Itaú BBA - Macro Latam
  • COLOMBIA – Activity surprises to the upside in May  

    Despite firm readings in May, the economy still faces significant headwinds

  • ARGENTINA – Treasury posts primary surplus in 1H19  

    Real expenditure cuts continued to support fiscal consolidation.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production deteriorated further in May  

    At the margin, oil and construction output dragged industrial production

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes confirm a divided board with growing odds of a rate cut in 3Q19  

    The majority of board members are still concerned about the evolution of core inflation

  • MEXICO – June’s CPI slowed down, but with core inflation accelerating  

    Core inflation still uncomfortable

  • COLOMBIA – Core inflation stable at 3% target in June  

    As supply shocks fade, inflation is likely to retreat towards the central bank’s 3% target

  • CHILE – Low inflation in June  

    Given our outlook of a growth slowdown this year, we do not expect a notable acceleration of inflation

  • CHILE – Weakening external and domestic demand in 2Q19  

    With low global and internal demand growth, the current account deficit is seen staying broadly stable and wide.

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand momentum remained weak in April  

    Lingering uncertainties surrounding Mexico’s economy will weight on investment outlook

  • CHILE – Services leads weak activity in May  

    Downbeat private sentiment amid an uncertain global scenario justify our 2.4% growth call for this year

  • CHILE – Temporary retail boost in May  

    We expect another below potential Imacec print (monthly GDP proxy) of 2.3% in May (2.1% in April).

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Arguing for stable rates  

    A widening output gap, controlled inflation and loosening global financial conditions will allow for lower rates ahead.

  • COLOMBIA – Labor dynamics deteriorate in May  

    The loosening labor market, amid depressed sentiment point to weak consumption ahead.

  • CHILE – Manufacturing improves, but mining drag returns in May  

    Weaker growth in machinery and equipment manufacturing hints at an investment slowdown.

  • CHILE – Uninspiring labor market in May  

    With the Chilean growth outlook deteriorating, the labor market is unlikely to improve meaningfully.

  • MEXICO – Trade balance improved in May, amid weak import growth  

    At the margin, non-oil imports deteriorated, reflecting weakness in internal demand.

  • ARGENTINA – External deficit correction continues in 2Q19  

    We expect a trade surplus of USD 7.5 billion for 2019

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy decision: A split board votes to keep the reference rate unchanged  

    We expect Banxico to deliver two 25-bp rate cuts in the last quarter of 2019

  • ARGENTINA – Output Rebounded in Early 2Q19  

    We note that the risks to our GDP growth forecast for the year (-1.4%) are still tilted to the downside

  • MEXICO – Economy remained weak in April  

    Services sectors deteriorated further, while manufacturing sector improved somewhat.

  • Macro Scenario - Paraguay: Weakening activity  

    We lowered our GDP forecast for 2019 to 1.7% from 3% due to the drought and a scenario of decelerating regional and global growth.

  • Macro Scenario - Uruguay: Electoral race kicks off  

    We lowered our GDP growth projections to 0.5% for 2019 (from 0.7%) and 1.5% for 2020 (from 2%).

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable rates, but edging towards easing  

    A widening output gap and controlled inflation would likely lead the central bank to cut rates.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: No option but to cut  

    Given we hold a less optimistic outlook on growth (and hence subdued inflation ahead), we expect further easing.

  • MEXICO – Headline inflation slowed down, but core inflation remains under pressure  

    Headline inflation reached the upper bound of the range around central bank’s target.

  • COLOMBIA – Wider-than-expected trade deficit in April  

    Due to the transitory uptick in imports, further widening of the trade deficit is not expected

  • ARGENTINA – New drop in federal primary fiscal deficit  

    We estimate that the 12-month rolling primary deficit fell to 1.6% of GDP from 1.8% in April

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand weakened in 1Q19  

    Public and private spending weakened, while exports decelerated

  • ARGENTINA – GDP continued to drop at the beginning of the year  

    The decline was in line with expectations.

  • PERU – Weak economic activity in April  

    Economic activity in April was dragged mainly by fishing output

  • COLOMBIA – Slow activity start to 2Q19  

    Weak activity in the first third of the year suggests the impact of weakening global growth could be filtering through to the Colombian

  • PERU – Monetary Policy Decision: rate cuts on the horizon  

    The BCRP highlights softer economic activity

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation declined in May, in line with expectations  

    Lower volatility of the exchange rate and tight monetary policy contributed to a modest disinflation

  • MEXICO – Industrial production remained soft in April  

    Manufacturing output momentum improved somewhat

  • CHILE – Inflation Report: Only a 50-basis point cycle?  

