Itaú BBA - Latam Talking Points
  • Stable rates in Chile, for now  

    Looking forward, we expect the policy rate to reach 2.0% by yearend, with the next cut likely in September. 

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Chile, for now  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Evening Edition – Monetary policy decision to be announced tonight in Chile  

    We expect stable rates at this meeting

  • Consumer confidence deteriorates further in Colombia  

    Pessimism has reigned for consumers in 9 of the last 10 months.

  • Evening Edition – Consumer confidence deteriorates further in Colombia  

    Pessimism has reigned for consumers in 9 of the last 10 months.

  • Inflation continues to decelerate in Argentina  

    Moderate disinflation will likely continue in July.

  • Monthly GDP indicators expand in Brazil  

    Both BCB and Itaú's monthly GDP indicators increased in May.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation continues to decelerate in Argentina  

    Consumer prices decelerated for the third consecutive month in June.

  • Evening Edition – Monthly GDP index expands in Brazil  

    Both BCB and Itaú's monthly GDP increased in May.

  • Brazilian Lower House finishes first vote with a BRL 865 bn reform  

    Now, the second round of voting is very likely to take place only in August.

  • Brazilian Lower House still voting on amendments to the pension reform  

    On Wednesday, the House concluded the first round of voting on the base text, with 379 votes in favor and 131 against the proposal.

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected service sector revenues in Brazil  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Lower House still voting on amendments to the pension reform  

    Last night, the House concluded the first round of voting on the base text, with 379 votes in favor and 131 against the proposal.

  • Brazilian Lower House approves the main text of the pension reform  

    The plenary started to analyze the highlights, and, possibly later this week, will move on to the second round of voting

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Lower House may vote the pension reform in the next hours  

    The Lower House is currently analyzing the requirements and, once this step is completed, the plenary will be able to vote the main text.

  • Lower House approaches pension reform vote in Brazil  

    According to local news, the Lower House is set to begin in the next hours the first round of voting on the pension reform.

  • Weak activity in Chile  

    Downbeat private sentiment amid an uncertain global scenario justify our 2.4% growth call for this year.

  • Evening Edition – Low inflation in Chile  

    Given our outlook of a growth slowdown this year, we do not expect a notable acceleration of inflation.

  • Evening Edition – Weak activity in Chile  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Pension reform approved at the Special Committe in Brazil  

    The Lower House will probably start to analyze the proposal on Tuesday

  • Waiting for the pension reform vote in Brazil  

    It will be important to monitor how these steps will evolve, in order to gauge the timing of the first Lower House floor vote.

  • Evening Edition – Special committee starts to vote on the pension reform in Brazil  

    The committee is now voting on the amendments, which might be concluded today

  • Industrial production declines in Brazil  

    After this result, our GDP tracking for 2Q19 increased slightly, to 0.3% qoq/sa (from 0.2% previously)

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales temporary boost in Chile  

    For 2019, we see GDP growth of 2.4%, down from 4% in 2018

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production declines in Brazil  

    Industrial production declined 0.2% mom/sa in May.

  • Industrial production to be released in Brazil  

    We forecast a 0.6% decline on seasonally adjusted terms.

  • Evening Edition – Interest rate expectations continue to fall in Brazil  

    The median of the Selic rate expectations declined to 5.50%, from 5.75%.

  • Unemployment rate declines in Brazil  

    Seasonally adjusted, the unemployment rate slid 0.1 p.p. to 11.8%.

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment rate declines in Brazil  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Service sector confidence rebounds in Brazil  

    This result goes in line with the rebound also registered in the consumer, retail and construction confidence indicators in the period.

  • Evening Edition – Job creation below expectations in Brazil  

    The 3-month moving average decreased to 13k, from 26k in the previous month.

  • Industrial confidence declines in Brazil  

    The print is broadly in line with the preview released last week, in which industrial confidence fell 1.4 p.p.

  • Evening Edition – Output rebounds in Argentina  

    The risks are still tilted to the downside, given ongoing adjustments and uncertainties regarding the outcome of the upcoming presidential election

  • Confidence indicators rebound in Brazil  

    Both retail and construction confidence indicators registered increases in June.

