Itaú BBA - Macro Latam
  • PERU – BCRP in data dependent mode  

    Further easing will be dependent on incoming information.

  • COLOMBIA – Retail drives July activity  

    Strong activity momentum, along with rising inflation would lead the central bank to keep rates stable

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation resumed upward trend  

    Consumer prices spiked in August after a new depreciation of the peso.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production deteriorated further in July  

    Weakness in the U.S. economy seems to be starting to weigh on Mexico’s manufacturing sector

  • Macro Scenario – Argentina: Reality check  

    The government took a first step in debt-restructuring direction.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation decelerates in Mexico  

    Moderating inflation means higher odds of further monetary easing, likely already in September.

  • MEXICO – 2020 Budget: still responsible fiscal targets, but risk of fiscal slippage is high  

    Growth and oil production projections are on the optimistic side

  • MEXICO – August CPI decelerated, while core inflation remains sticky  

    We now expect inflation to end 2019 at 3.3%

  • CHILE – Weak imports lead to a trade surplus in August  

    Declining manufacturing exports along with weakened consumer and capital goods imports hint at unfavorable activity dynamics.

  • MEXICO – Soft domestic demand in 2Q19  

    Uncertainty surrounding the economy and delays in capital expenditure execution weigh on investment

  • COLOMBIA – Downward food inflation surprise in August  

    Inflation, coupled with positive developments on activity and a wide CAD means the policy rate will likely stay at 4,25% in the near term.

  • CHILE – Inflation ticks up in August  

    Despite low core inflationary pressures, headline inflation would end the year close to the target

  • CHILE – July activity in-line with expectations  

    The sluggish start to the year, along with mixed recovery signs, increase the likelihood of growth below our 2.4% call for 2019

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Report: Further, and even aggressive, easing is possible  

    More rate cuts are likely, but the timing and magnitude of additional easing is uncertain

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: 50-bp rate cut, more could come  

    The September’s decision raises the likelihood that the easing cycle extends beyond 100-bps, taking rates below 2.0%.

  • CHILE – Weaker-than-expected retail sales in July  

    The monthly GDP proxy would grow 3.2% in July, as the boost from manufacturing is partly offset by weaker-than-expected consumption data.

  • COLOMBIA – Wide, but broadly stable, CAD in 2Q19  

    The elevated CAD, rising headline inflation and the weakening of the COP would prevent the central bank from cutting rates in the short-term

  • PERU – Inflation fell further in August  

    Low inflation increases the odds of the BCRP cutting the policy rate further in the short-term

  • CHILE – Private job drag moderates in July  

    As the growth outlook remains uncertain, we expect job growth to remain contained

  • CHILE – Transitorily higher activity in July  

    Seasonal factors and a low base of comparison aided the activity recovery in the month.

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes: board split also on rate guidance  

    Board members seem to be divided on the monetary forward guidance.

  • MEXICO – 2Q19 Inflation Report: lower headline inflation and growth forecasts  

    The easing cycle is set to continue.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance narrowed, supported by weak internal demand  

    Non-oil imports deteriorated, dragged by a sharp contraction in imports of capital goods.

  • MEXICO – Sharp current account balance improvement in 2Q19  

    Narrower current account was supported by an improvement in the trade balance

  • MEXICO – 2Q19 GDP revised down  

    Mining and construction sectors were the main drags to economic activity

  • PERU – GDP remained soft in 2Q19, with sound fiscal and external accounts  

    Narrower current account was supported by an improvement in the trade balance

  • MEXICO – Inflation surprised to the downside, with core still at a high level  

    Headline inflation decelerated, dragged by non-core prices.

  • ARGENTINA – Mild activity growth in 2Q19  

    There are clear downside risks to our -1.4% GDP growth forecast for this year

  • ARGENTINA – Another strong trade surplus in July  

    The incoming administration will receive lower twin deficits, but the roll-over of debt will be challenging,

  • MEXICO – June’s retail sales deteriorated at the margin  

    The real wage bill is still helping to smooth the slowdown in private consumption

  • Macro Scenario – Paraguay: We expect less growth  

    The expected recovery for 2H19 would be lower.

  • Macro Scenario – Uruguay: Investments would sustain growth  

    New pulp mill boosts growth.

