Julio Ruiz
15/12/2022
The monthly GDP proxy expanded 2.0% yoy in October (from 1.7% in September), below our forecast of 2.6% and broadly in line with market expectations of 1.9% (as per Bloomberg). The quarterly annual rate of monthly GDP stood at 1.8% in October (from 1.7% in 3Q22), driven by non-primary activity (2.5%, from 2.4%), while primary activity stood at a soft -0.1% (from -1.3%). Non-primary activity is supported by services and construction sectors, while mining momentum was soft associated to persistent social conflicts.
Activity momentum is weak at the margin. Using seasonally adjusted series, published by Peru’s statistics institute, the monthly GDP fell by 0.2% mom in October, taking the quarter over quarter (non-annualized) growth rate to 0.2% in October (from -0.1% in 3Q22).
We expect GDP growth of 2.5% for 2022. Weaker global growth, a tighter monetary-policy stance, lower terms of trade and persistent uncertainty from the political scenario are strong headwinds for domestic activity.
Julio Ruiz