Itaú BBA - Latam Talking Points
  • Evening Edition – New changes to monetary aggregate targets in Argentina  

    Higher-than-expected inflation due to the depreciation of the peso reduced the money supply, leading to an excessive monetary contraction.

  • BCB cuts 50 bps and signals further easing ahead  

    The statement indicates that another 50-bp “adjustment” of the base rate is likely in the October meeting.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil´s central bank continues the easing cycle with a 50-bp cut  

    We will publish an in-depth report on Copom’s decision later tonight.

  • BCB set to cut 50 bps tonight  

    The backdrop of a continued easing cycle has not changed significantly since the last policy decision, on July 31, when the Selic was cut by 50 bps.

  • Inflation and rates expectations decline further in Brazil  

    Additionally, Petrobras will not adjust fuel prices in the domestic market, despite oil prices soaring after the attacks in Saudi Arabia.

  • Evening Edition – Copom to take center stage in Brazil tomorrow  

    We expect the Copom to cut the Selic rate again, to 5.50%, at tomorrow's meeting.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation and rates expectations decline further in Brazil  

    The year-end Selic rate forecast declined 25 bps to 5.0% for 2020 amidst a sluggish economic recovery and benign inflation outlook.

  • Ambiguous activity data in Brazil  

    The economic recovery is still slow and relatively erratic.

  • Evening Edition – Monthly activity indicator retreats in Brazil  

    The weak BCB’s index goes against the stronger-than-expected increases registered in the retail and services indicators for the same period.

  • Stronger-than-expected service data in Brazil  

    The more important components for our GDP tracking declined in the month, but the drop was softer than previously expected.

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected service sector revenues in Brazil  

    The more important components for our GDP tracking declined in the month, but the drop was softer than previously expected

  • Stronger-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    Credit-linked sales continue to grow faster than income-sensitive ones, given the slow-paced employment recovery.

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    Credit-linked sales continue to grow faster than income-sensitive ones, given the slow-paced employment recovery.

  • Analysts expect further monetary easing in Chile  

    The change goes in line with our view that the global slowdown, along with disappointing domestic dynamism, justifies additional rate cuts.

  • Evening Edition – Analysts expect further easing in Chile  

    The change goes in line with our view that the global slowdown, along with disappointing domestic dynamism, justifies additional rate cuts.

  • Inflation decelerates in Mexico  

    Moderating inflation means higher odds of further monetary easing, likely already in September.

  • Inflation remains well behaved in Brazil  

    Lower food and transport prices offset the upward pressures stemming from changes in electricity tariff flag prices.

  • Activity accelerates slightly in Chile  

    Despite an expected improvement of growth pace data in 3Q19, activity remains structurally weak, paving the road for additional easing ahead.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation remains well behaved in Brazil  

    Lower food and transport prices offset the upward pressures stemming from changes in electricity tariff flag prices

  • Evening Edition – Activity improves at the margin but remains weak in Chile  

    Weak activity corroborates the central bank signaling that additional easing may be necessary to ensure inflation converges to the target

  • Brazil’s pension reform approved at the Senate’s Constitutional and Justice Committee  

    The text will now head to the Senate’s floor

  • Evening Edition – Pension reform base text approved at Senate’s Constitutional and Justice Committee  

    The committee is currently voting on the amendments and once the voting process is concluded, the text will head to the Senate’s floor.

  • Chilean central bank cuts rates by 50 bps  

    The press release communicating the decision holds an easing bias, so even further cuts could materialize ahead.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    July’s print showed no signs of recovery in the industrial sector, renewing expectations of a slow-paced activity recovery in the short term

  • Datafolha shows a decline in President Bolsonaro’s approval rate  

    29% consider his administration as “good” or “excellent”, somewhat lower than the 33% observed in the latest Datafolha poll, from July 4 and 5.

  • Argentina announces capital controls  

    President Macri signed an executive order on Sunday to implement controls, a couple days after the country announced a debt restructuring.

  • Evening Edition – Argentina announces capital controls  

    In our view, the room to avoid capital controls was very limited.

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment rate declines in Brazil  

    Going forward, we expect the unemployment rate — under our seasonal adjustment — to finish the year at 11.8%.