  • CHILE – Investment recovery lifts 2Q19 activity, but to a still-weak pace  

    External headwinds will limit the pace of recovery ahead

  • CHILE – Larger-than-expected current account deficit in 2Q19  

    As copper prices stay low and domestic demand remains weak, we see the CAD remaining wide

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy decision: In a split decision, the easing cycle begins  

    We now see the policy rate ending this year at 7.25%

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation slowdown will not last  

    Inflation is likely to resume an upward trend

  • COLOMBIA – Robust activity in 2Q19  

    Local and global headwinds make a sustained recovery in 2H19 unlikely.

  • PERU – Economic activity deteriorated in 2Q19  

    Non-natural and natural resources sectors decelerated in 2Q19

  • COLOMBIA – Mixed activity data in June  

    A meaningful activity acceleration in 2H19 remains elusive as consumer confidence stays low, the labor market weak and global growth slows.

  • COLOMBIA – Weakening imports, but still a wide trade deficit  

    With moderating global demand and low oil prices, we expect the CAD to remain wide, at 4.3% of GDP this year

  • MEXICO – Industrial production fell further in 2Q19  

    Oil and construction output dragged industrial production

  • PERU – Monetary Policy Decision: the BCRP cut its policy rate 25-bp  

    The BCRP didn’t close the door for additional cuts, but they are not granted.

  • CHILE – Unsurprising July inflation print favors a 25bp rate cut in September  

    Low core measures and our diffusion index point at contained inflationary pressures

  • MEXICO – July’s CPI decelerated, but core remains sticky  

    Core inflation still sticky

  • CHILE – Trade deficit in July  

    Weak global demand amid limited domestic demand would keep the CAD above 3% of GDP

  • COLOMBIA – Upside inflation surprise in July  

    The intensity and endurance of the supply shocks likely mean that inflation would end this year at 3.75%.

  • MEXICO – Gross fixed investment deteriorated further in May  

    Lingering uncertainties surrounding Mexico’s economy and transition effect will weight on investment outlook

  • CHILE – Activity disappoints in 2Q19  

    Despite a more favorable base of comparison and added stimulus measures, sufficient headwinds would limit the recovery ahead

  • COLOMBIA - Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Standing its ground  

    The board likely needs to see confirmation of weaker activity and a looser global monetary stance, so rate cuts in the near term seem unlikely

  • CHILE – Weak consumption in 2Q19  

    Low private confidence, a volatile external scenario, contained copper prices, and a weak labor market have resulted in an activity slowdown in 1H19

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: A September cut  

    The likelihood of a larger 50-bp cut in September has increased following recent developments

  • PERU – Core and headline inflation decelerated in July, increasing the odds of a rate cut in August  

    Widening output gap conditions curb inflationary pressures

  • MEXICO – Weak GDP flash estimate in 2Q19  

    Although sequential GDP improved, economic activity remained soft in 2Q19

  • MEXICO – 2Q19 Public Finances consistent with AMLO’s austerity measures  

    The MoF is considering using the stabilization fund to offset lower revenues in 2019

  • CHILE – Manufacturing hampers activity in June  

    Poor manufacturing points to weak consumption and investment, in line with our 2,4% growth forecast for the year.

  • CHILE – Underwhelming labor market dynamics in 2Q19  

    Despite stable unemployment, poor quality of job creation and falling participation are risks to consumption growth ahead.

  • COLOMBIA – Weak labor market in 2Q19  

    In 2Q19, the participation rate dropped to the lowest level since 2Q10, containing a further surge in the unemployment rate

  • MEXICO – Weak economic activity in May  

    Monthly GDP was dragged by construction and mining

  • ARGENTINA – Solid trade surplus in June  

    The shift in the trade balance is driven by falling imports.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in 2Q19 supported by weak import growth  

    At the margin, non-oil imports deteriorated, reflecting weakness in internal demand.

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: No signal of a rate cut (yet)  

    Confirmation of weaker-than-expected activity and a the looser global monetary stance needed before lowering rates

  • ARGENTINA – Activity continued to improve in May  

    The negative impact of the severe drought in 2018 is in the past.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside in May  

    The real wage bill is a buffer for private consumption

  • MEXICO – Inflation falls further, but core remains sticky  

    Headline and core inflation slowed down, remaining below the upper bound of the range around central bank’s target.

  • COLOMBIA – Large trade deficit in May, despite weakening imports  

    Moderating global demand and low oil prices would keep the CAD wide

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Dovish tone points to September cut  

    July’s decision is in line with our expectation of lower rates (at 2%) by yearend.