    With growth risks that are seen tilted to the downside, the central bank left the door open for additional easing.

  • MEXICO – May’s CPI was below market expectations, but remained high  

    On an annual basis, headline and core inflation decelerated to still-high levels

  • CHILE - Monetary Policy Meeting: Surprising 50bp rate cut  

    Although the central bank does not signal further rate cuts, we see room for an additional 50bps of easing to 2%.

  • CHILE – Inflation remains low, despite upside surprise in May  

    As oil price gains unwind, while domestic demand growth is restrained, we expect a gradual inflation rise ahead

  • CHILE – Smaller-than-expected trade surplus in May  

    With reduced global demand and low copper prices ahead amid the escalating trade war, there are upside CAD risks

  • COLOMBIA – Inflation ticks up in May, but still under control  

    Manageable inflation and a widening output gap opens the door for the central bank to consider additional monetary easing

  • MEXICO – Weak gross fixed investment in March  

    A recovery of GFI is unlikely to be lasting due to a high uncertainty environment

  • COLOMBIA – Wider current account deficit in 1Q19  

    Amid a challenging global scenario and terms-of-trade that would likely deteriorate, the current account deficit would remain wide this year.

  • CHILE – Weak activity in April  

    Activity in the primary sector is expected to improve ahead but we see clear downside risks to our 3% growth outlook.

  • PERU – May’s inflation accelerated, but core inflation was well-behaved  

    CPI was pressured mainly by non-core items

  • CHILE – Consumption decoupling from investment, for now  

    The increasingly complex external scenario is resulting in growing domestic uncertainty

  • CHILE - Job growth accelerates, but risks ahead  

    As headwinds pick up, it is unlikely the unemployment rate would narrow significantly from the 7% recorded last year

  • CHILE - Weak April activity despite improved mining  

    Robust machinery and equipment activity along with solid construction activity in 1Q19 bodes well for the investment recovery

  • COLOMBIA – Employment sinks in April  

    Falling participation and overall job shedding does not bode well for consumption dynamism ahead.

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes: Closing the doors for rate cuts in the near-term  

    Most members believe there are still significant risks for inflation, despite greater economic activity slack

  • MEXICO – 1Q19 Inflation Report: higher inflation forecasts despite lower growth  

    The balance of risks for inflation is titled to the upside

  • CHILE - Monetary Policy Minutes: Analyzing its options  

    The introduction of rate cuts into the discussion highlights the potential change in course ahead

  • MEXICO – Trade deficit narrowed in April  

    At the margin, manufacturing exports and non-oil imports weakened

  • PERU – Soft 1Q19 GDP, with solid fiscal and external accounts  

    Final domestic demand was dragged mainly by a fall of public demand

  • MEXICO – GDP weakened in 1Q19  

    Industrial and services sectors weakened

  • MEXICO – Current account deficit (CAD) narrowed in 1Q19  

    Net direct investment deteriorated in the 1Q19, although it was still enough to cover the CAD

  • ARGENTINA – Strong trade surplus in April  

    The adjustment of external accounts is on track.

  • MEXICO – Headline and core inflation decelerated slightly in the 1H of May  

    Headline inflation is still above the upper bound of the range around central bank’s target

  • ARGENTINA – Output dipped further than expected in March  

    The risk to our base-case economic scenario for 2019 remains tilted to the downside

  • MEXICO – On an annual basis, retail sales moderated its pace in 1Q19  

    higher real wages are a buffer for private consumption

  • CHILE - Weak activity start to 2019  

    Depressed private sentiment and a slowing global economy mean Chile’s growth risks are tilted to the downside

  • CHILE - Smaller than expected current account balance deficit  

    Financing the CAD remains complicated as inflows of direct investment stay low

  • Macro Scenario - Paraguay: Drought curbs economic growth  

    The decline in activity was caused by a weaker agriculture performance.

  • Macro Scenario - Uruguay: Moderating economic growth  

    Leading indicators suggest weak GDP growth in 1Q19.

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy decision: On-hold; statement’s tone remained hawkish  

    The balance of risks for inflation continues to be tilted to the upside.

