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Activity momentum is also soft

Juan Carlos Barboza & Diego Ciongo


The monthly GDP proxy expanded 1.7% yoy in November (from 2.0% in October), above our forecast of 1.0%, but below market expectations of 2.3% (as per Bloomberg). The quarterly annual rate of monthly GDP stood at 1.8% in November (from 1.7% in 3Q22), driven by non-primary activity (2.3%, from 2.4%), while primary activity stood at 1.1% (from -1.3%). Non-primary activity is supported by services and construction sectors, while primary activity was dragged by volatile fishing output.

Activity momentum is soft at the margin. Using seasonally adjusted series, published by Peru’s statistics institute, the monthly GDP fell by 0.2% mom in November, taking the quarter over quarter (non-annualized) growth rate to 0.2%.

We expect a below-potential GDP for 2022 and 2023, with growth rates of 2.5% and 1.8%, respectively. Weak global growth, a tighter monetary-policy stance, lower terms of trade, and persistent political uncertainty are strong headwinds for domestic activity.

Julio Ruiz