  • S&P downgrades Argentina to Selective Default  

    The administration is sending legislation to Congress to engage in a re-profiling of the remaining debt

  • Argentina takes the first step of sovereign debt restructuring  

    Economy Minister Lacunza announced a rescheduling of amortization payments of short-term local law bills denominated in pesos and in dollars

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected GDP in Brazil  

    Our GDP growth forecasts are 0.8% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020

  • Service confidence declines in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the decline was driven by the expectations component

  • Evening Edition – Service confidence declines in Brazil  

    The result went in the opposite direction of other business sectors and consumer sentiment indicators, which improved in the month.

  • Construction confidence increases in August  

    The capacity utilization for the sector advanced 0.7 p.p. (to 69.6%), the fifth consecutive increase

  • Evening Edition – BCB intervenes in the FX market  

    A plain sale of reserves to the market hadn’t took place since 2009.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence increases in Brazil  

    The installed capacity utilization level increased slightly to 75.8%, still suggesting a slack in production factors.

  • Industrial confidence increases in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows increases in both the current conditions (+1.2 p.p.) and the expectations component (+0.4 p.p.)

  • Retail confidence improves in Brazil  

    Retail confidence advanced 3.2 p.p. in August (to 98.7), the third consecutive increase.

  • Evening Edition – Retail sector confidence increases in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the movement was driven by the current conditions component

  • Consumer confidence improves in Brazil, but still at a weak level  

    Despite the increase, the index remain at a weak level.

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    For the time being, our full-year estimates for the IPCA are 3.6% for both 2019 and 2020

  • Argentina’s central bank to adopt measures to curb exchange rate volatility  

    Uncertainties regarding the ability of the federal government to service public debt will likely continue, with adverse consequences for the peso and inflation

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected retail sales in Mexico  

    Relative to 2018, we expect private consumption to moderate its pace in 2019

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence increases slightly in Brazil  

    This level of industrial business confidence is still low, consistent with a decline of 0.3% qoq/sa in industrial production.

  • Industrial confidence preview increases slightly in August  

    The breakdown shows an increase in both the current conditions and the expectations components.

  • Evening Edition – Investment recovery lifts 2Q19 activity in Chile  

    Overall, the economy continues to grow at a weak pace, hinting that demand-side inflationary pressures are low.

  • Fitch downgrades Argentina  

    Fitch downgraded Argentina's sovereign debt from B to CCC.

  • Easing cycle begins in Mexico  

    We now see the policy rate ending this year at 7.25%.

  • Evening Edition – Fitch downgrades Argentina  

    In the statement announcing the decision, the rating agency highlighted the uncertainty following the results of the primary elections.

  • Mixed activity data in Colombia  

    A meaningful activity acceleration in 2H19 remains elusive as consumer confidence stays low, the labor market weak and global growth slows.

  • Evening Edition – Easing cycle begins in Mexico  

    We now see the policy rate ending this year at 7.25%.

  • Evening Edition – Mixed activity data in Colombia  

    Activity came in mixed at the end of the second quarter, with retail sales remaining strong, while the manufacturing drag intensified.

  • Markets continue under pressure in Argentina  

    According to the press, the government will announce today a battery of measures to alleviate markets.

  • Evening Edition – Awaiting data releases in Colombia  

    Industrial production, retail sales and trade balance will be published at 12:00 AM.

  • Asset prices plummet in Argentina  

    The changes follow the presidential primary elections held on Sunday, which showed a very different outcome than anticipated by pollsters.

  • Alberto Fernández wins key primary vote in Argentina  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Evening Edition – Asset prices plummet in Argentina  

    Since Friday, the ARS weakened 23%, to 55.7 per USD. The interest rate paid on the 7-day Leliq rose to 74.8% from 63.7%, while the 5-year CDS hit 2,000 points.

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    Our forecasts remain at 3.6% for both 2019 and 2020.

  • Evening Edition – Service sector revenue drops sharply in Brazil  

    At the margin, the indicator declined 1.0% mom/sa, taking the 3-month moving average to -0.2%.

  • Brazilian Lower House approves pension reform with no further changes  

    The bill now heads to the Senate, where it will need to be approved by three-fifths majority in two rounds of voting once more.

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    Our forecasts remain at 3.6% for both 2019 and 2020.

  • Brazilian Lower House approves base text of pension reform  

    There were 370 votes in favor and 124 against the proposal, both somewhat below the numbers of the first vote on the bill.

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales disappoint market estimates in Brazil  

    Broad retail sales were flat (+0.0%) in the month, while core retail sales expanded 0.2% mom/sa, both below market expectations.

  • Evening Edition – BCB continues to signal a 50-bp cut in September  

    The document also brought a lengthy, and interesting, assessment of the effects of social security reform on neutral rates.

