Itaú BBA - Latam Talking Points
  • Evening Edition – Retail sales decelerate in Mexico  

    Using calendar-adjusted data, retail sales grew at a slower pace in March.

  • Waiting for data releases  

    Activity and confidence indicators in several countries from Latam will be published today, adding to the expenditure report in Brazil.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence decreases in Brazil  

    Activity data released so far for 2Q19 indicate no substantial acceleration in economic activity.

  • Industrial confidence decreases in Brazil  

    The breakdown shows a drop both in current conditions and expectations components.

  • Evening Edition – Weak activity start in Chile  

    Depressed private sentiment and a slowing global economy mean Chile’s growth risks are tilted to the downside.

  • Consumer confidence returns to pessimistic levels in Colombia  

    Despite the negative print, part of the worsening of consumer confidence could be transitory.

  • Stable rates in Mexico  

    The Board sees the recent high in inflation as transitory, and believes its policy stance is consistent with the convergence of inflation to its target.

  • Evening Edition – Consumer confidence returns to pessimistic levels in Colombia  

    The print was likely influenced by the weaker Colombian peso and protests that affected transportation routes and led to higher inflation.

  • Brazil’s monthly GDP declines in March  

    The result marked the third consecutive monthly decline, leading the indicator to decrease 0.7% on a quarterly basis.

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Mexico  

    The Board recognizes the recent acceleration in inflation as transitory and see inflation converging toward its target with current rate levels.

  • Evening Edition – Economic activity drops further in Brazil  

    According to BCB, the monthly GDP proxy index (IBC-Br) decreased 0.3% mom/sa in March.

  • Activity indicators fall further in Brazil  

    Both our monthly GDP proxy (PM-Itaú) and service sector revenues (PMS) declined in March.

  • Copom minutes: On sufficient conditions  

    The committee indicates that, while 1Q19's GDP may well have a negative print, activity is likely to rebound after the pension reform.

  • Evening Edition – Copom minutes: Selic rate still at comfortable level  

    The minutes suggest the Copom is still comfortable with the level of the Selic rate, but we expect the BCB to cut rates again in September.

  • Evening Edition – Copom minutes to be released tomorrow in Brazil  

    Our LatAm Macro Monthly report was published today, featuring scenarios for Latam economies, the global scenario and commodities.

  • Core inflation remains well behaved in Brazil  

    Despite some monthly upward pressure in the core services component, core inflation remains in comfortable levels.

  • Evening Edition – Core inflation remains well behaved in Brazil  

    Despite some monthly upward pressure in the core services component, core inflation remains in comfortable levels.

  • Retail sales below expectations in Brazil  

    The print reinforces our view of weak GDP growth in 1Q19.

  • BCB acknowledges a weaker economy, but signals no imminent reaction  

    We’ll learn more about their thinking with the release of the minutes on Tuesday, May 14 at 08:00 AM.

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales below expectations in Brazil  

    For the time being, we anticipate seasonally-adjusted declines in both retail sales indicators in April

  • Gross fixed investment improved at the margin in Mexico  

    Uncertainty over the direction of domestic policy and the approval of the USMCA by the U.S. Congress will continue to weigh on investment in the short-term

  • Evening Edition – BCB acknowledges a weaker economy, but signals no imminent reaction  

    We’ll learn more about their thinking with the release of the minutes on Tuesday, May 14 at 08:00 AM

  • Stable rates in line with slow activity recovery and well-behaved inflation in Colombia  

    We believe that the central bank will remain on hold throughout the year

  • Evening Edition – Gross fixed investment improved at the margin in Mexico  

    Gross fixed investment came in above expectations in February.

  • Evening Edition – Widespread activity slowdown in Chile  

    Activity in the first quarter of 2019 grew at its slowest pace since 2Q17.

  • Busy week in Brazil, with Copom, inflation and activity data  

    We expect the Copom to maintain the Selic rate at 6.50% in its next monetary policy meeting.

