The flash estimate of GDP growth for 1Q23, published by Mexico’s statistics institute (INEGI), came in at 3.9% yoy (from 3.6% in 4Q22), above our forecast of 3.7% and market expectations of 3.3% (as per Bloomberg). According to calendar & seasonally adjusted data reported by the statistics institute (INEGI), GDP in 1Q23 grew at a similar pace as the unadjusted series (3.8%). Looking at the breakdown, also using calendar & seasonally adjusted data, GDP expansion was driven mainly by the services sector which stood at 4.3% yoy in 1Q23 (from 3.5% in 4Q22), while the industrial and primary sectors stood at 2.6% (from 3.2%) and 3.1% (from 6.3%), respectively.
At the margin, activity also expanded at a strong pace in the first quarter of the year. Using seasonally adjusted figures, GDP expanded 1.1% qoq in 1Q23 (from 0.5% in 4Q22), supported by a solid expansion in the services sector of 1.5% (from 0.1%), while industrial production grew at a decent 0.7% (from 0.5%).
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The figure puts an upward bias to our GDP growth forecast for this year of 1.8%. Still, we expect activity to soften in the last three quarters of the year given a slowdown in the U.S. economy and a tight monetary policy stance.
Julio Ruiz