  • Monthly GDP proxy weaker-than-expected in Chile  

    Despite a more favorable base of comparison and added stimulus measures, sufficient headwinds would limit the recovery ahead

  • Chile: weak retail sales in June  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected activity in Chile  

    The non-mining GDP component posted its first monthly decline this year.

  • Industrial production declines in Brazil  

    The components more closely related to investment (construction inputs and capital goods) also receded in the month, with no signs of recovery.

  • Evening Edition – Weak consumption in Chile  

    Low private confidence, a volatile external scenario, contained copper prices, and a weak labor market have resulted in an activity slowdown.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production declines in Brazil  

    The components more closely related to investment also declined in the month, with no signs of recovery.

  • Copom: 50-bp cut, signaling another 50-bp adjustment ahead  

    The Copom reduced the interest rate by 0.50 pp and signaled an additional adjustment of the same magnitude at the next meeting.

  • Brazil´s central bank to start an easing cycle today  

    In our view, recent data are consistent with the start of a more intense easing cycle, with a 50-bp cut in the Selic rate.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil´s central bank starts an easing cycle with a 50-bp cut  

    Later tonight, we will publish a more in-depth report on the Copom’s decision.

  • Service confidence advances further in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the increase was driven both by the current conditions and the expectations component.

  • Evening Edition – Service confidence advances further in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the increase was driven both by the current conditions and the expectations component.

  • Drop in industrial confidence confirmed in Brazil  

    Despite the decline, the final indicator printed better than the preview released last week.

  • Evening Edition – Drop in industrial confidence confirmed in Brazil  

    Despite the decline, the final indicator printed better than the preview released last week, when industrial confidence fell by 1.7 p.p.

  • Evening Edition – Construction confidence advances in Brazil  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Construction confidence advances in Brazil  

    Confidence in the sector accelerated further from June, but remains at pessimistic levels.

  • Retail confidence increases in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows that the increase was driven both by the current conditions and the expectations component.

  • Evening Edition – Job creation above expectations in Brazil  

    Despite the acceleration, the current level of formal job creation is consistent with a still-timid 1.0% GDP growth, in year-over-year terms.

  • Evening Edition – New rules for FGTS withdrawals announced in Brazil  

    The Economic Policy Secretary, Adolfo Sachsida, stated that this measure may increase GDP by 0.35% between 2019 and 2020

  • Consumer confidence falls in Brazil  

    Although small, the drop halts the recovery trend seen in June, when confidence indicators from almost all sectors registered increases.

  • Lower-than-expected activity pickup in Colombia  

    Weak consumer confidence, labor market, and lower global growth make us believe a meaningful and durable activity acceleration this year is unlikely. 

  • Evening Edition – Inflation below expectations in Brazil  

    After the release of today's result, we revised slightly our estimate for the headline IPCA in July to 0.20%.

  • Evening Edition – Industry confidence drops further in Brazil  

    The low level of confidence is consistent, in our calculations, with a 0.4% qoq/sa decline of industrial production in the month.

  • Industry confidence drops further in Brazil  

    With the result, confidence in the industrial sector continues to show no signs of a rebound.

  • Stable rates in Chile, for now  

    Looking forward, we expect the policy rate to reach 2.0% by yearend, with the next cut likely in September. 

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Chile, for now  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Evening Edition – Monetary policy decision to be announced tonight in Chile  

    We expect stable rates at this meeting

  • Consumer confidence deteriorates further in Colombia  

    Pessimism has reigned for consumers in 9 of the last 10 months.

  • Evening Edition – Consumer confidence deteriorates further in Colombia  

    Pessimism has reigned for consumers in 9 of the last 10 months.

  • Inflation continues to decelerate in Argentina  

    Moderate disinflation will likely continue in July.

  • Monthly GDP indicators expand in Brazil  

    Both BCB and Itaú's monthly GDP indicators increased in May.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation continues to decelerate in Argentina  

    Consumer prices decelerated for the third consecutive month in June.

  • Evening Edition – Monthly GDP index expands in Brazil  

    Both BCB and Itaú's monthly GDP increased in May.

  • Brazilian Lower House finishes first vote with a BRL 865 bn reform  

    Now, the second round of voting is very likely to take place only in August.

  • Brazilian Lower House still voting on amendments to the pension reform  

    On Wednesday, the House concluded the first round of voting on the base text, with 379 votes in favor and 131 against the proposal.