  • Macro Scenario - Uruguay: Presidential candidates confirmed  

    Daniel Martínez, Luis Lacalle Pou and Ernesto Talvi will be the main contenders in the presidential elections.

  • Macro Scenario - Paraguay: More room for a rate cut  

    We expect a new monetary policy interest rate cut of 25 bps, leaving the rate at 4.5% for the end of the year.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation continued to drop gradually in June  

    Moderate disinflation will likely continue in July

  • COLOMBIA – Activity surprises to the upside in May  

    Despite firm readings in May, the economy still faces significant headwinds

  • ARGENTINA – Treasury posts primary surplus in 1H19  

    Real expenditure cuts continued to support fiscal consolidation.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production deteriorated further in May  

    At the margin, oil and construction output dragged industrial production

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes confirm a divided board with growing odds of a rate cut in 3Q19  

    The majority of board members are still concerned about the evolution of core inflation

  • MEXICO – June’s CPI slowed down, but with core inflation accelerating  

    Core inflation still uncomfortable

  • COLOMBIA – Core inflation stable at 3% target in June  

    As supply shocks fade, inflation is likely to retreat towards the central bank’s 3% target

  • CHILE – Low inflation in June  

    Given our outlook of a growth slowdown this year, we do not expect a notable acceleration of inflation

  • CHILE – Weakening external and domestic demand in 2Q19  

    With low global and internal demand growth, the current account deficit is seen staying broadly stable and wide.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand momentum remained weak in April  

    Lingering uncertainties surrounding Mexico’s economy will weight on investment outlook

  • CHILE – Services leads weak activity in May  

    Downbeat private sentiment amid an uncertain global scenario justify our 2.4% growth call for this year

  • CHILE – Temporary retail boost in May  

    We expect another below potential Imacec print (monthly GDP proxy) of 2.3% in May (2.1% in April).

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Arguing for stable rates  

    A widening output gap, controlled inflation and loosening global financial conditions will allow for lower rates ahead.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor dynamics deteriorate in May  

    The loosening labor market, amid depressed sentiment point to weak consumption ahead.

  • CHILE – Manufacturing improves, but mining drag returns in May  

    Weaker growth in machinery and equipment manufacturing hints at an investment slowdown.

  • CHILE – Uninspiring labor market in May  

    With the Chilean growth outlook deteriorating, the labor market is unlikely to improve meaningfully.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in May, amid weak import growth  

    At the margin, non-oil imports deteriorated, reflecting weakness in internal demand.

  • ARGENTINA – External deficit correction continues in 2Q19  

    We expect a trade surplus of USD 7.5 billion for 2019

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy decision: A split board votes to keep the reference rate unchanged  

    We expect Banxico to deliver two 25-bp rate cuts in the last quarter of 2019

  • ARGENTINA – Output Rebounded in Early 2Q19  

    We note that the risks to our GDP growth forecast for the year (-1.4%) are still tilted to the downside

  • MEXICO – Economy remained weak in April  

    Services sectors deteriorated further, while manufacturing sector improved somewhat.

  • Macro Scenario - Paraguay: Weakening activity  

    We lowered our GDP forecast for 2019 to 1.7% from 3% due to the drought and a scenario of decelerating regional and global growth.

  • Macro Scenario - Uruguay: Electoral race kicks off  

    We lowered our GDP growth projections to 0.5% for 2019 (from 0.7%) and 1.5% for 2020 (from 2%).

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable rates, but edging towards easing  

    A widening output gap and controlled inflation would likely lead the central bank to cut rates.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: No option but to cut  

    Given we hold a less optimistic outlook on growth (and hence subdued inflation ahead), we expect further easing.

  • MEXICO – Headline inflation slowed down, but core inflation remains under pressure  

    Headline inflation reached the upper bound of the range around central bank’s target.

  • COLOMBIA – Wider-than-expected trade deficit in April  

    Due to the transitory uptick in imports, further widening of the trade deficit is not expected

  • ARGENTINA – New drop in federal primary fiscal deficit  

    We estimate that the 12-month rolling primary deficit fell to 1.6% of GDP from 1.8% in April

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand weakened in 1Q19  

    Public and private spending weakened, while exports decelerated

  • ARGENTINA – GDP continued to drop at the beginning of the year  

    The decline was in line with expectations.