  • PERU – Economic activity weakened in 1Q19  

    Economic activity in 1Q19 was dragged by fishing and construction output

  • COLOMBIA – Activity recovery stalls in 1Q19  

    We expect activity to improve from last year, but downside risks to our outlook are rising

  • ARGENTINA – April headline inflation eased more than expected  

    Inflation is expected to continue falling in May.

  • COLOMBIA – Activity indicators upbeat in the 1Q19  

    Robust sector indicators and strong imports of capital goods are consistent with GDP growth of 3.4% in 1Q19.

  • COLOMBIA – Wide trade deficit in 1Q19  

    Weaker global economy and some internal demand recovery would prevent a correction of external accounts.

  • CHILE - Monetary Policy Meeting: The waiting game  

    Raising global tensions may be motivating additional caution within the board.

  • PERU – Monetary Policy Decision: Hikes this year becoming less likely  

    Trade wars on BCRP radar again.

  • MEXICO – Industrial production remained weak in 1Q19  

    Manufacturing output decelerated on an annual basis

  • MEXICO – Core inflation accelerated in April, pressured by a Easter effect  

    The Easter effect partially faded away in the 2H of April

  • CHILE – Low and stable inflation in April  

    Contained inflationary pressures and sluggish activity justify stable rates

  • CHILE – Trade surplus narrows in April  

    The composition of imports partly mitigates external vulnerabilities

  • MEXICO – Gross fixed investment improved at the margin  

    Uncertainty over the direction of domestic policy and the approval of the USMCA will continue to weigh on investment outlook

  • COLOMBIA – Food drives inflation surprise again  

    We expect inflation to end the year at 3.0% target, however, there are upside risks

  • CHILE – Widespread activity slowdown in 1Q19  

    Moderating business and consumer confidence amid elevated global risks pose a growing risk to our 2019 growth scenario

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Stable rates in line with slow activity recovery and wel  

    The ongoing, but slow, activity recovery is concerning some board members.

  • CHILE – Consumption slows in 1Q19  

    Despite low inflation and an expansionary monetary policy, private consumption related activity is weakening

  • MEXICO – 1Q19 fiscal balance helped by lower expenditures  

    Lower oil production and weak growth are the main risks to public finances

  • PERU – Inflation accelerated in April  

    CPI was driven by an increase in prices of bus transportation, tourism related services and seafood due to Easter holidays

  • MEXICO – Weak GDP flash estimate in the 1Q19  

    On an annual basis, Industrial sector contracted, while services sectors moderated its pace

  • COLOMBIA – Unemployment rate increases further, despite stronger job creation  

    While there are some positives, the labor market remains weak

  • CHILE – Industrial production shrinks in 1Q19  

    Despite weak industrial activity, the investment outlook remains positive.

  • ARGENTINA – Output recovery continued in February  

    The risks to our base-case economic scenario for 2019 are high.

  • CHILE – Employment growth accelerates at the start of the year  

    In an environment of low inflation and expansionary monetary policy, we expect employment to improve gradually

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP decelerated in February  

    Industrial and services sectors slowed down

  • MEXICO – Trade deficit narrows at the margin  

    Manufacturing exports and non-oil imports improved at the margin, but grew at a soft pace

  • Social Security reform item by item: impacts and dilutions  

    Reform is essential to fiscal rebalancing

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable rates, but BoP sneaks into the discussion  

    Additional widening in the CAD or tightening of financial conditions could change the mood in the board

  • MEXICO – Retail sales momentum remained soft in February  

    Higher real wages are a buffer for private consumption

  • MEXICO – CPI surprised to the upside in the first half of April  

    CPI was pressured by an increase in prices of tourism related services and airfares due to Easter holidays

  • ARGENTINA – Stronger-than-expected trade surplus in March  

    Weak activity and currency lead to a rapid adjustment.

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal consolidation in 1Q19 meets target  

    We note an upward risk to our forecast of a deficit of 0.5% of GDP

  • COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widened further in February  

    Still weak energy exports is offsetting the moderation in imports.

  • Macro Scenario - Paraguay: Cutting the interest rate  

    Low inflation allowed monetary-policy easing

  • Macro Scenario - Uruguay: Lower growth and rising inflation  

    Inflation remains above the target range.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation strongly surprises to the upside, triggering changes in the exchange rate poli  

    The bar for foreign exchange sales by the central bank is now lower

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: The brakes are on  

    The central bank has gone fully neutral

  • PERU – Economic activity remained soft in February  

    Fishing, construction and metallic mining output were the main drags to economic activity

  • PERU – Monetary Policy Decision: BCRP remains on hold  

    April’s communique tone remained practically unchanged compared to last month statement

  • MEXICO – Industrial production momentum still weak  

    Manufacturing sector fell on a quarter-over-quarter basis

  • MEXICO – Banxico Minutes: Most board members still worried with the inflation outlook  

    However, deputy governor Esquivel advocated for a more neutral tone in the policy statement.