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected service sector revenues in Brazil  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Lower House still voting on amendments to the pension reform  

    Last night, the House concluded the first round of voting on the base text, with 379 votes in favor and 131 against the proposal.

  • Brazilian Lower House approves the main text of the pension reform  

    The plenary started to analyze the highlights, and, possibly later this week, will move on to the second round of voting

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian Lower House may vote the pension reform in the next hours  

    The Lower House is currently analyzing the requirements and, once this step is completed, the plenary will be able to vote the main text.

  • Lower House approaches pension reform vote in Brazil  

    According to local news, the Lower House is set to begin in the next hours the first round of voting on the pension reform.

  • Weak activity in Chile  

    Downbeat private sentiment amid an uncertain global scenario justify our 2.4% growth call for this year.

  • Evening Edition – Low inflation in Chile  

    Given our outlook of a growth slowdown this year, we do not expect a notable acceleration of inflation.

  • Evening Edition – Weak activity in Chile  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Pension reform approved at the Special Committe in Brazil  

    The Lower House will probably start to analyze the proposal on Tuesday

  • Waiting for the pension reform vote in Brazil  

    It will be important to monitor how these steps will evolve, in order to gauge the timing of the first Lower House floor vote.

  • Evening Edition – Special committee starts to vote on the pension reform in Brazil  

    The committee is now voting on the amendments, which might be concluded today

  • Industrial production declines in Brazil  

    After this result, our GDP tracking for 2Q19 increased slightly, to 0.3% qoq/sa (from 0.2% previously)

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales temporary boost in Chile  

    For 2019, we see GDP growth of 2.4%, down from 4% in 2018

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production declines in Brazil  

    Industrial production declined 0.2% mom/sa in May.

  • Industrial production to be released in Brazil  

    We forecast a 0.6% decline on seasonally adjusted terms.

  • Evening Edition – Interest rate expectations continue to fall in Brazil  

    The median of the Selic rate expectations declined to 5.50%, from 5.75%.

  • Unemployment rate declines in Brazil  

    Seasonally adjusted, the unemployment rate slid 0.1 p.p. to 11.8%.

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment rate declines in Brazil  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Service sector confidence rebounds in Brazil  

    This result goes in line with the rebound also registered in the consumer, retail and construction confidence indicators in the period.

  • Evening Edition – Job creation below expectations in Brazil  

    The 3-month moving average decreased to 13k, from 26k in the previous month.

  • Industrial confidence declines in Brazil  

    The print is broadly in line with the preview released last week, in which industrial confidence fell 1.4 p.p.

  • Evening Edition – Output rebounds in Argentina  

    The risks are still tilted to the downside, given ongoing adjustments and uncertainties regarding the outcome of the upcoming presidential election

  • Confidence indicators rebound in Brazil  

    Both retail and construction confidence indicators registered increases in June.

  • Evening Edition – Copom minutes: easing ahead in Brazil, probably  

    The minutes reinforce our call that the Copom will resume easing in July, conditional on concrete progress in the reform front.

  • MEXICO – Retail sales surprised to the upside in April  

    The solid real wage bill growth has been a buffer for private consumption

  • Consumer confidence increases in Brazil  

    This increase interrups a series of four consecutive drops

  • Evening Edition – Activity remains weak in Mexico  

    We expect economic activity to decelerate to 1.0% in 2019, from 2.0% in 2018.

  • BCB ready to resume easing, conditional on reform  

    We will learn more about the authorities´ views with the release of the meeting minutes at 08:00 AM on Tuesday, June 25

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Colombia  

    In our view, a widening output gap (we see growth at 2.6% this year) and controlled inflation would likely lead the central bank to cut rates

  • Copom meeting to take center stage in Brazil  

    We believe that the Copom will maintain the Selic rate stable at 6.5% per year

  • Evening Edition – Brazil's Copom is ready to resume easing, conditional on reform approval  

    The Copom decision to leave the base rate unchanged at 6.5% pa was widely anticipated.

  • Survey participants expect rate cuts in Brazil later this year  

    The year-end Selic rate for 2019 declined 75 bps to 5.75%

  • Evening Edition – Copom meeting to take center stage in Brazil tomorrow  

    We believe that the Copom will maintain the Selic rate stable at 6.5% per year.

  • Evening Edition – Market expects rate cuts in Brazil later this year  

    According to the Focus survey, the median of Selic rate expectations declined 75 bps from its current level.

  • Economic activity falls further in Brazil  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Pension reform report presented at the Lower House in Brazil  

    Considering the report, we estimate fiscal savings of BRL 930 bln in 10 years

  • Evening Edition – Activity falls further in Brazil  

    Compared to the same month of 2018, the index declined 0.6%.