  • PERU – Weak economic activity in April  

    Economic activity in April was dragged mainly by fishing output

  • COLOMBIA – Slow activity start to 2Q19  

    Weak activity in the first third of the year suggests the impact of weakening global growth could be filtering through to the Colombian

  • PERU – Monetary Policy Decision: rate cuts on the horizon  

    The BCRP highlights softer economic activity

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation declined in May, in line with expectations  

    Lower volatility of the exchange rate and tight monetary policy contributed to a modest disinflation

  • MEXICO – Industrial production remained soft in April  

    Manufacturing output momentum improved somewhat

  • CHILE – Inflation Report: Only a 50-basis point cycle?  

    With growth risks that are seen tilted to the downside, the central bank left the door open for additional easing.

  • MEXICO – May’s CPI was below market expectations, but remained high  

    On an annual basis, headline and core inflation decelerated to still-high levels

  • CHILE - Monetary Policy Meeting: Surprising 50bp rate cut  

    Although the central bank does not signal further rate cuts, we see room for an additional 50bps of easing to 2%.

  • CHILE – Inflation remains low, despite upside surprise in May  

    As oil price gains unwind, while domestic demand growth is restrained, we expect a gradual inflation rise ahead

  • CHILE – Smaller-than-expected trade surplus in May  

    With reduced global demand and low copper prices ahead amid the escalating trade war, there are upside CAD risks

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation ticks up in May, but still under control  

    Manageable inflation and a widening output gap opens the door for the central bank to consider additional monetary easing

  • MEXICO – Weak gross fixed investment in March  

    A recovery of GFI is unlikely to be lasting due to a high uncertainty environment

  • COLOMBIA – Wider current account deficit in 1Q19  

    Amid a challenging global scenario and terms-of-trade that would likely deteriorate, the current account deficit would remain wide this year.

  • CHILE – Weak activity in April  

    Activity in the primary sector is expected to improve ahead but we see clear downside risks to our 3% growth outlook.

  • PERU – May’s inflation accelerated, but core inflation was well-behaved  

    CPI was pressured mainly by non-core items

  • CHILE – Consumption decoupling from investment, for now  

    The increasingly complex external scenario is resulting in growing domestic uncertainty

  • CHILE - Job growth accelerates, but risks ahead  

    As headwinds pick up, it is unlikely the unemployment rate would narrow significantly from the 7% recorded last year

  • CHILE - Weak April activity despite improved mining  

    Robust machinery and equipment activity along with solid construction activity in 1Q19 bodes well for the investment recovery

  • COLOMBIA – Employment sinks in April  

    Falling participation and overall job shedding does not bode well for consumption dynamism ahead.

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes: Closing the doors for rate cuts in the near-term  

    Most members believe there are still significant risks for inflation, despite greater economic activity slack

  • MEXICO – 1Q19 Inflation Report: higher inflation forecasts despite lower growth  

    The balance of risks for inflation is titled to the upside

  • CHILE - Monetary Policy Minutes: Analyzing its options  

    The introduction of rate cuts into the discussion highlights the potential change in course ahead

  • MEXICO – Trade deficit narrowed in April  

    At the margin, manufacturing exports and non-oil imports weakened

  • PERU – Soft 1Q19 GDP, with solid fiscal and external accounts  

    Final domestic demand was dragged mainly by a fall of public demand

  • MEXICO – GDP weakened in 1Q19  

    Industrial and services sectors weakened

  • MEXICO – Current account deficit (CAD) narrowed in 1Q19  

    Net direct investment deteriorated in the 1Q19, although it was still enough to cover the CAD

  • ARGENTINA – Strong trade surplus in April  

    The adjustment of external accounts is on track.

  • MEXICO – Headline and core inflation decelerated slightly in the 1H of May  

    Headline inflation is still above the upper bound of the range around central bank’s target

  • ARGENTINA – Output dipped further than expected in March  

    The risk to our base-case economic scenario for 2019 remains tilted to the downside

  • MEXICO – On an annual basis, retail sales moderated its pace in 1Q19  

    higher real wages are a buffer for private consumption

  • CHILE - Weak activity start to 2019  

    Depressed private sentiment and a slowing global economy mean Chile’s growth risks are tilted to the downside

  • CHILE - Smaller than expected current account balance deficit  

    Financing the CAD remains complicated as inflows of direct investment stay low

  • Macro Scenario - Paraguay: Drought curbs economic growth  

    The decline in activity was caused by a weaker agriculture performance.