  • MEXICO – On an annual basis, March’s headline inflation accelerated somewhat pressured by energy pri  

    Core inflation remained practically unchanged compared to last month

  • MEXICO – GFI remained weak, while private consumption grew at a below trend pace in the quarter ende  

    We expect economic activity to slow to 1.4% in 2019 (from 2018: 2.0%)

  • CHILE – Imports slow in 1Q19  

    Weakening industrial export dynamics reflect the slowing global economy

  • COLOMBIA – Transitory inflation pick-up in March  

    As the food price uptick passes, inflation would return towards the 3% target.

  • CHILE – Upside inflation surprise in March  

    A moderation in downside inflationary pressures is in line with the view that low inflation is transitory

  • CHILE – Sluggish activity in February  

    Mining activity was affected by transitory factors

  • CHILE – Weak retail in February, but investment indicators still strong  

    Low rates and a prolonged period of mild inflation would aid retail dynamism going forward.

  • PERU – Headline and core inflation accelerated in March  

    CPI was pressured by seasonality in prices from vegetables and legumes and education services

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: Comfortably on-hold  

    We believe that the central bank will remain on hold for the time being and move closer to neutral rates only later this year.

  • CHILE – Inflation Report: Low inflation requires low rates for longer  

    Arrival to neutral rate delayed to 1H21.

  • COLOMBIA – Improving labor market signs in February  

    Rising participation partly explains the sharp unemployment rate rise.

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Following the global liquidity tide  

    Stable rates for most of this year is the likely base case scenario

  • ARGENTINA – Signs of output stabilization  

    In year-over-year terms, activity fell by 5.7%, slightly better than the market consensus expectations

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy decision: On-hold, as expected; without a significant change in tone  

    The balance of risks for inflation continues to be tilted to the upside.

  • MEXICO – Trade deficit narrowed in February, with both exports and imports contracting  

    Deceleration in manufacturing exports and non-oil imports reflects some weakness in February’s economic activity.

  • ARGENTINA – Sharp adjustment of current account in 4Q18  

    The rapid adjustment of the current account deficit is ongoing.

  • MEXICO – Weak retails sales in January  

    The deceleration of retail sales will be curbed by higher real wages

  • ARGENTINA – Another strong trade surplus in February  

    Export growth was driven by non-agricultural products

  • MEXICO – Monthly GDP remained weak in January  

    Manufacturing and services sectors grew at a below trend rate

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: No rate moves in sight  

    We only expect a rate hike by the end of the year

  • MEXICO – CPI was below market expectations, with core inflation gradually decelerating  

    Annual inflation continues within the range around central bank’s target

  • MEXICO – Domestic demand weakened in 4Q18  

    Public and private demand decelerated on an annual basis

  • ARGENTINA – GDP fell 2.5% in 2018  

    We project a GDP contraction of 1.2% for this year.

  • Macro Scenario - Paraguay: The economy slows down  

    We adjusted our 2019 GDP growth forecast to 3.5%, down from 4% previously

  • COLOMBIA – A large trade deficit in January  

    A wide-current account deficit mean risks are tilted towards some weakening of the Colombian peso

  • Macro Scenario - Uruguay: 2018 consolidated fiscal deficit is revised upward  

    We note that the deficit includes extraordinary revenues of 1.4% of GDP related to the “over 50” law

  • CHILE – A sharp widening of the current account deficit in 2018  

    As domestic demand continues to expand at a decent pace, we expect the current account deficit to remain wide

  • CHILE – Activity rebounded in 4Q18, led by investment  

    Data in line with the central bank’s narrative

  • PERU – Fishing output and construction sector were the main drags to economic activity  

    Fishing output and construction sector were the main drags to economic activity

  • ARGENTINA – Fiscal consolidation driven by expenditure controls  

    Treasury once again registered a primary surplus in February.

  • COLOMBIA – A mixed activity bag to start the year  

    With activity indicators continuing to point at GDP growth below potential, stable rates is likely to persist for some time.