  • Vehicle sales slightly rise in Brazil  

    March's industrial production will also be released today.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production surprises to the downside in Brazil  

    Next week, Copom, inflation and activity data on focus.

  • Activity recovery continues in Argentina  

    The EMAE (official monthly GDP proxy) printed the third consecutive increase in February.

  • Evening Edition – Vehicle sales rise slightly in Brazil  

    For April’s industrial production, our preliminary forecast points to a 0.9% mom/sa decline.

  • Confidence indicators decrease again in Brazil  

    With these results, the week was marked by weak results in confidence indicators among broadly all sectors.

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment recedes slightly in Brazil  

    Despite the improvement, the indicators still reflect a slow-paced recovery of the labor market in the first quarter of the year.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence slightly increases in Brazil  

    Despite the increase, the level of industrial business confidence remains low, pointing to stagnation of industrial production going forward.

  • Industrial confidence slightly increases in Brazil  

    While still timid, the advance is better than the sideway movements registered in other sectors in the same period.

  • Evening Edition – Stable rates in Colombia  

    Additional widening in the CAD or tightening of financial conditions could change the mood in the board.

  • Confidence indicators remain in pessimistic ground in Brazil  

    Confidence in the retail and construction sectors moved sideways in April.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation came in slightly above expectations in Brazil  

    The industrial prices component surprised to the upside

  • Brazil’s government approval rate remained broadly stable in April  

    The poll surveyed 2000 participants between April 12th and 15th.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s government approval rate remains broadly stable in April  

    The poll surveyed 2000 participants between April 12th and 15th.

  • Brazil’s lawmakers approve the pension reform report at the Constitutional and Justice Committee  

    The proposal will now head to a Special Committee at the Lower House, yet to be created.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s Constitutional and Justice Committee to vote the pension reform tonight  

    If the proposal is approved, it will then be evaluated by a Special Commission at the Lower House, yet to be created.

  • Weaker-than-expected activity in Colombia  

    At the margin, activity lost momentum, expanding a mild 1.0% qoq/saar, below the 3.1% recorded in 4Q18.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial confidence still weak in Brazil  

    If this trend of confidence indicators moving sideways continues, it will indicate a formal job creation (CAGED) of around 20k in April.

  • Industrial confidence still weak in Brazil  

    If this trend of confidence indicators moving sideways continues in other sectors, this will indicate a formal job creation (CAGED) of around 20k in April.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation and job creation on focus next week in Brazil  

    April’s IPCA-15 mid-month inflation will be released on Thursday. We expect a 0.69% increase in the period.

  • Government to freeze regulated prices in Argentina  

    While the policy, in our view, will not have a material impact on the CPI, it signals the government’s concern in maintaining support for the October election.

  • Evening Edition – Government to freeze regulated prices in Argentina  

    Untamed inflation and the political cycle have led the government to adopt incomes policy.

  • Inflation surprises to the upside in Argentina  

    The political cycle and uncertainty about the outcome of the presidential elections is a obstacle to disinflation.

  • Monthly GDP reaffirms weak activity in Brazil  

    Additionally, the government presented its budgetary guidelines law (LDO) proposal for 2020 to Congress, in line with our call.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation strongly surprises to the upside in Argentina  

    Consumer prices rose 4.7% mom from February, above the 4.05% market consensus forecast.

  • We reduced Brazil´s GDP growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020  

    Our LatAm Macro Monthly report was published on Friday, featuring scenarios for Brazil, LaTam, the global economy and commodities.

  • Evening Edition – Monthly GDP reaffirms weak activity in Brazil  

    On a quarterly basis, the index decreased 0.2%.

  • Evening Edition – Services sector revenues drop in Brazil  

    Our GDP tracking for 1Q19 continues to point to a 0.1% qoq/sa decline.

  • Banxico minutes: Inflation outlook still concerns board members  

    We expect Banxico to deliver two 25-bp rate cuts in the last quarter of 2019.

