Itaú BBA - Evening Edition – First coronavirus cases confirmed in Argentina and Chile

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Evening Edition – First coronavirus cases confirmed in Argentina and Chile

Março 3, 2020

Before today, the only coronavirus cases in the region were in Brazil

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Argentina and Chile confirmed their first coronavirus cases. According to local news, in both cases, the patients probably had exposure to the virus abroad, as they traveled to regions with high contagion rates. The first, from Argentina, traveled to Italy, while the second spent one month in southern Asia. Before today, the only coronavirus cases in the region were in Brazil.

Brazil

Tomorrow’s Agenda: The 4Q19 GDP will be released tomorrow at 9:00 AM (SP time), for which we forecast a 0.5% qoq/sa growth. From the supply standpoint, service sector and agriculture are expected to contribute positively, while industrial production recedes. On the demand side, we expect consumption to expand and investment to contract. 
 

Colombia

The current account deficit widened to 4.3% last year, up 0.4pp from 2018, the largest deficit since 2015. Recovering internal demand amid lower oil prices led to a sharp widening of the trade balance deficit last year. A USD 3.5 billion deficit was recorded in the final quarter of 2019, somewhat narrower than the USD 0.2 billion posted one year before. However, at the margin, our seasonal adjustment shows that the deficit widened to 4.8% of GDP in 4Q19, from 4.5% in 3Q19. The favorable FDI inflows to Colombia continue to allay possible central bank concerns that otherwise would inspire discussions of monetary policy tightening.  

The USD 0.2 billion narrowing of the CAD in 4Q19 came on the back of a rising transfer surplus, a shrinking income and services deficit and a milder rise of the trade deficit for goods. Compared to 4Q18, the trade deficit for goods was USD 0.2 billion larger, as the broadly stable double-digit fall of exports was countered by a notable weakening of imports (6.0% drop vs. a 5% rise in 3Q19. Foreign direct investment into Colombia increased by nearly USD 1.0 billion from 4Q18, while portfolio investment outflows reflect global and domestic uncertainty. Last year, FDI reached 4.5% of GDP, up from 3.5% in 2018. Net direct investment came in at 3.5% of GDP, an improvement from 1.9% in 2018 but still failing to fully fund the current account deficit. ** Full Story here.



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