  • Evening Edition – Copom minutes: easing ahead in Brazil, probably  

    The minutes reinforce our call that the Copom will resume easing in July, conditional on concrete progress in the reform front.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside in April  

    The solid real wage bill growth has been a buffer for private consumption

  • Consumer confidence increases in Brazil  

    This increase interrups a series of four consecutive drops

  • Evening Edition – Activity remains weak in Mexico  

    We expect economic activity to decelerate to 1.0% in 2019, from 2.0% in 2018.

  • BCB ready to resume easing, conditional on reform  

    We will learn more about the authorities´ views with the release of the meeting minutes at 08:00 AM on Tuesday, June 25

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Colombia  

    In our view, a widening output gap (we see growth at 2.6% this year) and controlled inflation would likely lead the central bank to cut rates

  • Copom meeting to take center stage in Brazil  

    We believe that the Copom will maintain the Selic rate stable at 6.5% per year

  • Evening Edition – Brazil's Copom is ready to resume easing, conditional on reform approval  

    The Copom decision to leave the base rate unchanged at 6.5% pa was widely anticipated.

  • Survey participants expect rate cuts in Brazil later this year  

    The year-end Selic rate for 2019 declined 75 bps to 5.75%

  • Evening Edition – Copom meeting to take center stage in Brazil tomorrow  

    We believe that the Copom will maintain the Selic rate stable at 6.5% per year.

  • Evening Edition – Market expects rate cuts in Brazil later this year  

    According to the Focus survey, the median of Selic rate expectations declined 75 bps from its current level.

  • Economic activity falls further in Brazil  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Pension reform report presented at the Lower House in Brazil  

    Considering the report, we estimate fiscal savings of BRL 930 bln in 10 years

  • Evening Edition – Activity falls further in Brazil  

    Compared to the same month of 2018, the index declined 0.6%.

  • All eyes on the pension reform report in Brazil  

    The rapporteur Samuel Moreira is expected to present the full report to the Lower House Special Committee today, at 9:30 AM

  • Evening Edition – Pension reform’s report presented at the Lower House in Brazil  

    According to the rapporteur, the fiscal impact estimate of the proposal after the changes amounts to BRL 913 bn in the next ten years.

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales below expectations in Brazil  

    Broad retail sales remained stable (seasonally-adjusted) in April, weaker than market expectations and our forecast.

  • Weak industrial production in Mexico  

    At the margin, industrial production improved, but momentum remained moderate.

  • Additional details on the surprising rate cut in Chile  

    The board’s working assumption going forward is for stable rates for the following quarters

  • Evening Edition – Soft industrial production in Mexico  

    At the margin, industrial production improved, but momentum remained moderate.

  • Surprising rate cut in Chile  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Evening Edition – Additional details on the surprising rate cut in Chile  

    Elements justifying the largest rate cut in a decade include the activity outlook downgrade, higher potential growth and lower estimated neutral rate.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation decelerates in Brazil  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Lower-than-expected fixed investment in Mexico  

    Weak public investment, associated to a transition effect between administrations, will probably affect construction investment in the short-term

  • Activity growth remains below potential in Chile  

    Activity in the primary sector is expected to improve ahead but we see clear downside risks to our 3% growth outlook.

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected fixed investment in Mexico  

    According to calendar adjusted figures, gross fixed investment fell sharply in March.

  • Industrial production remains weak in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecast for May’s industrial production is a 2% mom/sa decline

  • Evening Edition – Activity growth remains below potential in Chile  

    The monthly GDP proxy (Imacec) increased 2.1% yoy in April, in line with market consensus and a tick above our 1.9% call.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production remains weak in Brazil  

    The 3-month moving average rate with seasonal adjustment declined 0.1%.

  • Retail sales decelerate in Chile  

    The increasingly complex external scenario is resulting in growing domestic uncertainty.

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales decelerate in Chile  

    Retail sales (including vehicles) fell 0.8% over twelve months in the period, below the market consensus (-0.6%) and our forecast (-0.3%).

  • Unemployment remains high in Brazil  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Brazil’s GDP shrank in the first quarter  

    For 2Q19, our preliminary forecast is a modest GDP growth of 0.1% qoq/sa.

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment remains high in Brazil  

    The national unemployment rate reached 12.5% in April.

  • Brazil’s GDP to be released today  

    We forecast a 0.2% qoq/sa decline, leading to 0.4% growth in year-over-year terms

  • Evening Edition – GDP shrinks at the margin in Brazil  

    GDP declined 0.2% qoq/sa in 1Q19.