  • March’s indicators reaffirm weak economic activity in Brazil  

    We estimate a 2.6% and 0.4% mom/sa decrease in ABPO and ABCR in the period.

  • Evening Edition – Banxico minutes: Inflation outlook still concerns  

    The minutes indicate that most board members are still worried with the inflation outlook.

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    Notwithstanding the elevated headline result for March, core inflation measures remain on a very comfortable path.

  • Retail sales still indicate weak activity recovery in Brazil  

    We forecast gains of 0.3% in core retail sales and 0.9% in broad retail sales for March.

  • Inflation surprises to the upside in Chile  

    Overall, the still-low inflation, looser policy stance by the Fed, and risks to global growth suggest there is no haste to remove stimulus in the near term.

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales still indicate weak activity recovery in Brazil  

    February’s core retail sales remained flat, while the broad index receded in the period.

  • Economic activity decelerates in Chile  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Evening Edition – Inflation surprises to the upside in Chile  

    A moderation in downside inflationary pressures is in line with the view that low inflation is transitory

  • Evening Edition – Economic activity decelerates in Chile  

    See our Week Ahead full note at the end of this report.

  • Industrial activity decelerates in Argentina  

    Indec also reported construction activity indicators for February.

  • Evening Edition – Industrial activity declines in Argentina  

    Industrial activity fell by 8.5% yoy in February 2019, marking its tenth consecutive drop.

  • Brazil´s president to meet with party leaders today  

    Bolsonaro will reportedly meet with six or more party leaders throughout the day.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil´s president to meet with party leaders tomorrow  

    It is important to watch the outcome of these meetings closely, to gauge the lawmaker's positions may evolve throughout the next weeks.

  • Sharp decline in mining and extraction impacts industrial production in Brazil  

    We now forecast a 0.1% mom/sa decrease for March’s industrial production

  • Low rates for longer in Chile  

    Chilean central bank is following the global liquidity tide, while also reacting to domestic issues that reflect a slower inflation convergence to the 3% target

  • Evening Edition – Sharp decline in mining and extraction impacts industrial production in Brazil  

    Quarterly moving average remained stable in February.

  • Evening Edition – Low rates for longer in Chile  

    Overall, the Chilean central bank is following the global liquidity tide and reacting to developments that reflect a slower inflation towards the 3% target.

  • Chile’s Monetary Policy Meeting: Following the global liquidity tide  

    Stable rates for most of this year is the likely base case scenario

  • Confidence indicators of all sectors drop in Brazil  

    The week was marked by a generalized drop in confidence among all sectors, reinforcing our view of weak growth in early 2019.

  • Evening Edition – Unemployment in Brazil remains broadly stable  

    The national unemployment rate reached 12.4% in February, in line with our call and 0.1 p.p. below the market’s.

  • Evening Edition – BCB Inflation Report: Forecasts still point to stable Selic rate in 2019  

    BCB released its 1Q19’s quarterly inflation report.

  • Consumer’s confidence falls in Brazil  

    Confidence fell among consumers of all income classes

  • Evening Edition – New loans increase in Brazil  

    Overall seasonally-adjusted delinquency remained virtually stable at 2.9%.

  • Brazil’s labor market continues to show a slow pace in early 2019  

    CAGED (formal job creation) registered a net creation of 173k jobs in February

  • Evening Edition – Copom Minutes: Waiting for clarity  

    We expect the Selic rate to remain stable at next meetings.

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s labor market continues to show a slow pace in early 2019  

    CAGED registered a net creation of 173k jobs in February.

  • Colombia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: No rate moves in sight  

    We expect a central bank hike only by the end of the year

  • Evening Edition – Colombia’s Monetary Policy Meeting: No rate moves in sight  

    We only expect a rate hike by the end of the year

  • Argentina’s GDP falls 2.5% in 2018  

    Decelerating activity also led to higher unemployment in 4Q18.

  • Evening Edition - Argentina’s GDP falls 2.5% in 2018  

    We project a GDP contraction of 1.2% for this year.