  • ARGENTINA – Inflation Above Expectations Once Again in February  

    Adjustments in regulated prices as well as the depreciation of the ARS are likely to keep inflation high in March

  • MEXICO – Industrial production remained weak in January  

    Risks to economic activity are tilted to the downside

  • MEXICO – Internal demand weakened in the 4Q18  

    Uncertainty weights on GFI

  • CHILE – Inflation below expectations in February  

    We have revised our yearend call for inflation to 2.6%.

  • PERU – Monetary Policy Decision: BCRP remains on hold  

    The BCRP sees non-primary economic activity still showing signs of dynamism

  • CHILE – Weak mining restricts trade surplus in February  

    As the domestic demand recovery consolidates and growth of trade partners moderates, a mild widening of the CAD is expected

  • MEXICO – February CPI decelerated, with core inflation falling slowly  

    Lower non-core food prices exerted downward pressure

  • COLOMBIA – Lower-than-expected inflation in February  

    Following two consecutive months of downside surprises, inflation is likely to end the year close to the 3% target

  • CHILE – Mining drags activity down in January  

    The positive evolvement of non-mining activity bodes well for the expected recovery.

  • CHILE – Car sales drag retail down in January  

    Wholesale trade bodes well or the investment recovery

  • COLOMBIA – Employment dynamics continued to deteriorate in January  

    Weak labor market numbers reinforce our view that interest rate hikes remain afar

  • PERU – February’s inflation was below market expectations  

    At the margin Headline CPI slowed down, while core inflation remained practically unchanged

  • COLOMBIA – Current account deficit widens in 2018 and financing is a concern  

    The rising CAD could play a more meaningful role on monetary policy decisions ahead

  • CHILE – Manufacturing surprises to the upside in January  

    Recovering sentiment and improving copper prices point to favorable activity dynamics in the short term

  • COLOMBIA – Gradual activity recovery in line with stable rates  

    In 2018, consumption picked up, while gross fixed investment slowed and exports moderated

  • CHILE – Waiting for the labor market recovery  

    Some tightening of the labor market is expected this year as it benefits from the lengthy activity recovery

  • MEXICO – 4Q18 Inflation Report: no rate cuts in sight, despite lower growth forecasts  

    Balance of risk for inflation remains tilted to the upside

  • ARGENTINA – Economic Activity Fell by 2.6% in 2018  

    We revised our GDP growth forecast for this year downward.

  • MEXICO – Trade deficit narrowed between December and January, with both exports and imports improvin  

    At the margin, manufacturing exports and non-oil imports improved somewhat

  • MEXICO – Weak consumption in December  

    Weakness in retail sales is partly due to the recent moderation in labor market indicators

  • MEXICO – Current account deficit (CAD) remained narrow in 2018  

    Net FDI was enough to fully cover the CAD in 2018

  • MEXICO – GDP weakened in 4Q18  

    Risks to economic activity are tilted to the downside

  • MEXICO – Annual inflation falls within the range around central bank’s target  

    Non-core food items was the main downward pressure for the CPI

  • PERU – Domestic demand improved in 2018, amid solid fiscal and external fundamentals  

    Nominal fiscal deficit improved more than expected by the Ministry of Finance

  • MEXICO – Monetary Policy Minutes: no rate cuts in the horizon, but divisions within the board are...  

    Most members considered PEMEX financial situation as a risk for macroeconomic conditions

  • ARGENTINA – First step toward meeting a tough fiscal target  

    We estimated that the 12-month rolling primary deficit as of January totaled 2.6% of GDP, down from the 2.7% in December 2018

  • ARGENTINA – Adjustment of External Accounts Continued in January  

    We forecast a significant narrowing of the current account deficit this year.

  • PERU – Economic activity accelerated in the 4Q18  

    Fishing output and construction were the main drivers during the 4Q18

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes: An even more gradual tightening cycle  

    We still see space for the normalization process to continue in 2H19, but risks are tilted to fewer hikes.

  • Evening Edition – Social Security Secretary signals ambitious pension reform in Brazil  

    The President approved setting a minimum retirement age of 65 for men and 62 for women, with a transition in 12 years.

  • COLOMBIA – Trade deficit widens in 2018  

    The trade deficit widened to USD7.1 billion in 2018 (from USD6.1billion in 2017), ending two years of corrections.

  • ARGENTINA – High inflation despite a favorable currency  

    Food prices drove core inflation up.