  • Service sector confidence decreases in Brazil  

    Confidence across all sectors decreased in the month, which indicate no substantial acceleration in economic activity ahead

  • Evening Edition – New loans decelerate in Brazil  

    The NPL ratio remained unchanged at 4.7% for consumers and declined to 2.7% for businesses (from 2.8%).

  • Industrial confidence declines in Brazil  

    Data released so far for 2Q19 indicate no substantial acceleration in economic activity ahead, after a disappointing 1Q19.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence declines in Brazil  

    Data released so far for 2Q19 indicate no substantial acceleration in economic activity ahead, after a disappointing 1Q19.

  • Construction confidence falls further in Brazil  

    The negative result was driven both by the expectation and current situation components.

  • Evening Edition – Monetary policy board discusses all options in Chile  

    Although all members agreed to maintain the rates stable at 3%, several stated that a neutral stance justified discussing all possibilities.

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected job creation in Brazil  

    Using our seasonal adjustment, formal job creation increased to 50k in April.

  • Confidence indicators fall further in Brazil  

    Declines were observed in industrial, consumer and now retail confidence indicators.

  • Consumer confidence falls in Brazil  

    The decline was driven by drops both in the expectations and current situation components.

  • Evening Edition – Core inflation decelerates in Mexico  

    Core CPI came in at 0.09% (from 0.13% a year ago), pressured by tradable prices, while core services decelerated.

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales decelerate in Mexico  

    Using calendar-adjusted data, retail sales grew at a slower pace in March.

  • Waiting for data releases  

    Activity and confidence indicators in several countries from Latam will be published today, adding to the expenditure report in Brazil.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence decreases in Brazil  

    Activity data released so far for 2Q19 indicate no substantial acceleration in economic activity.

  • Industrial confidence decreases in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows a drop both in current conditions and expectations components.

  • Evening Edition – Weak activity start in Chile  

    Depressed private sentiment and a slowing global economy mean Chile’s growth risks are tilted to the downside.

  • Consumer confidence returns to pessimistic levels in Colombia  

    Despite the negative print, part of the worsening of consumer confidence could be transitory.

  • Stable rates in Mexico  

    The Board sees the recent high in inflation as transitory, and believes its policy stance is consistent with the convergence of inflation to its target.

  • Evening Edition – Consumer confidence returns to pessimistic levels in Colombia  

    The print was likely influenced by the weaker Colombian peso and protests that affected transportation routes and led to higher inflation.

  • Brazil’s monthly GDP declines in March  

    The result marked the third consecutive monthly decline, leading the indicator to decrease 0.7% on a quarterly basis.

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Mexico  

    The Board recognizes the recent acceleration in inflation as transitory and see inflation converging toward its target with current rate levels.

  • Evening Edition – Economic activity drops further in Brazil  

    According to BCB, the monthly GDP proxy index (IBC-Br) decreased 0.3% mom/sa in March.

  • Activity indicators fall further in Brazil  

    Both our monthly GDP proxy (PM-Itaú) and service sector revenues (PMS) declined in March.

  • Copom minutes: On sufficient conditions  

    The committee indicates that, while 1Q19's GDP may well have a negative print, activity is likely to rebound after the pension reform.

  • Evening Edition – Copom minutes: Selic rate still at comfortable level  

    The minutes suggest the Copom is still comfortable with the level of the Selic rate, but we expect the BCB to cut rates again in September.

  • Evening Edition – Copom minutes to be released tomorrow in Brazil  

    Our LatAm Macro Monthly report was published today, featuring scenarios for Latam economies, the global scenario and commodities.

  • Core inflation remains well behaved in Brazil  

    Despite some monthly upward pressure in the core services component, core inflation remains in comfortable levels.

  • Evening Edition – Core inflation remains well behaved in Brazil  

    Despite some monthly upward pressure in the core services component, core inflation remains in comfortable levels.

  • Retail sales below expectations in Brazil  

    The print reinforces our view of weak GDP growth in 1Q19.

  • BCB acknowledges a weaker economy, but signals no imminent reaction  

    We’ll learn more about their thinking with the release of the minutes on Tuesday, May 14 at 08:00 AM.

