Itaú BBA - Global Connections
  • Assessing the ‘sudden-stop’ risks for EM, Stephen Jen  

    We are likely to be at least several months too early in writing about the risk of a ‘sudden stop’ undermining some EM currencies and assets.

  • Developing Euphoria, Felix Zulauf  

    The consensus is expecting a better world economy later in the year in all regions

  • Sell in May, come back in October?  

    Global equity prices have historically exhibited a strange but powerful seasonality.

  • No Return to the World That Was, Felix W. Zulauf  

    Felix W. Zulauf is president and founder of Zulauf Asset Management AG.

  • The Fate of USDJPY Will Be Determined by Japanese Investors, Stephen Jen  

    Now that the BOJ will be led by a team of super-doves, the mechanism through which a more aggressive BOJ could influence the yen is through capital flows.

  • From Doubts to Convictions – Felix Zulauf  

    A short while ago the VIPs and aspiring VIPs of world politics and business met at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

  • THE RESOURCE CURSE, by Stephen Jen  

    In recent months, the currencies of some resource-exporting countries have significantly underperformed many of the resource-importing countries.

  • COMPLETE GLOBAL ABANDONMENT OF CONSERVATIVE PRINCIPLES, Felix Zulauf  

    The year 2012 turned out to be a much better year for investors than generally feared a year ago.

  • The Long-Term Fiscal Challenges of the US, by Stephen Jen  

    While many may have in mind the urgency of diffusing the immediate growth threat, the reality is that the debt story of the US is more complicated.

  • THE RETURN OF THE FELDSTEIN-HORIOKA PUZZLE, by Stephen Jen  

    Countries save and invest. The gap between the savings rate and the investment rate is the current account balance.

  • NEW GOVERNMENTS – OLD PROBLEMS, by Felix Zulauf  

    There was a lot of hoopla over virtually no change in the final outcome of the US election for the presidency and Congress.

  • What deleveraging?, by Stephen Jen  

    The deleveraging process has not even begun. For most developed countries, overall leverage has actually risen since 2008.

  • The True Interest Burden of Spain and Italy, by Stephen Jen  

    The ECB’s intentions are clear: it will supply the pixie dust to keep the bumblebee in the air.

  • INVESTMENT OUTLOOK – JULY 2012, by Felix Zulauf  

    We are all getting tired by how much the world has become hostage to the never-ending Euro drama.

  • The EMU Crisis, Hysteresis, and the Zone of Inaction, by Stephen Jen  

    Greece’s second election and France’s parliamentary election on June 17, 2012, could further complicate the political landscape in Europe.

  • CYCLICAL TRENDS REMAIN BEARISH – BUT TEMPORARY POPS ARE LIKELY, by Felix Zulauf  

    With the inability to form a government in Greece, even the euro optimists are not sure anymore whether Greece will stay inside the euro, or exit.

  • THIS BUSINESS IS GETTING MORE COMPLICATED, by Barton Biggs  

    Despite spending enormous amounts of time and money researching China and the price of oil, I believe the truth is that “nobody knows nuthin” about either.

  • QUANTITATIVE EASING: BENEFIT - COST TRADEOFFS, by Stephen Jen  

    In the four years since the Great Recession, investors have been conditioned to look to the Fed for assistance whenever there is an episode of risk-off.


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