The monthly GDP (IGAE) increased 4.4% yoy in January (from 2.6% in December), above our forecast and market consensus, as per Bloomberg survey (3.3% and 3.0%, respectively). Using calendar-adjusted figures (published by the Statistics Institute), the monthly GDP expanded at a slower pace (3.8%), taking the quarterly annual rate to 3.4% in January (from 3.7% in 4Q22). Looking at the breakdown (using calendar adjusted figures), the quarterly annual rate of industrial output was 3.1% in January (from 3.3% in 4Q22), while activity in the services sector grew 3.4% (from 3.7%).
Sequentially GDP expanded by 0.6% mom in January led by the services sector (1.2% mom/sa), while industrial production remained flat, and primary activities fell by 5.7% mom/sa. The quarter-over-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized growth rate (qoq/saar) stood at 1.2% in January (from 1.8% in 4Q22), with manufacturing and services sectors at 0.7% (from -1.0%) and 0.2% (from 0.6%), respectively.
We recently revised upward our GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.8%, from 1.3% in our previous scenario.
Julio Ruiz