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales below expectations in Brazil  

    For the time being, we anticipate seasonally-adjusted declines in both retail sales indicators in April

  • Gross fixed investment improved at the margin in Mexico  

    Uncertainty over the direction of domestic policy and the approval of the USMCA by the U.S. Congress will continue to weigh on investment in the short-term

  • Evening Edition – BCB acknowledges a weaker economy, but signals no imminent reaction  

    We’ll learn more about their thinking with the release of the minutes on Tuesday, May 14 at 08:00 AM

  • Stable rates in line with slow activity recovery and well-behaved inflation in Colombia  

    We believe that the central bank will remain on hold throughout the year

  • Evening Edition – Gross fixed investment improved at the margin in Mexico  

    Gross fixed investment came in above expectations in February.

  • Evening Edition – Widespread activity slowdown in Chile  

    Activity in the first quarter of 2019 grew at its slowest pace since 2Q17.

  • Busy week in Brazil, with Copom, inflation and activity data  

    We expect the Copom to maintain the Selic rate at 6.50% in its next monetary policy meeting.

  • Busy week in Brazil, with Copom, inflation and activity data  

    We expect the Copom to maintain the Selic rate at 6.50% in its next monetary policy meeting.

  • Vehicle sales slightly rise in Brazil  

    March's industrial production will also be released today.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production surprises to the downside in Brazil  

    Next week, Copom, inflation and activity data on focus.

  • Activity recovery continues in Argentina  

    The EMAE (official monthly GDP proxy) printed the third consecutive increase in February.

  • Evening Edition – Vehicle sales rise slightly in Brazil  

    For April’s industrial production, our preliminary forecast points to a 0.9% mom/sa decline.

  • Confidence indicators decrease again in Brazil  

    With these results, the week was marked by weak results in confidence indicators among broadly all sectors.

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment recedes slightly in Brazil  

    Despite the improvement, the indicators still reflect a slow-paced recovery of the labor market in the first quarter of the year.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence slightly increases in Brazil  

    Despite the increase, the level of industrial business confidence remains low, pointing to stagnation of industrial production going forward.

  • Industrial confidence slightly increases in Brazil  

    While still timid, the advance is better than the sideway movements registered in other sectors in the same period.

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Colombia  

    Additional widening in the CAD or tightening of financial conditions could change the mood in the board.

  • Confidence indicators remain in pessimistic ground in Brazil  

    Confidence in the retail and construction sectors moved sideways in April.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation came in slightly above expectations in Brazil  

    The industrial prices component surprised to the upside

  • Brazil’s government approval rate remained broadly stable in April  

    The poll surveyed 2000 participants between April 12th and 15th.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s government approval rate remains broadly stable in April  

    The poll surveyed 2000 participants between April 12th and 15th.

  • Brazil’s lawmakers approve the pension reform report at the Constitutional and Justice Committee  

    The proposal will now head to a Special Committee at the Lower House, yet to be created.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s Constitutional and Justice Committee to vote the pension reform tonight  

    If the proposal is approved, it will then be evaluated by a Special Commission at the Lower House, yet to be created.

  • Weaker-than-expected activity in Colombia  

    At the margin, activity lost momentum, expanding a mild 1.0% qoq/saar, below the 3.1% recorded in 4Q18.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence still weak in Brazil  

    If this trend of confidence indicators moving sideways continues, it will indicate a formal job creation (CAGED) of around 20k in April.

  • Industrial confidence still weak in Brazil  

    If this trend of confidence indicators moving sideways continues in other sectors, this will indicate a formal job creation (CAGED) of around 20k in April.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation and job creation on focus next week in Brazil  

    April’s IPCA-15 mid-month inflation will be released on Thursday. We expect a 0.69% increase in the period.

  • Government to freeze regulated prices in Argentina  

    While the policy, in our view, will not have a material impact on the CPI, it signals the government’s concern in maintaining support for the October election.

  • Evening Edition – Government to freeze regulated prices in Argentina  

    Untamed inflation and the political cycle have led the government to adopt incomes policy.

  • Inflation surprises to the upside in Argentina  

    The political cycle and uncertainty about the outcome of the presidential elections is a obstacle to disinflation.

  • Monthly GDP reaffirms weak activity in Brazil  

    Additionally, the government presented its budgetary guidelines law (LDO) proposal for 2020 to Congress, in line with our call.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation strongly surprises to the upside in Argentina  

    Consumer prices rose 4.7% mom from February, above the 4.05% market consensus forecast.

  • We reduced Brazil´s GDP growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020  

    Our LatAm Macro Monthly report was published on Friday, featuring scenarios for Brazil, LaTam, the global economy and commodities.