  • Macro Scenario - Uruguay: Moderating economic growth  

    Leading indicators suggest weak GDP growth in 1Q19.

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy decision: On-hold; statement’s tone remained hawkish  

    The balance of risks for inflation continues to be tilted to the upside.

  • PERU – Economic activity weakened in 1Q19  

    Economic activity in 1Q19 was dragged by fishing and construction output

  • COLOMBIA – Activity recovery stalls in 1Q19  

    We expect activity to improve from last year, but downside risks to our outlook are rising

  • ARGENTINA – April headline inflation eased more than expected  

    Inflation is expected to continue falling in May.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity indicators upbeat in the 1Q19  

    Robust sector indicators and strong imports of capital goods are consistent with GDP growth of 3.4% in 1Q19.

  • COLOMBIA – Wide trade deficit in 1Q19  

    Weaker global economy and some internal demand recovery would prevent a correction of external accounts.

  • CHILE - Monetary Policy Meeting: The waiting game  

    Raising global tensions may be motivating additional caution within the board.

  • PERU – Monetary Policy Decision: Hikes this year becoming less likely  

    Trade wars on BCRP radar again.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production remained weak in 1Q19  

    Manufacturing output decelerated on an annual basis

  • MEXICO – Core inflation accelerated in April, pressured by a Easter effect  

    The Easter effect partially faded away in the 2H of April

  • CHILE – Low and stable inflation in April  

    Contained inflationary pressures and sluggish activity justify stable rates

  • CHILE – Trade surplus narrows in April  

    The composition of imports partly mitigates external vulnerabilities

  • MEXICO – Gross fixed investment improved at the margin  

    Uncertainty over the direction of domestic policy and the approval of the USMCA will continue to weigh on investment outlook

  • COLOMBIA – Food drives inflation surprise again  

    We expect inflation to end the year at 3.0% target, however, there are upside risks

  • CHILE – Widespread activity slowdown in 1Q19  

    Moderating business and consumer confidence amid elevated global risks pose a growing risk to our 2019 growth scenario

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Stable rates in line with slow activity recovery and wel  

    The ongoing, but slow, activity recovery is concerning some board members.

  • CHILE – Consumption slows in 1Q19  

    Despite low inflation and an expansionary monetary policy, private consumption related activity is weakening

  • MEXICO – 1Q19 fiscal balance helped by lower expenditures  

    Lower oil production and weak growth are the main risks to public finances

  • PERU – Inflation accelerated in April  

    CPI was driven by an increase in prices of bus transportation, tourism related services and seafood due to Easter holidays

  • MEXICO – Weak GDP flash estimate in the 1Q19  

    On an annual basis, Industrial sector contracted, while services sectors moderated its pace

  • COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate increases further, despite stronger job creation  

    While there are some positives, the labor market remains weak

  • CHILE – Industrial production shrinks in 1Q19  

    Despite weak industrial activity, the investment outlook remains positive.

  • ARGENTINA – Output recovery continued in February  

    The risks to our base-case economic scenario for 2019 are high.

  • CHILE – Employment growth accelerates at the start of the year  

    In an environment of low inflation and expansionary monetary policy, we expect employment to improve gradually

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP decelerated in February  

    Industrial and services sectors slowed down

  • MEXICO – Trade deficit narrows at the margin  

    Manufacturing exports and non-oil imports improved at the margin, but grew at a soft pace

  • Social Security reform item by item: impacts and dilutions  

    Reform is essential to fiscal rebalancing

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable rates, but BoP sneaks into the discussion  

    Additional widening in the CAD or tightening of financial conditions could change the mood in the board

  • MEXICO – Retail sales momentum remained soft in February  

    Higher real wages are a buffer for private consumption

  • MEXICO – CPI surprised to the upside in the first half of April  

    CPI was pressured by an increase in prices of tourism related services and airfares due to Easter holidays

  • ARGENTINA – Stronger-than-expected trade surplus in March  

    Weak activity and currency lead to a rapid adjustment.

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal consolidation in 1Q19 meets target  

    We note an upward risk to our forecast of a deficit of 0.5% of GDP

  • COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened further in February  

    Still weak energy exports is offsetting the moderation in imports.