  • Copom: symmetric risks, no rush to act  

    The committee now sees the balance of risks to inflation as symmetric

  • Selic rate to remain stable at today’s Copom meeting  

    We believe that the committee will keep the Selic rate stable at 6.5% p.a.

  • Evening Edition – Selic rate to remain stable at tomorrow’s Copom meeting  

    Inflation forecasts are anchored, in a context where the level of slack in the economy remains high.

  • Activity rebounds in Chile  

    For 2019, we see GDP growth moderating to 3.2%

  • January’s services revenues decline in Brazil  

    In year-over-year terms, the indicator came in at 2.1%

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected activity in Chile  

    For 2019, we see GDP growth moderating to 3.2%

  • Evening Edition – January’s services revenues decline in Brazil  

    Year-over-year, the index increased 3.6%

  • Retail sales above expectations in Brazil  

    Year-over-year, the index increased 1.9%, from 0.6% in the previous month

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales above expectations in Brazil  

    Year-over-year, the index increased 1.9%, from 0.6% in the previous month

  • Brazilian Lower House establishes the Constitutional and Justice Committee  

    The analysis by the CCJ is the first step towards approving the pension reform, presented by the government to Congress on February 20

  • February’s inflation slightly above consensus in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecast for the IPCA in March is 0.51%, with the year-over-year change picking up to 4.33%

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production reaffirms weak activity recovery in Brazil  

    Our preliminary estimate for February is a 1.4% increase at the margin

  • Evening Edition – February inflation in Brazil slightly above consensus  

    Our preliminary forecast for the IPCA in March is 0.51%, with the year-over-year change picking up to 4.33%.

  • Solid auto production in Brazil  

    Despite the strong increase in auto production, demand data remain weak, posting mixed results in February

  • Data reaffirm low inflationary pressure in Chile  

    The inflation rates will likely remain low this year

  • Evening Edition – Solid auto production in Brazil  

    Despite the strong increase in auto production, demand data remain weak for the month

  • Inflation decelerates in Mexico  

    We revised our yearend forecast for 2019 to 3.6%, due to recent downside surprises

  • Evening Edition – Data reaffirm low inflationary pressure in Chile  

    The inflation rates will likely remain low this year

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Colombia  

    With the result, inflation reached the central bank’s 3% target, further enhancing the case for stable rates for the time being

  • Evening Edition – Inflation decelerates in Mexico  

    We revised our yearend forecast for 2019 to 3.6%, due to recent downside surprises.

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Colombia  

    With the result, inflation reached the central bank’s 3% target, further enhancing the case for stable rates for the time being

  • Brazilian GDP growth confirms weak activity in 2018  

    Looking ahead, we expect GDP to grow 2.0% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020, assuming progress in reforms

  • Evening Edition – Central Bank tightens the monetary policy in Argentina  

    The decisions go in the right direction, given the deterioration of the inflation outlook and the proximity of the wage bargaining season

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian GDP growth confirms weak activity in 2018  

    We expect GDP to grow 2.0% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020, assuming reforms advance. Importantly, the earliest indicators for 1Q19 add downside to our call

  • Higher-than-expected unemployment rate in Brazil  

    We expect the unemployment rate to slide to 11.8% by year-end and to 11.5% by the end of 2020

  • Evening Edition – Higher-than-expected unemployment rate in Brazil  

    We expect the unemployment rate to slide to 11.8% by year-end and to 11.5% by the end of 2020.

  • Campos Neto signals continuity at the BCB  

    His speech focused on creating a sense of continuity, praising both the work done by the current administration

  • Weaker-than-expected GDP growth in Mexico  

    We expect economic activity to slow to 1.7% this year, with risks tilted to the downside

  • Evening Edition – Campos Neto signals continuity at the BCB  

    His speech focused on creating a sense of continuity

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected GDP in Mexico  

    We expect economic activity to slow to 1.7% this year, with risks tilted to the downside

  • Fitch reaffirms Chile as ‘A’ rating and stable outlook  

    Fitch has kept Chile’s rating stable since the one notch downgrade implemented in August 2017

  • Evening Edition – Inflation falls within Banxico’s target range  

    We expect inflation to reach 3.8% for the end of this year.

