

  • MEXICO – August GDP improved, but momentum remained soft  

    Services and manufacturing sectors decelerated, while mining and construction output recovered

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: 25-bp cut, more to come  

    The board left the door open to increasing the size of the monetary stimulus

  • ARGENTINA – Record trade surplus in September  

    Exports picked up, amid sluggish imports.

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Fiscal impulse  

    We have adjusted our fiscal deficit projection to 2.3% of GDP (from -1.5%).

  • COLOMBIA – Large trade deficit in August  

    Solid import growth and a double-digit export drop led to the largest August trade deficit on record.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Elections in sight  

    Available surveys point to two rounds of voting as the most likely scenario.

  • ARGENTINA – Further fiscal consolidation will be challenging  

    We don´t expect more fiscal consolidation ahead.

  • ARGENTINA – As anticipated, inflation spiked in September  

    Disinflation is likely to be slow and bumpy.

  • COLOMBIA – Retail sales drive activity in August  

    Surprisingly robust private consumption means growth this year could exceed our 3% call.

  • PERU – Economic activity recovered in August  

    Recovery in economic activity was supported by an improvement of the natural resources sector.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production surprised to the upside in August, but trend remains weak  

    Industrial production improved supported by a recovery in construction and mining output, but momentum remained soft

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes: a still cautious forward guidance  

    The acceleration of the easing cycle will depend on the favorable evolution of core inflation

  • MEXICO – September CPI fell further, while core inflation slowed slightly  

    We now expect inflation to end 2019 at 2.9%

  • CHILE – Large downside CPI surprise in September  

    The inflation data consolidates our view of a 25-bp rate cut, to 1.75% later this month

  • CHILE – Small trade surplus in 3Q19  

    The trade data is negative for activity, as it points to weak external and internal demand

  • COLOMBIA – Annual inflation rises further  

    The unwinding of food price shocks, the still-negative output gap and controlled inflation expectations would support disinflation next year

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand remained soft in July  

    Uncertainty surrounding the economy and delays in capital expenditure execution weigh on investment

  • CHILE - Upside retail surprise in August  

    Surprisingly upbeat August activity means growth could come in a tick above our 2.2% forecast for the year.

  • CHILE - Larger-than-expected activity boost in August  

    Given the strong August print, growth could come in above our 2.2% forecast this year (4% last year).

  • PERU – September’s inflation decelerated further  

    Inflation crossed below the BCRP central inflation target of 2%.

  • CHILE – Weak August activity, despite mining recovery  

    Below potential growth reinforces the expectation of another rate cut in October.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: In observation mode  

    Wait-and-see mode as the board observes the development of high inflation, resilient activity and a moderating labor market.

  • COLOMBIA – Sharp unemployment rise in August  

    We expect the unemployment rate to average 10.3% in 2019, from 9.7% for 2018.

  • CHILE – Unemployment ticks down in August amid fiscal boost  

    As the labor market reflects economic slack, it would bolster views that demand-side inflationary pressures remain low

  • ARGENTINA – Activity recovery will not last  

    We expect another round of weak activity indicators in the coming months.

  • MEXICO – Banxico cuts the policy rate by 25-bps, as expected; Two board members vote for a 50-bp cut  

    The probability of a lower policy rate than that we currently forecast is increasing.

  • ARGENTINA – Stronger-than-expected trade surplus in August  

    The decline in imports suggests a new round of weak activity following the primary election.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Another cut as soon as October?  

    Large uncertainty favors more gradual cuts ahead, with incoming data key behind the timing of the next movement.

  • ARGENTINA – Treasury posts new primary surplus, but further fiscal consolidation will be challenging  

    We recently raised our primary fiscal deficit forecast for this year to 0.8% of GDP.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable, but less expansionary, rates  

    We expect stable rates for the remainder of the year, but the balance of risks titled towards rate cuts rather than hikes ahead.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand deteriorated in 2Q19  

    Public and private investment deteriorated, while private consumption expanded at a soft pace

  • ARGENTINA – Modest GDP growth in 2Q19 will be short-lived.  

    No relief for the economic downturn. We recently adjusted our GDP forecasts down to -2.5% (from -1.4%).

  • COLOMBIA – Wider trade deficit in July  

    A challenging global scenario means Colombia’s external account imbalances are likely to persist

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: Activity likely to contract in 2019  

    We expect a 1.5% GDP contraction this year (from +1% previously).

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: We expect slower growth  

    We have cut our growth projections for Uruguay to zero growth in 2019 (from 0.5%) and 1.5% in 2020 (from 2%).

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