  • All eyes on the pension reform report in Brazil  

    The rapporteur Samuel Moreira is expected to present the full report to the Lower House Special Committee today, at 9:30 AM

  • Evening Edition – Pension reform’s report presented at the Lower House in Brazil  

    According to the rapporteur, the fiscal impact estimate of the proposal after the changes amounts to BRL 913 bn in the next ten years.

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales below expectations in Brazil  

    Broad retail sales remained stable (seasonally-adjusted) in April, weaker than market expectations and our forecast.

  • Weak industrial production in Mexico  

    At the margin, industrial production improved, but momentum remained moderate.

  • Additional details on the surprising rate cut in Chile  

    The board’s working assumption going forward is for stable rates for the following quarters

  • Evening Edition – Soft industrial production in Mexico  

    At the margin, industrial production improved, but momentum remained moderate.

  • Surprising rate cut in Chile  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Evening Edition – Additional details on the surprising rate cut in Chile  

    Elements justifying the largest rate cut in a decade include the activity outlook downgrade, higher potential growth and lower estimated neutral rate.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation decelerates in Brazil  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Lower-than-expected fixed investment in Mexico  

    Weak public investment, associated to a transition effect between administrations, will probably affect construction investment in the short-term

  • Activity growth remains below potential in Chile  

    Activity in the primary sector is expected to improve ahead but we see clear downside risks to our 3% growth outlook.

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected fixed investment in Mexico  

    According to calendar adjusted figures, gross fixed investment fell sharply in March.

  • Industrial production remains weak in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecast for May’s industrial production is a 2% mom/sa decline

  • Evening Edition – Activity growth remains below potential in Chile  

    The monthly GDP proxy (Imacec) increased 2.1% yoy in April, in line with market consensus and a tick above our 1.9% call.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production remains weak in Brazil  

    The 3-month moving average rate with seasonal adjustment declined 0.1%.

  • Retail sales decelerate in Chile  

    The increasingly complex external scenario is resulting in growing domestic uncertainty.

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales decelerate in Chile  

    Retail sales (including vehicles) fell 0.8% over twelve months in the period, below the market consensus (-0.6%) and our forecast (-0.3%).

  • Unemployment remains high in Brazil  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Brazil’s GDP shrank in the first quarter  

    For 2Q19, our preliminary forecast is a modest GDP growth of 0.1% qoq/sa.

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment remains high in Brazil  

    The national unemployment rate reached 12.5% in April.

  • Brazil’s GDP to be released today  

    We forecast a 0.2% qoq/sa decline, leading to 0.4% growth in year-over-year terms

  • Evening Edition – GDP shrinks at the margin in Brazil  

    GDP declined 0.2% qoq/sa in 1Q19.

  • Service sector confidence decreases in Brazil  

    Confidence across all sectors decreased in the month, which indicate no substantial acceleration in economic activity ahead

  • Evening Edition – New loans decelerate in Brazil  

    The NPL ratio remained unchanged at 4.7% for consumers and declined to 2.7% for businesses (from 2.8%).

  • Industrial confidence declines in Brazil  

    Data released so far for 2Q19 indicate no substantial acceleration in economic activity ahead, after a disappointing 1Q19.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence declines in Brazil  

    Data released so far for 2Q19 indicate no substantial acceleration in economic activity ahead, after a disappointing 1Q19.

  • Construction confidence falls further in Brazil  

    The negative result was driven both by the expectation and current situation components.

  • Evening Edition – Monetary policy board discusses all options in Chile  

    Although all members agreed to maintain the rates stable at 3%, several stated that a neutral stance justified discussing all possibilities.

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected job creation in Brazil  

    Using our seasonal adjustment, formal job creation increased to 50k in April.

  • Confidence indicators fall further in Brazil  

    Declines were observed in industrial, consumer and now retail confidence indicators.

  • Consumer confidence falls in Brazil  

    The decline was driven by drops both in the expectations and current situation components.

  • Evening Edition – Core inflation decelerates in Mexico  

    Core CPI came in at 0.09% (from 0.13% a year ago), pressured by tradable prices, while core services decelerated.

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales decelerate in Mexico  

    Using calendar-adjusted data, retail sales grew at a slower pace in March.

  • Waiting for data releases  

    Activity and confidence indicators in several countries from Latam will be published today, adding to the expenditure report in Brazil.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence decreases in Brazil  

    Activity data released so far for 2Q19 indicate no substantial acceleration in economic activity.