  • Inflation virtually in line with expectations in Brazil  

    The education component posted the major positive monthly change

  • Brazilian pension reform proposal confirms minimum age and transition period  

    The reform will now be examined by the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) as well as special commissions

  • Evening Edition – Inflation virtually in line with expectations in Brazil  

    In year-over-year terms, the inflation registered a 3.73% change

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian pension reform proposal confirms expectations  

    The reform will now be examined by the Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) as well as special commissions

  • Pension reform to be presented to Brazilian Congress today  

    Further details about the proposal and its impact on public finances should be the highlight

  • Market analysts expect normalization cycle to be postponed in Colombia  

    A still-incipient activity recovery, risky global scenario and better-behaved inflation suggest there is no need for rate hikes in the near term

  • Evening Edition – Pension reform to be presented to Brazilian Congress tomorrow  

    Further details about the proposal and its impact on public finances should be the highlight

  • Evening Edition – Start of normalization cycle delayed in Colombia  

    A still-incipient activity recovery, risky global scenario and better-behaved inflation suggest there is no need for rate hikes in the near term

  • Brazil’s GDP proxy consolidates weak activity in December  

    Relative to the same month in 2017, the index rose 0.2%

  • Social Security Secretary signals ambitious pension reform in Brazil  

    We still don’t have all the details on the final proposal, but it is shaping out to be ambitious

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s GDP proxy consolidates weak activity in December  

    Relative to the same month in 2017, the index rose 0.2%

  • Retail sales fall sharply in Brazil  

    We forecast a slight seasonally-adjusted increase in both retail sales indicators in January

  • Activity in Brazil still consistent with Copom´s base case  

    The minutes reinforce the case for stable Selic rate at the 6,5% in coming meetings

  • Evening Edition – Retail sales fall sharply in Brazil  

    For the time being, we forecast a slight seasonally-adjusted increase in both retail sales indicators in January.

  • Industrial production declines in Mexico  

    We expect economic activity to slow to 1.7% this year, with risks tilted to the downside, from a preliminary estimate of 2.0% in 2018

  • Evening Edition – Activity in Brazil still consistent with Copom´s base case  

    The minutes reinforce the case for stable Selic rate at the 6,5% in coming meetings

  • Evening Edition – Industrial production declines in Mexico  

    We expect economic activity to slow to 1.7% this year

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    Our preliminary estimate for the IPCA in February is a 0.28% increase that would push the year-over-year rate down slightly to 3.74%

  • Interest rates stable throughout 2019 in Mexico  

    We now expect the central bank to keep the policy rate unchanged throughout this year

  • A last (hawkish) salvo from BCB  

    We expect the Copom to leave the base rate unchanged until year-end

  • Evening Edition – Interest rates stable throughout 2019 in Mexico  

    We now expect the central bank to keep the policy rate unchanged throughout this year

  • Evening Edition – A last (hawkish) salvo from BCB  

    We will learn more about the authorities´ thinking with the release of the Copom minutes on Tuesday, February 12, at 0800 Brasília time.

  • Weaker-than-expected activity in Chile  

    We expect the activity recovery to consolidate this year, but lingering headwinds would reduce growth between 2019 and 2018

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected activity in Chile  

    We expect the activity recovery to consolidate this year

  • Favorable signals for activity in Chile  

    Retail sales including vehicles grew 2.4% (-0.8% in November), below the market consensus (3.0%) and our call (3.2%)

  • Evening Edition – Favorable signals for activity in Chile  

    Overall, we expect the monthly GDP proxy (Imacec) to grow 3.5% in December (3.1% previously) and 4.0% in 2018 (1.5% in 2017)

  • Brazil’s congress elects the speakers of the lower house and senate  

    Deputy Rodrigo Maia  (DEM) was re-elected to the Lower House speakership

  • Evening Edition – Brazilian industrial production ticks up in December  

    Our preliminary forecast for January is a 0.3% rise at the margin

  • Brazil’s unemployment rate increases in December  

    The reading was higher than our estimate and the median of market expectations (both at 11.4%).

