Ir para menu Ir para conteúdo principal Ir para rodapé
Construction and mining sectors were the most affected


The monthly GDP proxy fell by 1.1% yoy in January (down from +0.9% in December), below market expectations of -0.9% (as per Bloomberg). The quarterly annual rate of monthly GDP stood at a soft 0.6% in January (from 1.7% in 4Q22), dragged by non-primary activity (0.3%, from 1.3%), while primary activity grew 2.7% (from 3.3%). We note the January figure was affected by protests, reflected mainly in the mining (-3.6% yoy in January), construction (-11.7%) and lodging (-4.3%) sectors. Commerce (1.2%) and service (1.0%) sectors grew at a soft pace, while volatile fishing output grew 33.0%.

Activity momentum deteriorated in January. Using seasonally adjusted series, published by Peru’s statistics institute, the monthly GDP fell by 1.4% mom in January, taking quarter over quarter (non-annualized) growth rate to -0.8%.  

The upside bias to our GDP growth forecast for this year of 1.8% from a more benign external environment (strong China growth and copper prices) is likely to be curbed by a weak 1Q23. Besides the effect from protests in activity in January (which seem to be cooling down in February), harsh weather conditions (Cyclone Yaku) are threatening the economy in March.

Julio Ruiz