  • Evening Edition – Monthly GDP reaffirms weak activity in Brazil  

    On a quarterly basis, the index decreased 0.2%.

  • Evening Edition – Services sector revenues drop in Brazil  

    Our GDP tracking for 1Q19 continues to point to a 0.1% qoq/sa decline.

  • Banxico minutes: Inflation outlook still concerns board members  

    We expect Banxico to deliver two 25-bp rate cuts in the last quarter of 2019.

  • March’s indicators reaffirm weak economic activity in Brazil  

    We estimate a 2.6% and 0.4% mom/sa decrease in ABPO and ABCR in the period.

  • Evening Edition – Banxico minutes: Inflation outlook still concerns  

    The minutes indicate that most board members are still worried with the inflation outlook.

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    Notwithstanding the elevated headline result for March, core inflation measures remain on a very comfortable path.

  • Retail sales still indicate weak activity recovery in Brazil  

    We forecast gains of 0.3% in core retail sales and 0.9% in broad retail sales for March.

  • Inflation surprises to the upside in Chile  

    Overall, the still-low inflation, looser policy stance by the Fed, and risks to global growth suggest there is no haste to remove stimulus in the near term.

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales still indicate weak activity recovery in Brazil  

    February’s core retail sales remained flat, while the broad index receded in the period.

  • Economic activity decelerates in Chile  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the upside in Chile  

    A moderation in downside inflationary pressures is in line with the view that low inflation is transitory

  • Evening Edition – Economic activity decelerates in Chile  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Industrial activity decelerates in Argentina  

    Indec also reported construction activity indicators for February.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial activity declines in Argentina  

    Industrial activity fell by 8.5% yoy in February 2019, marking its tenth consecutive drop.

  • Brazil´s president to meet with party leaders today  

    Bolsonaro will reportedly meet with six or more party leaders throughout the day.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil´s president to meet with party leaders tomorrow  

    It is important to watch the outcome of these meetings closely, to gauge the lawmaker's positions may evolve throughout the next weeks.

  • Sharp decline in mining and extraction impacts industrial production in Brazil  

    We now forecast a 0.1% mom/sa decrease for March’s industrial production

  • Low rates for longer in Chile  

    Chilean central bank is following the global liquidity tide, while also reacting to domestic issues that reflect a slower inflation convergence to the 3% target

  • Evening Edition – Sharp decline in mining and extraction impacts industrial production in Brazil  

    Quarterly moving average remained stable in February.

  • Evening Edition – Low rates for longer in Chile  

    Overall, the Chilean central bank is following the global liquidity tide and reacting to developments that reflect a slower inflation towards the 3% target.

  • Chile’s Monetary Policy Meeting: Following the global liquidity tide  

    Stable rates for most of this year is the likely base case scenario

  • Confidence indicators of all sectors drop in Brazil  

    The week was marked by a generalized drop in confidence among all sectors, reinforcing our view of weak growth in early 2019.

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment in Brazil remains broadly stable  

    The national unemployment rate reached 12.4% in February, in line with our call and 0.1 p.p. below the market’s.

  • Evening Edition – BCB Inflation Report: Forecasts still point to stable Selic rate in 2019  

    BCB released its 1Q19’s quarterly inflation report.

  • Consumer’s confidence falls in Brazil  

    Confidence fell among consumers of all income classes

  • Evening Edition – New loans increase in Brazil  

    Overall seasonally-adjusted delinquency remained virtually stable at 2.9%.

  • Brazil’s labor market continues to show a slow pace in early 2019  

    CAGED (formal job creation) registered a net creation of 173k jobs in February

  • Evening Edition – Copom Minutes: Waiting for clarity  

    We expect the Selic rate to remain stable at next meetings.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s labor market continues to show a slow pace in early 2019  

    CAGED registered a net creation of 173k jobs in February.

  • Colombia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: No rate moves in sight  

    We expect a central bank hike only by the end of the year

  • Evening Edition – Colombia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: No rate moves in sight  

    We only expect a rate hike by the end of the year

  • Argentina’s GDP falls 2.5% in 2018  

    Decelerating activity also led to higher unemployment in 4Q18.

  • Evening Edition - Argentina’s GDP falls 2.5% in 2018  

    We project a GDP contraction of 1.2% for this year.

  • Copom: symmetric risks, no rush to act  

    The committee now sees the balance of risks to inflation as symmetric

  • Selic rate to remain stable at today’s Copom meeting  

    We believe that the committee will keep the Selic rate stable at 6.5% p.a.