  • Industrial confidence decreases in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows a drop both in current conditions and expectations components.

  • Evening Edition – Weak activity start in Chile  

    Depressed private sentiment and a slowing global economy mean Chile’s growth risks are tilted to the downside.

  • Consumer confidence returns to pessimistic levels in Colombia  

    Despite the negative print, part of the worsening of consumer confidence could be transitory.

  • Stable rates in Mexico  

    The Board sees the recent high in inflation as transitory, and believes its policy stance is consistent with the convergence of inflation to its target.

  • Evening Edition – Consumer confidence returns to pessimistic levels in Colombia  

    The print was likely influenced by the weaker Colombian peso and protests that affected transportation routes and led to higher inflation.

  • Brazil’s monthly GDP declines in March  

    The result marked the third consecutive monthly decline, leading the indicator to decrease 0.7% on a quarterly basis.

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Mexico  

    The Board recognizes the recent acceleration in inflation as transitory and see inflation converging toward its target with current rate levels.

  • Evening Edition – Economic activity drops further in Brazil  

    According to BCB, the monthly GDP proxy index (IBC-Br) decreased 0.3% mom/sa in March.

  • Activity indicators fall further in Brazil  

    Both our monthly GDP proxy (PM-Itaú) and service sector revenues (PMS) declined in March.

  • Copom minutes: On sufficient conditions  

    The committee indicates that, while 1Q19's GDP may well have a negative print, activity is likely to rebound after the pension reform.

  • Evening Edition – Copom minutes: Selic rate still at comfortable level  

    The minutes suggest the Copom is still comfortable with the level of the Selic rate, but we expect the BCB to cut rates again in September.

  • Evening Edition – Copom minutes to be released tomorrow in Brazil  

    Our LatAm Macro Monthly report was published today, featuring scenarios for Latam economies, the global scenario and commodities.

  • Core inflation remains well behaved in Brazil  

    Despite some monthly upward pressure in the core services component, core inflation remains in comfortable levels.

  • Evening Edition – Core inflation remains well behaved in Brazil  

    Despite some monthly upward pressure in the core services component, core inflation remains in comfortable levels.

  • Retail sales below expectations in Brazil  

    The print reinforces our view of weak GDP growth in 1Q19.

  • BCB acknowledges a weaker economy, but signals no imminent reaction  

    We’ll learn more about their thinking with the release of the minutes on Tuesday, May 14 at 08:00 AM.

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales below expectations in Brazil  

    For the time being, we anticipate seasonally-adjusted declines in both retail sales indicators in April

  • Gross fixed investment improved at the margin in Mexico  

    Uncertainty over the direction of domestic policy and the approval of the USMCA by the U.S. Congress will continue to weigh on investment in the short-term

  • Evening Edition – BCB acknowledges a weaker economy, but signals no imminent reaction  

    We’ll learn more about their thinking with the release of the minutes on Tuesday, May 14 at 08:00 AM

  • Stable rates in line with slow activity recovery and well-behaved inflation in Colombia  

    We believe that the central bank will remain on hold throughout the year

  • Evening Edition – Gross fixed investment improved at the margin in Mexico  

    Gross fixed investment came in above expectations in February.

  • Evening Edition – Widespread activity slowdown in Chile  

    Activity in the first quarter of 2019 grew at its slowest pace since 2Q17.

  • Busy week in Brazil, with Copom, inflation and activity data  

    We expect the Copom to maintain the Selic rate at 6.50% in its next monetary policy meeting.

  • Busy week in Brazil, with Copom, inflation and activity data  

    We expect the Copom to maintain the Selic rate at 6.50% in its next monetary policy meeting.

  • Vehicle sales slightly rise in Brazil  

    March's industrial production will also be released today.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production surprises to the downside in Brazil  

    Next week, Copom, inflation and activity data on focus.

  • Activity recovery continues in Argentina  

    The EMAE (official monthly GDP proxy) printed the third consecutive increase in February.

  • Evening Edition – Vehicle sales rise slightly in Brazil  

    For April’s industrial production, our preliminary forecast points to a 0.9% mom/sa decline.

  • Confidence indicators decrease again in Brazil  

    With these results, the week was marked by weak results in confidence indicators among broadly all sectors.

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment recedes slightly in Brazil  

    Despite the improvement, the indicators still reflect a slow-paced recovery of the labor market in the first quarter of the year.


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