  • COLOMBIA – Mixed activity in December  

    We expect an activity pick-up this year to 3.3% (2.6% in 2018), aided by a mildly expansionary monetary policy.

  • Macro Scenario - Uruguay: Fiscal deficit remains wide in 2018  

    The fiscal deficit closed 2018 at 2.7% of GDP, down from 3.5% in 2017

  • Macro Scenario - Paraguay: Inflation is receding  

    Consumer prices remained stable in January and annual inflation slowed to 2.4%

  • MEXICO – Weak industrial production in the 4Q18  

    Mining, construction and manufacturing sectors decelerated

  • CHILE – Low January inflation to motivate patience at the central bank  

    Moderate inflationary pressures are in line with stable rates for the time being.

  • PERU – Monetary Policy Decision: BCRP remains on hold as expected  

    BCRP is positive on economic activity, while sees diminished external risks for inflation

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Minutes - A neutral tone  

    We believe that the central bank will maintain its holding pattern for the time being and begin a modest hiking cycle only in 2H19

  • MEXICO – Internal demand weakens at the margin  

    Downside risk to GFI are high

  • MEXICO – Monetary policy decision: On-hold, as expected. Rate moves are unlikely anytime soon  

    We now expect the central bank to keep the policy rate unchanged throughout this year

  • MEXICO – January CPI decelerated by more than expected in January  

    Lower energy prices and VAT in the northern frontier exerted downward pressure

  • CHILE – Trade balance improves at the margin in January  

    We expect the current account deficit to remain broadly stable from last year, contained by low oil prices

  • COLOMBIA – Low inflation at the beginning of the year  

    Food price normalization and the gradual activity recovery would lift inflation during the year

  • CHILE – Weaker-than-expected December activity, but an overall positive 2018  

    Weak momentum at the end of last year led us to revise our growth forecast to 3.2% for 2019 (from 3.5%)

  • CHILE – Favorable signals in 4Q18  

    Improving private sentiment and strong investment signals likely mean the gradual monetary normalization advances this year

  • PERU – January’s inflation fell slightly  

    Food and gasoline inflation dragged headline CPI on annual basis

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: No surprise as rates remain stable  

    Maintaining monetary stimulus is likely until there is clear evidence that spare capacity is diminishing

  • COLOMBIA – Job destruction in 4Q18  

    Our expected activity recovery this year in part depends on a labor market recovery

  • CHILE – Salaried jobs drove employment growth in 2018  

    Some tightening of the labor market is expected this year

  • MEXICO – Public finance indicators reflect the final year of fiscal consolidation of the last admini  

    Looking forward, 2019 Budget execution is a risk

  • CHILE – Industrial activity recovery in 4Q18  

    We expect the monthly GDP proxy to grow around 3.5% yoy in December

  • MEXICO – GDP flash estimate was below market expectation in 4Q18  

    Industrial sector was the main drag to economic activity

  • CHILE – Monetary Policy Meeting: Toning down the bias  

    We expect a gradual normalization cycle, with risks tilted to fewer hikes

  • MEXICO – Trade deficit deteriorated in 2018  

    At the margin, manufacturing exports weakened

  • MEXICO – Economic activity was above market expectations in November  

    Still, the economy slowed on an annual basis

  • MEXICO – 1H January biweekly inflation below market expectations  

    Lower VAT in the northern frontier and lower energy prices helped to bring inflation down

  • COLOMBIA – Strong imports lead to large trade deficit in November  

    Export data is yet to fully reflect the recent oil price moderation

  • ARGENTINA – Trade surplus remained wide in December  

    We expect a current account deficit of 1.2% of GDP in 2019.

  • ARGENTINA – Treasury meets fiscal deficit target in 2018  

    The risk of a larger primary deficit in 2019 than that targeted (0% of GDP) is high.

  • COLOMBIA – Strong activity in November  

    Low oil prices and slowing growth for major trade partners are headwinds to the recovery process

  • Macro Scenario - Paraguay: Lower economic growth but still solid  

    Weather factors hindered activity in 3Q18.

  • Macro Scenario - Uruguay: Inflation above the target range  

    A weaker currency and a hike in food prices explain most of the increase in the year

  • ARGENTINA – Downward trend in inflation continued in December, but level is still high  

    Existing inertia poses a major challenge to faster disinflation.

  • PERU – Economic activity was above market expectations in November  

    Fishing output and construction supported economic activity in November

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