  • Chilean central bank increases its policy rate to 3.0%  

    We retain our view of a gradual normalization cycle, with risks clearly tilted to fewer hikes

  • Evening Edition – Brazil’s unemployment rate increases in December  

    Brazil’s nationwide unemployment rate remained at 11.6% in the quarter ended in December

  • New loans climb in Brazil  

    The daily average of new non-earmarked loans for consumers increased 2.0% mom

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected GDP estimate in Mexico  

    We expect economic activity to decelerate to 1.7% this year, from a preliminary estimate of 2.0% in 2018

  • Confidence indicators lose momentum in Brazil  

    Confidence within the retail sector remained virtually unchanged (-0.2%) in January, following three months of steady gains

  • Evening Edition – New loans climb in Brazil  

    The daily average of new non-earmarked loans for consumers increased 2.0% mom

  • Evening Edition – Confidence indicators lose momentum in Brazil  

    Confidence within the retail sector remained virtually unchanged (-0.2%) in January, following three months of steady gains

  • Recession deepened in Argentina  

    We forecast a GDP decline of 2.2% for the full year of 2018 due to tight macro policies and lower real wages

  • Seasonally-adjusted formal job creation remained positive in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in January is a 0.40% increase, lifting the year-over-year rate to 3.86%

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expect inflation in Mexico  

    We expect inflation to reach 3.8% for the end of this year

  • Evening Edition – Seasonally-adjusted formal job creation remained positive in Brazil  

    Going forward, we expect the improvement in financial conditions since October to continue supporting the formal labor market

  • All eyes on formal job creation in Brazil  

    We forecast a net destruction of 314k jobs

  • Bolsonaro’s speech in Davos at the spotlight  

    President Bolsonaro will make his speech at the World Economic Forum annual meeting

  • Evening Edition – President Bolsonaro’s speech keeps signaling a reform agenda  

    The president said that the government has the credibility required to carry out the reforms that “the country needs and the world expects”

  • Strong activity recovery in Colombia  

    We expect the activity recovery to continue, aided by low inflation and a mildly expansionary monetary policy.

  • Evening Edition – Bolsonaro’s speech in Davos at the spotlight  

    President Bolsonaro will make his speech at the World Economic Forum annual meeting

  • Evening Edition – Strong activity recovery in Colombia  

    We expect the activity recovery to continue, aided by low inflation and a mildly expansionary monetary policy

  • Monthly GDP proxy increased in Brazil  

    Relative to the same month in 2017, the index rose 1.9%

  • Evening Edition – Monthly GDP proxy increased in Brazil  

    Relative to the same month in 2017, the index rose 1.9%

  • Itaú’s monthly GDP expands in November  

    Such weakness, is caused by the lagged effect of tighter financial conditions in 3Q18 combined with the slowdown in global growth

  • Stronger-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    Going forward, we expect growth to accelerate, prompted by more expansive financial conditions

  • Evening Edition – Itaú’s monthly GDP expands in November  

    In our view, such weakness is caused by the lagged effect of tighter financial conditions in 3Q18 combined with the slowdown in global growth

  • Activity data still weak in Brazil  

    The weak result reinforces the outlook of a soft industrial production in 4Q18

  • Evening Edition – Stronger-than-expected retail sales in Brazil  

    Going forward, we expect growth to accelerate, prompted by more expansive financial conditions

  • Evening Edition – Activity data still weak in Brazil  

    The weak result reinforces the outlook of a soft industrial production in 4Q18

  • Inflation ends 2018 at 3.75% in Brazil  

    For January, our preliminary estimate for the IPCA is a 0.42% increase, which would lift the year-over-year rate to 3.9%