  • Macro Scenario - Paraguay: Cutting the interest rate  

    Low inflation allowed monetary-policy easing

  • Macro Scenario - Uruguay: Lower growth and rising inflation  

    Inflation remains above the target range.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation strongly surprises to the upside, triggering changes in the exchange rate poli  

    The bar for foreign exchange sales by the central bank is now lower

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The brakes are on  

    The central bank has gone fully neutral

  • PERU – Economic activity remained soft in February  

    Fishing, construction and metallic mining output were the main drags to economic activity

  • PERU – Monetary Policy Decision: BCRP remains on hold  

    April’s communique tone remained practically unchanged compared to last month statement

  • MEXICO – Industrial production momentum still weak  

    Manufacturing sector fell on a quarter-over-quarter basis

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes: Most board members still worried with the inflation outlook  

    However, deputy governor Esquivel advocated for a more neutral tone in the policy statement.

  • MEXICO – On an annual basis, March’s headline inflation accelerated somewhat pressured by energy pri  

    Core inflation remained practically unchanged compared to last month

  • MEXICO – GFI remained weak, while private consumption grew at a below trend pace in the quarter ende  

    We expect economic activity to slow to 1.4% in 2019 (from 2018: 2.0%)

  • CHILE – Imports slow in 1Q19  

    Weakening industrial export dynamics reflect the slowing global economy

  • COLOMBIA – Transitory inflation pick-up in March  

    As the food price uptick passes, inflation would return towards the 3% target.

  • CHILE – Upside inflation surprise in March  

    A moderation in downside inflationary pressures is in line with the view that low inflation is transitory

  • CHILE – Sluggish activity in February  

    Mining activity was affected by transitory factors

  • CHILE – Weak retail in February, but investment indicators still strong  

    Low rates and a prolonged period of mild inflation would aid retail dynamism going forward.

  • PERU – Headline and core inflation accelerated in March  

    CPI was pressured by seasonality in prices from vegetables and legumes and education services

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Comfortably on-hold  

    We believe that the central bank will remain on hold for the time being and move closer to neutral rates only later this year.

  • CHILE – Inflation Report: Low inflation requires low rates for longer  

    Arrival to neutral rate delayed to 1H21.

  • COLOMBIA – Improving labor market signs in February  

    Rising participation partly explains the sharp unemployment rate rise.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Following the global liquidity tide  

    Stable rates for most of this year is the likely base case scenario

  • ARGENTINA – Signs of output stabilization  

    In year-over-year terms, activity fell by 5.7%, slightly better than the market consensus expectations

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy decision: On-hold, as expected; without a significant change in tone  

    The balance of risks for inflation continues to be tilted to the upside.

  • MEXICO – Trade deficit narrowed in February, with both exports and imports contracting  

    Deceleration in manufacturing exports and non-oil imports reflects some weakness in February’s economic activity.

  • ARGENTINA – Sharp adjustment of current account in 4Q18  

    The rapid adjustment of the current account deficit is ongoing.

  • MEXICO – Weak retails sales in January  

    The deceleration of retail sales will be curbed by higher real wages

  • ARGENTINA – Another strong trade surplus in February  

    Export growth was driven by non-agricultural products

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP remained weak in January  

    Manufacturing and services sectors grew at a below trend rate

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: No rate moves in sight  

    We only expect a rate hike by the end of the year

  • MEXICO – CPI was below market expectations, with core inflation gradually decelerating  

    Annual inflation continues within the range around central bank’s target

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand weakened in 4Q18  

    Public and private demand decelerated on an annual basis

  • ARGENTINA – GDP fell 2.5% in 2018  

    We project a GDP contraction of 1.2% for this year.

  • Macro Scenario - Paraguay: The economy slows down  

    We adjusted our 2019 GDP growth forecast to 3.5%, down from 4% previously

  • COLOMBIA – A large trade deficit in January  

    A wide-current account deficit mean risks are tilted towards some weakening of the Colombian peso

  • Macro Scenario - Uruguay: 2018 consolidated fiscal deficit is revised upward  

    We note that the deficit includes extraordinary revenues of 1.4% of GDP related to the “over 50” law

  • CHILE – A sharp widening of the current account deficit in 2018  

    As domestic demand continues to expand at a decent pace, we expect the current account deficit to remain wide

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