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Domestic demand was supported by a rebound in gross fixed investment

Aggregate supply and demand grew 4.1% yoy in 4Q22 (from 6.4% in 3Q22), in line with our forecast and broadly in line with market consensus of 4.3% (as per Bloomberg). Aggregate supply and demand grew at the same pace using calendar adjusted figures, with imports of goods and services and GDP growth at 5.6% yoy in 4Q22 (from 11.5% in 3Q22) and 3.6% (from 4.4%), respectively. Domestic demand grew 4.8% yoy in 4Q22 (from 5.2% in 3Q22), while exports of goods and services fell by 0.1% (from 11.6%). Within domestic demand, final private demand growth stood at 5.0% (from 6.1%), with private consumption moderating (4.5%, from 6.4%) and private investment at 7.1% (from 4.6%). In turn, final public demand growth stood at 3.9% (from 1.7%), with public gross fixed investment rebounding (11.5%, from -1.0%).


At the margin, domestic demand expanded 1.0% qoq/sa in 4Q22 (from 0.4% in 3Q22), driven by a rebound in gross fixed investment: both private (2.2%, from 0.4%) and public (8.9%, from 0.0%). While private consumption expanded at a still decent pace of 0.5% qoq/sa in 4Q22, it moderated from the strong rates in 1H22 (1Q22: 2.9% and 2Q22: 0.9%). Public demand expanded 1.1% qoq/sa in 4Q22 (from 0.6% in 3Q22), while private demand expanded 0.9% (from 0.3%). Exports of goods & services fell by 5.0% qoq/sa in 4Q22 (from 1.8% in 3Q22).


Our GDP growth forecast for this year is at 1.8%. After a likely still decent GDP expansion in 1Q23, we think activity will soften more clearly in the last three quarters of this year dragged by a softer expansion in the U.S..


Julio Ruiz