  • Evening Edition – Selic rate to remain stable at tomorrow’s Copom meeting  

    Inflation forecasts are anchored, in a context where the level of slack in the economy remains high.

  • Activity rebounds in Chile  

    For 2019, we see GDP growth moderating to 3.2%

  • January’s services revenues decline in Brazil  

    In year-over-year terms, the indicator came in at 2.1%

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected activity in Chile  

    For 2019, we see GDP growth moderating to 3.2%

  • Evening Edition – January’s services revenues decline in Brazil  

    Year-over-year, the index increased 3.6%

  • Retail sales above expectations in Brazil  

    Year-over-year, the index increased 1.9%, from 0.6% in the previous month

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales above expectations in Brazil  

    Year-over-year, the index increased 1.9%, from 0.6% in the previous month

  • Brazilian Lower House establishes the Constitutional and Justice Committee  

    The analysis by the CCJ is the first step towards approving the pension reform, presented by the government to Congress on February 20

  • February’s inflation slightly above consensus in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecast for the IPCA in March is 0.51%, with the year-over-year change picking up to 4.33%

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production reaffirms weak activity recovery in Brazil  

    Our preliminary estimate for February is a 1.4% increase at the margin

  • Evening Edition – February inflation in Brazil slightly above consensus  

    Our preliminary forecast for the IPCA in March is 0.51%, with the year-over-year change picking up to 4.33%.

  • Solid auto production in Brazil  

    Despite the strong increase in auto production, demand data remain weak, posting mixed results in February

  • Data reaffirm low inflationary pressure in Chile  

    The inflation rates will likely remain low this year

  • Evening Edition – Solid auto production in Brazil  

    Despite the strong increase in auto production, demand data remain weak for the month

  • Inflation decelerates in Mexico  

    We revised our yearend forecast for 2019 to 3.6%, due to recent downside surprises

  • Evening Edition – Data reaffirm low inflationary pressure in Chile  

    The inflation rates will likely remain low this year

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Colombia  

    With the result, inflation reached the central bank’s 3% target, further enhancing the case for stable rates for the time being

  • Evening Edition – Inflation decelerates in Mexico  

    We revised our yearend forecast for 2019 to 3.6%, due to recent downside surprises.

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Colombia  

    With the result, inflation reached the central bank’s 3% target, further enhancing the case for stable rates for the time being

  • Brazilian GDP growth confirms weak activity in 2018  

    Looking ahead, we expect GDP to grow 2.0% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020, assuming progress in reforms

  • Evening Edition – Central Bank tightens the monetary policy in Argentina  

    The decisions go in the right direction, given the deterioration of the inflation outlook and the proximity of the wage bargaining season

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian GDP growth confirms weak activity in 2018  

    We expect GDP to grow 2.0% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020, assuming reforms advance. Importantly, the earliest indicators for 1Q19 add downside to our call

  • Higher-than-expected unemployment rate in Brazil  

    We expect the unemployment rate to slide to 11.8% by year-end and to 11.5% by the end of 2020

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected unemployment rate in Brazil  

    We expect the unemployment rate to slide to 11.8% by year-end and to 11.5% by the end of 2020.

  • Campos Neto signals continuity at the BCB  

    His speech focused on creating a sense of continuity, praising both the work done by the current administration

  • Weaker-than-expected GDP growth in Mexico  

    We expect economic activity to slow to 1.7% this year, with risks tilted to the downside

  • Evening Edition – Campos Neto signals continuity at the BCB  

    His speech focused on creating a sense of continuity

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected GDP in Mexico  

    We expect economic activity to slow to 1.7% this year, with risks tilted to the downside

  • Fitch reaffirms Chile as ‘A’ rating and stable outlook  

    Fitch has kept Chile’s rating stable since the one notch downgrade implemented in August 2017

  • Evening Edition – Inflation falls within Banxico’s target range  

    We expect inflation to reach 3.8% for the end of this year.

  • Inflation virtually in line with expectations in Brazil  

    The education component posted the major positive monthly change

  • Brazilian pension reform proposal confirms minimum age and transition period  

    The reform will now be examined by the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) as well as special commissions

  • Evening Edition – Inflation virtually in line with expectations in Brazil  

    In year-over-year terms, the inflation registered a 3.73% change


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