  • Evening Edition - Inflation ends 2018 at 3.75% in Brazil  

    For January, our preliminary estimate for the IPCA is a 0.42% increase

  • Rate hike expected in Chile this month  

    It would be the second hike in the gradual normalization cycle following the October initiation

  • Evening Edition – Rate hike expected in Chile this month  

    We expect four rate hikes this year (to 3.75%)

  • Lower-than-expected inflation in Mexico  

    We expect annual inflation to end 2019 at 3.8%

  • Weaker-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecast for December is a 1.0% increase at the margin

  • Evening Edition – Lower-than-expected inflation in Mexico  

    We expect annual inflation to end 2019 at 3.8%

  • Activity surprise solidifies case for a rate hike this month in Chile  

    We expect a deceleration to a still-solid 3.5%

  • Evening Edition – Weaker-than-expected industrial production in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecast for December is a 1.0% increase at the margin

  • Chilean consumption weakens in November  

    We expect growth of 3.5%, down from the 3.9% seen for 2018

  • Evening Edition – Activity surprise solidifies case for a rate hike this month in Chile  

    We expect a deceleration to a still-solid 3.5% pace this year

  • Evening Edition – Chilean consumption weakens in November  

    We expect growth of 3.5%, down from the 3.9% seen for 2018

  • Further hikes can’t be taken for granted in Mexico  

    We still expect one additional interest rate hike (bringing the policy rate to 8.5%) in 1Q19

  • Evening Edition – Further hikes can’t be taken for granted in Mexico  

    However, the minutes do not suggest that any of the four board members that took part in the decision has the mind set on hiking again

  • Brazil’s new economy minister reinforces uncontrolled expenditure growth as the main problem  

    He stated his view that the uncontrollable expansion of government spending is the main problem in Brazil

  • Jair Bolsonaro takes office in Brazil  

    The new president kept the campaign tone

  • Evening Edition - Jair Bolsonaro takes office in Brazil  

    In the speech, Bolsonaro indicated that he will undertake initiatives to clash crime as a high-level priority

  • Colombia: Weak labor market in November  

    Weak labor market in November, faltering business and consumer confidence and lower oil prices pose risks to the activity recovery

  • Evening Edition - Colombia: Weak labor market in November  

    Weak labor market in November, faltering business and consumer confidence and lower oil prices pose risks to the activity recovery

  • Industry confidence slightly increases in December  

    Soft industry confidence in December glooms the meaningful confidence recovery from other sectors

  • Evening Edition - Commerce and construction confidences rise further in December  

    The confidence indicators’ performance in December solidifies the strong gains shown in the previous two months.

  • Commerce and construction confidences rise further in December  

    The confidence indicators’ performance in December solidifies the strong gains shown in the previous two months.

  • Banxico increases its policy rate to 8.25  

    Amid rising upside risks to inflation, we expect an additional 25-bp in the 1Q19

  • COLOMBIA – Monetary Policy Meeting: Stable rates and downplaying chances of hikes in the short-term  

    Current level of policy rate does not imply a lot of stimulus

  • Evening Edition - Lower-than-expected inflation in Brazil  

    Our preliminary forecast for the headline IPCA in December is a 0.18% hike, ending the year at 3.78%

  • Argentina’s GDP data confirm recession  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 2.2% this year

  • Evening Edition - Banxico increased its policy rate to 8.25%  

    Amid rising upside risks to inflation, we expect an additional 25-bp in the 1Q19

  • Selic rate to remain at 6.5% pa for a while  

    Projections are still consistent with the convergence of inflation towards its targets in 2019 and 2020

  • Evening Edition - Argentina’s GDP data confirm recession  

    We forecast a GDP contraction of 2.2% this year

  • Evening Edition - Selic rate to remain at 6.5% pa for a while  

    The Copom also discussed the recent drop in inflation forecasts and assessed the level of underlying inflation measures


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